[NL20-NL50] NL 25, 6-max, 88

    • Anger86
      Anger86
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.08.2008 Posts: 511
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.1/$0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)

      Known players:
      CO:
      $1.83
      BU:
      $78.15
      SB (Hero):
      $28.95
      BB:
      $30.40
      MP3:
      $24.00


      Preflop: Hero is SB with 8, 8.
      2 folds, BU calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.25, BB folds, BU calls $1.00.

      Flop: ($2.75) 7, 4, 5 (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.75, BU calls $1.75.

      Turn: ($6.25) T (2 players)
      Hero bets $3.50, BU calls $3.50.

      River: ($13.25) J (2 players)
      Hero checks, BU bets $11.00, Hero calls $11.00.

      Final Pot: $35.25.


      Villain's stats:
      Hands: 55
      VPIP: 65
      PFR: 25
      Fold-CBET: 63
      Agr: 2.3 (R - 8.2, didn't saw that at game though)
      WTSD: 32%
      W$SD: 56%
      Reads: SVB (strong value bets), ChD (chasing draws), TP=nuts


      Question is:
      How likely is that I am ahead on the R?

      Villain is chasing draws -> that is why I value-bet F&T (against 67, 65, XhXh, ).
      I also have a gutshot.
      R - here is the problem that XhXh type hands can actually contain T or J,
      which is TP, which is close to the nuts for Villain.
  • 3 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      consider his bet size not that often
      Since he bet that big it is often bluff than made hand, but I won´t really think he is going to bluff that big or maybe even bluff at all, since once you c/c turn it is very likely you´re going to c/c river at that player eyes
      So if he has any showdown value or even miss draw I think he would often check back river
      So going to showdown ono the river is imo a little thin. you should find more profitable spots against that player
      And since vpip is that large I think you can also bet yourself for value on the turn. Then he would also likely not going to bluff that river that often, since then it is more reasonable that you could hold there hand that is going to call river bet
    • Anger86
      Anger86
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.08.2008 Posts: 511
      Originally posted by Kaitz20
      consider his bet size not that often
      Since he bet that big it is often bluff than made hand, but I won´t really think he is going to bluff that big or maybe even bluff at all, since once you c/c turn it is very likely you´re going to c/c river at that player eyes
      So if he has any showdown value or even miss draw I think he would often check back river
      So going to showdown ono the river is imo a little thin. you should find more profitable spots against that player
      And since vpip is that large I think you can also bet yourself for value on the turn. Then he would also likely not going to bluff that river that often, since then it is more reasonable that you could hold there hand that is going to call river bet

      Thank you for answer, but I was betting T actually not calling.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      yeah, misread hand
      betting turn is fine
      and river it is then close: don´t expect him to bluff that often, but if you want to be hero then why not, since flushdraw missed :P