[NL2-NL10] representing ace on the turn

    • cutegoldfish
      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 4,335
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)

      Known players:
      CO (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is CO with 8, 9.
      2 folds, Hero raises to $0.40, BU folds, SB calls $0.35, BB calls $0.30.

      Flop: ($1.2) 2, 5, 2 (3 players)
      SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks.

      Turn: ($1.2) A (3 players)
      SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $0.70, SB calls $0.70, BB folds.

      River: ($2.6) 4 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero checks.

      Final Pot: $2.6.

      sb is a fish with 50% pfr and bb is a reg. could the bet on the turn have reasonably pushed them off the hand? does thier checking on both the flop and turn signal sufficient weakness?
  • 1 reply
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510

      I think I would bet the flop. SB's fish range is wide enough that he missed this board very often and not all fish peel every overcard hand on these boards, some of them just fold if they don't have a pair. BB's range would also be somewhat wide and filled with speculative stuff because of the SB fish calling and BB having position on him, so he too will have whiffed that board somewhat often. To compound everything you have 9-high so you'll never be good at showdown, I think it's just better to throw in a c-bet until you get a reason not to.

      As played on the turn it's a pretty nasty spot to evaluate. There is a good chance you still get BB to fold, most multi-tabling regs just won't care at that point if they have anything marginal when the A comes they'll just get out of the way. The fish on the other hand will often look you up with anything for no particular reason, they like to call and you didn't bet the flop, so while it's clear to us tags that your range is Ax heavy, it just never occurs to the fish.

      It's very useful for you to have an idea of what SB does with his range on the turn when the flop is checked around. Is he aggressive? Would he bet bluffs? The more he would, the less fold equity you have. Would he bet Ax? The more he would, the more fold equity you have since he'll have top pair less often. At the end of the day you probably should still fire a bluff when in doubt, it's likely still profitable or very close to neutral EV, and you still have 9-high, but understanding that it's somewhat likely the fish won't fold to just one bet is important. Make sure you look up the hand he called you with and keep that in mind for later decisions when you need to choose between firing 0/1/2 barrels.

      Hope it helps.