[NL2-NL10] 99 river bet

    • Bigniux
      Bigniux
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.01.2009 Posts: 2,098
      Opponent's stats(62 hands): VP$IP 16%, PFR 6,5% cbet: 75%
      Agrresive on flop and passive later.

      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.01/$0.02 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)

      Known players:
      UTG2:
      $2.46
      MP1:
      $1.59
      MP2:
      $2.39
      MP3:
      $2.14
      CO:
      $2.10
      BU (Hero):
      $2.68
      SB:
      $1.80
      BB:
      $1.93


      Preflop: Hero is BU with 9, 9.
      UTG2 raises to $0.06, MP1 calls $0.06, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.06, 2 folds.

      Flop: ($0.21) 4, K, 6 (3 players)
      UTG2 bets $0.10, MP1 folds, Hero calls $0.10.

      Turn: ($0.41) 7 (2 players)
      UTG2 checks, Hero bets $0.18, UTG2 calls $0.18.

      River: ($0.77) T (2 players)
      UTG2 checks, Hero bets $0.44, UTG2 folds, Hero gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $0.77.

      Flop is fine, on turn i think the bet is too small, should be ~0,30$ on turn i put him on spades draw(AQ,AJ,AT) or JJ, cause he's folding with nothing. What about river bet? (I know it's small :) ) It's possible that he had best hand on the river so i bet to drive him out if he has it. Is this good play?
  • 4 replies
    • kymupa
      kymupa
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364
      Make it around $0,3 on the turn.

      You really don't have to bet on the river because he is not calling with anything worse there.
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      Hi,


      I think I'd rather check back the turn and call a river bet.

      It's possible he shows up with TT-QQ/Kx even after checking that turn given how tight he is and his postflop passiveness, and he likely doesn't have many 4x/5x/6x/7x in his range either, so the value of betting the turn is thin at best without further reads. Weak players usually bluff with a bet/check/bet a lot more often than tags do, so giving him a chance to make a decision with airball hands on the river is usually a good thing.

      As played on the river you're actually trying to bluff a passive player off a hand with a relatively small bet, I don't really think it's a winning strategy at nl2, especially when there is actually a chance you hand has been best all along. I'd rather try and get to showdown with it, and bluff hands with no value instead if you somehow have some of those.


      Hope it helps.
    • Bigniux
      Bigniux
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.01.2009 Posts: 2,098
      Thanks for replies. I misused the term passive i think, he was mostly folding on later streets. Passive is for those who like calling?
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      Hi,


      Passive is for players that don't like to be aggressive, so they rarely bet or raise, which means when they do they usually have the mortal nuts, and when they don't it doesn't mean they have nothing. That usually results in them folding a lot or calling a lot instead, it's a byproduct. The former fit a weak-tight/passive category, the later are usually classified as loose/passive, also known as "calling stations".

      If he's mostly folding on later streets it's all the more reasons not to bet the turn in the first place, tho it might as played make it a better river bluff spot for you. The reason I don't really like it is because it's not uncommon for such players to start check/calling hands as strong as top pair on the turn, just in fear of getting raised, and they're not folding that.


      Hope it helps.