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[NL2-NL10] Nl10 AA UTG

    • YoungCub
      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 40
      Hand converted with online hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)

      Known players:
      UTG1 (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is UTG1 with A, A.
      Hero raises to $0.35, UTG2 calls $0.35, 2 folds, MP3 calls $0.35, CO folds, BU calls $0.35, 2 folds.

      Flop: ($1.55) J, 2, K (4 players)
      Hero bets $1.00, UTG2 folds, MP3 calls $1.00, BU folds.

      Turn: ($3.55) T (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.50, MP3 raises to $11.77(All-In), Hero ????

      VPIP 23
      PFR 8
      WTSD 24
      AF 1.25
      Cbet F 66.67%
      Fold F CBet 55.56%

      Any idea what should have been the right move?
  • 2 replies
    • vedran2006
      Joined: 13.09.2008 Posts: 34
      i think fold. opp is not aggressive and turn completed straight draw + he might have any set (except probably KK, and maybe JJ). Also possible two pairs against which you still have outs...
      most probable it is a straight, two pair he would probably just call.
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510

      This is close actually. The "problem" is that a lot of players will actually shove in that spot with stuff like JhXh or Qx with a pair, because they improved and it looks like their hand is invulnerable now and so on.

      Playing around with the Equilator a bit, you can actually have a much as 54% equity in that spot if he's shoving all those hands with a redraw, even if you get him every two pair hands and sets possible

      Board: Kh2sJc Th
      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 53,713 % 52,993 % 1,440 % 45,567 % AhAc
      Player 2: 46,287 % 45,567 % 1,440 % 52,993 % KK-TT, 22, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, Jh9h, Jh8h, AQo-AJo, KTo+, QTo+, JTo

      I think it's a call given how loose he is if he's at all capable of shoving a redraw in there, even if you remove some hands you beat you'll still to go down 30% equity to actually find a fold given your pot odds

      Board: Kh2sJc Th

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 30,174 % 29,594 % 1,161 % 69,246 % AhAc
      Player 2: 69,826 % 69,246 % 1,161 % 29,594 % KK, JJ-TT, 22, AQs, KJs-KTs, AQo, KTo+

      I think it's way too tight for that guy.

      Hope it helps.