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[NL2-NL10] 45 suited , Semibluff

    • RMB
      Joined: 29.03.2008 Posts: 599
      PartyPoker, $0.01/0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash Games, 6 Players
      Hand Converter by

      MP (UTG): $2.82
      UTG (UTG+1): $1
      SB (SB): $2.63
      BB (BB): $2.07
      CO (CO): $2.18
      BU (Button): $1.96

      Dealt to BB 4:diamond: 5:diamond:

      UTG raises to $.08, CO calls $.08, BB calls $.06

      Flop: ($.25) 7:diamond: 6:heart: j:diamond: (6 Players)
      UTG bets $.16, (1 folds), BB raises to $.58, UTG calls $.42

      Turn: ($1.41) Q:heart: (5 Players)
      UTG checks, Hero.. ?

      UTG: (26/22/3.4/22/390) [VPIP/PFR/AF/WTS/Hands]

      I find this hand very interesting and im looking forward to opinions. ( I created this situation from a article) Also wondering how important stats would be in a situation like the semi-bluff on the Flop
  • 1 reply
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510

      Hard to say, it depends a lot on how UTG views you and how he plays on blank turns after calling a flop raise. Since his stats look decent and yet he's playing nl2 somehow, it's a conundrum :p

      On the one hand we usually don't have much fold equity since all the draws missed and UTG shouldn't really call the flop raise out of position with a hand that doesn't call it off on such a turn card (even if he's not thinking that much, most players won't have the will power to lay down a J at these stakes). On the other hand we're barely ever in awful shape and we have 5-high unimproved so checking back looks pretty awful.

      Since you don't usually find good slag players at nl2, your default play should just be to shove that turn and hope he makes an incorrect fold with whatever 1-pair hand or draw he peeled the flop with.

      Important stats on the flop usually revolves around UTG's c-bet % and pfr, the more he open-raises preflop and c-bets the flop, the better the chance that he doesn't have much on that board, the more often your check/raise flop jam turn line will work. You usually won't have a big enough sample to look at stats like call flop c/r % and the likes given the size of the player pool.

      Hope it helps.