[NL2-NL10] NL10 - QTs - Naked bluff

    • StaticMoth
      Joined: 22.05.2009 Posts: 2,642
      moksha33 (BB): $11.10
      luckey-J (UTG): $14.20
      lickmycalls4 (UTG+1): $9.90
      Really_Mad (CO): $9.50
      Sanczezzo (Button): $12.03
      HERO (SB): $22.15

      Dealt to HERO Q:club: T:club:

      (4 folds), HERO raises to $.40, moksha33 calls $.30

      Flop: ($.85) 2:heart: 6:club: 8:diamond: (2 Players)
      HERO checks, moksha33 bets $.80, HERO calls $.80

      Turn: ($2.45) 7:heart: (2 Players)
      HERO checks, moksha33 bets $1.10, HERO raises to $2.45, moksha33 calls $1.35

      River: ($7.35) 2:spade: (2 Players)
      HERO bets $3.50, (1 folds), HERO returns $3.50

      [color=red]HERO Showed [/color]Q:club: T:club:
      HERO wins $6.82

      I was playing a pretty tight solid game at that table at that moment, and took down the pots occasionally with naked bluffs and this one got me thinking a bit ...

      Here I was thinking I was uberclever, only betting half a pot on the river, making it look like a valuebet and at the same time costing me a lot less than betting near the pot in case I got called ...

      And then I got to thinking ... My check raise on the turn is obv pretty strong ... And him calling it is a pretty strong indicator that he's planning on calling me down pretty much ... So if I had a monster and really valuebetting there, then half a pot bet wouldn't make any sense actually, coz the guy indicated that he's calling so I should take maximum value there and bet the pot really?

      He probably had like a pair of sixes there or smth and donks don't think about bet sizing or anything anyways ... but I'm thinking in theoretical terms and in terms of if I would be playing limits where players DO think about those things?

      Or in case I have the nuts, should I then bet the pot on the river because he has indicated that he's gonna call me down or should I bet ubersmall to seem weakish in which case, I'd probably get raised by second best hands, or maybe even induce a bluff ... and worst case scenario, get tiny thinvalue from exactly those pair of sixes, which would otherwise fold?

      Lot of ramble and nonsense, just trying to get some ideas/thoughts/opinions going to ponder about :f_p:

      [Lol, just now noticed that I was actually semi-bluffing there, having a gutshot :f_biggrin: ]
  • 2 replies
    • amplifyd
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 1,769
      Although I would prefer to do it on like 7 :club: turn I suppose its ok - if you know he can fold :P (certainly not common within NL10 players :D )

      I don't really like your value bet bluff size on the river - I myself would bet like $4.3 - this is because I think 3.5 looks too weak to be valuebet and is often a bluff. But yeah you're right they probably don't think about these so giving yourself slightly better risk:reward ratio is ok - plus you have tons of FE after your check raise on turn imo.
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510

      You raised preflop, check/called 862r and check/raised an offsuit 7 turn small. Since you should usually c-bet or check/fold your air and c-bet or check/raise your strongest draws, either you're getting unbelievably tricky with TT+/sets or you have like exactly 77/76, maybe some hands like Ah6h, mixed with some complete fancy play syndrome bluffs.

      BB calling preflop and betting the flop when checked to doesn't have to mean much, a decent player would do that with anything remotely playable preflop and would likely take a stab with pretty much anything on the flop too, except maybe marginal pairs not good enough to valuebet or decent A-high hands he thinks he can take to showdown. That said he did bet very close to pot, which could mean he's protecting with something like a top pair or he's making big bluffs in general, who knows. On the turn he bets again kind of small, which I don't think he does with anything strong he wants to get stacks in with. Best I can think of is something like 99/98 that is still valuebetting against your very weak range but doesn't want to get raised all-in either. Makes sense for him to call the check/raise with those hands too.

      So on the river that leaves you with the task of making both bluffs that can fold out those marginal ~top pairs hands and making valuebets that these very same hands can actually call. Depending on whether you're worried about being exploitable or not you can make it the same size or not, but I don't think you should worry about that until much higher stakes and without history you should pretty much just forget it. I'd bet $3 if I was valuebetting and around $4.5 if I was bluffing.

      Hope it helps.