[NL2-NL10] rush AKo blind battle

    • Magijec
      Joined: 06.10.2007 Posts: 91
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.02/$0.05 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)

      Known players:
      BB (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is BB with A, K.
      7 folds, SB calls $0.03, Hero raises to $0.20, SB calls $0.15.

      Flop: ($0.4) J, 2, 9 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.30, SB calls $0.30.

      Turn: ($1) 8 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero checks.

      River: ($1) 3 (2 players)
      SB bets $7.27(All-In), Hero calls $7.12.

      Final Pot: $15.39.

      Results follow:

      Hero shows a flush, king high(Ac Kh).
      SB shows a flush, ace high(Ah 7h).

      SB wins with a flush, ace high(Ah 7h).

      Is it possible to fold this against unknown?
  • 4 replies
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510

      Sure. We have the 2nd nuts but it's still a bluff-catcher against most players. Psychotically aggressive players that are capable of overbet shoving that river with a pure bluff would likely have stabbed at the pot earlier since you've shown weakness all the way, and the other players usually never overbet unless they have the mortal nuts.

      Maths-wise, since you're getting like 1.14:1 or so pot odds, villain needs to have a worse hand like 87% of the time for you to profitably call. This is just not happening.

      Hope it helps.
    • louc
      Joined: 21.05.2007 Posts: 42
      I must say, that I really like to read your evaluations, as they always contain something worth noting. Saying that though, I'm not sure about one thing. I can't see Hero showing weakness all the way. The first time we showed weakness was checking turn behind. But IMO, checking turn behind is the correct play here. In my eyes Villain showed more weakness. Completing PF, ugh. He's taking classical “Me haz two cards lets see teh flop” line. It seems Villain is not psychotically aggressive, so we should give him more credit on river.

      Now to the math. Warning. I'm really a math nit or math nazzi or w/e you want. This would probably sound like a rant so I apologize in advance.

      It seems like we are getting 1.14:1 pot odds but in reality we are getting about 1:1 because of the rake. But that's not my point. The point is that 1.14:1 is not 87%. You don't calculate it like 1/1.14. You can't replace : with / and flip numbers or read it from right to left. If the odds were 1:1 then you would say that Villain needs to have a worse hand like 100% of the time to warrant the call. We would be in pretty terrible spot there. And if rake exceeds $1 the odds would be something like 0.xy:1 and so hero should have worse hand more than 100% of the time for us to breakeven. Wait, what!? 1:1 computes to 50%. You need to win in the same amount of time that you lose. Coin flip situation. If you get 2:1 odds you need to win only once for every 2 loses to breakeven. In % that would be 1/(1+2) ~ 33%.

      x:y odds → y/(x+y)

      Or you can simply say if we call his AI on the river the pot will be $1 + 2*$7.12 = $15.24 (forgetting the rake here). We put in $7.12 so we should win in 7.12/15.24 ~ 47% to breakeven.

      Back to the river action. OP before you call his AI you should write in chat box something like “You're going busto. I have QhTh. Buahaha!” Another nitty observation (I'm not just math nit. I guess I'm just a nit.), we don't have 2nd nuts but only 4th nuts. We should probably fold against unknown but in the heat of the battle I'm putting my spewy nit hat on and call his AI just that I can say “I knew it. I knew all the time that you have it! They always suckout on me! Online poker is rigged!” Take a note: don't call his AI!
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510

      I didn't say checking the turn was a bad play or anything, just that it showed weakness. And aggressive fish don't really cares what they look like, they only care how you look like. If you don't bet when the flush gets there you don't have it, it doesn't matter to them whether they could have it or not. It's not really useful to you either to know he limped preflop unless you believe he raises Ax hands.

      Obviously I'm wrong and you're right about the maths, and since I've spent about 1 hour a week talking about that specific mistake for the past year I must be retarded for that 87% thing not to have bothered me when I wrote that post. Let's just say I was drunk or something? :p I don't really care about it being a rant or not, if nobody voices up when I say stupid things it's no good :> At least it proves people are reading these things.

      The break-even % and the 2nd-4th nuts thing doesn't really change your decision on the river or at least it shouldn't, if you're often calling those things off maybe you're better off sticking with the bigger percentage :=p

      Hope it helps.
    • louc
      Joined: 21.05.2007 Posts: 42
      I didn't say you said checking the turn was bad play. :P What I was trying to say was that if Villain is the kind of aggressive player that stabs at first opportunity whenever he smells weakness then in this hand that could only happen on the river. So we can't judge villain's aggressiveness based on the fact that he hasn't stabbed before. Still, I agree, that there is no reason for us to believe that villain is psychotically aggressive (I like that term). At uNL there's a saying “They never play back at you” which is easy to understand but sometimes hard to “apply”. At least I have problems occasionally. You opened up my eyes. Only psychotically aggressive players are capable of playing back at you and they are easy to spot.

      You should stop talking math when you're drunk, ldo. ;)

      I didn't say that break-even % or 2nd-4th nuts thing changes our decision on the river. :P Your advice of sticking with bigger percentage is really good and I'll try and misapply the math in next sessions to see if it helps me spew less.