[NL2-NL10] Nl10 AA UTG

    • YoungCub
      YoungCub
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 40
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)

      Known players:
      UTG1 (Hero):
      $10.45
      UTG2:
      $27.92
      MP1:
      $3.45
      MP2:
      $10.62
      MP3:
      $13.12
      CO:
      $3.50
      BU:
      $12.54
      SB:
      $3.50
      BB:
      $11.18


      Preflop: Hero is UTG1 with A, A.
      Hero raises to $0.35, UTG2 calls $0.35, 2 folds, MP3 calls $0.35, CO folds, BU calls $0.35, 2 folds.

      Flop: ($1.55) J, 2, K (4 players)
      Hero bets $1.00, UTG2 folds, MP3 calls $1.00, BU folds.

      Turn: ($3.55) T (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.50, MP3 raises to $11.77(All-In), Hero ????

      VPIP 23
      PFR 8
      WTSD 24
      AF 1.25
      Cbet F 66.67%
      Fold F CBet 55.56%

      Any idea what should have been the right move?
  • 2 replies
    • vedran2006
      vedran2006
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.09.2008 Posts: 34
      i think fold. opp is not aggressive and turn completed straight draw + he might have any set (except probably KK, and maybe JJ). Also possible two pairs against which you still have outs...
      most probable it is a straight, two pair he would probably just call.
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      Hi,


      This is close actually. The "problem" is that a lot of players will actually shove in that spot with stuff like JhXh or Qx with a pair, because they improved and it looks like their hand is invulnerable now and so on.

      Playing around with the Equilator a bit, you can actually have a much as 54% equity in that spot if he's shoving all those hands with a redraw, even if you get him every two pair hands and sets possible


      Board: Kh2sJc Th
      Dead:
      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 53,713 % 52,993 % 1,440 % 45,567 % AhAc
      Player 2: 46,287 % 45,567 % 1,440 % 52,993 % KK-TT, 22, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, Jh9h, Jh8h, AQo-AJo, KTo+, QTo+, JTo


      I think it's a call given how loose he is if he's at all capable of shoving a redraw in there, even if you remove some hands you beat you'll still to go down 30% equity to actually find a fold given your pot odds


      Board: Kh2sJc Th
      Dead:

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 30,174 % 29,594 % 1,161 % 69,246 % AhAc
      Player 2: 69,826 % 69,246 % 1,161 % 29,594 % KK, JJ-TT, 22, AQs, KJs-KTs, AQo, KTo+


      I think it's way too tight for that guy.



      Hope it helps.