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[NL20-NL50] NL 25 99 bad card on the river

    • hov100
      hov100
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.03.2009 Posts: 57
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.1/$0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)

      Known players:
      BU:
      $26.80
      SB:
      $22.87
      BB:
      $26.54
      MP3:
      $27.94
      CO (Hero):
      $25.00


      Preflop: Hero is CO with 9, 9.
      MP3 raises to $0.75, Hero calls $0.75, 3 folds.

      Flop: ($1.85) 4, Q, Q (2 players)
      MP3 checks, Hero bets $1.00, MP3 calls $1.00.

      Turn: ($3.85) 9 (2 players)
      MP3 checks, Hero bets $2.50, MP3 calls $2.50.

      River: ($8.85) 4 (2 players)
      MP3 checks, Hero bets $4.00, MP3 raises to $10.00, Hero folds, MP3 gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $12.85.

      MP3 is 34/10/2 on 80 hands
      Is this played okay?
      Should I check the river?
  • 2 replies
    • Anger86
      Anger86
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.08.2008 Posts: 511
      Hi hov100,

      I think, I'm calling a Villain's raise on the R, as played.
      That's because I get 22,85:6 = close to 4:1 odds,
      which is not that bad as he could be sometimes bluffing with Ax
      or even value-raising 4x.

      Here is a little equation: (9h9d vs 4x, Qx, without Ax)
      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Hero : 95.636 % 95.636 % 0.000 % 4.364 % 9h9d
      Villain : 4.364 % 4.364 % 0.000 % 95.636 % Q2s+, 42s+, Q2o+, 42o+


      I like c/c line better on the river as he could bet Ax as a bluff relatively often there
      and if he has a Qx hand, then we keep the pot small. Big hands = big pot, small hands = small pot.
      It also seems like a very small pot for a Qx hand here.
      IMO, opponents mostly would make pot bigger at least on the T with a Qx.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I would also valuebet river and likely also call c/r since 4x imo has the same range than Qx and also he would often c/r turn with Qx