your longest downer? feeling raped here

    • erptech
      erptech
      Platinum
      Joined: 15.03.2008 Posts: 659
      hey guys, what is your longest downswing?
      i played quite a lot over the last couple of months, and frankly i'm starting to feel jinxed

      first i played nl100. then i got owned so brutally by setups and bad beats, so i moved down to NL50. then i got owned some more, but still managed to survive. nevertheless, i decided to play it safe and moved to NL30 until the bad run is over. However, after 3 months i'm still finishing my sessions under EV, and it seems to be getting worse.
      any ideas, how long could it last? does anyone honestly think that its possible for my winnings line to meet with ev line some day?


  • 12 replies
    • Hahaownedlolz
      Hahaownedlolz
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.04.2009 Posts: 1,755
      ouch.. that's tough luck.. You should really just try to play your A game, and keep reviewing hands and try to improve. Your $3k below ev but it doesn't take away the fact even your EV is below breakeven..
      there's really no answer to your question, but the longer you keep a negative mindset and don't review your hands and try to improve the longer it will last.(not saying you do, but just in general)
    • erptech
      erptech
      Platinum
      Joined: 15.03.2008 Posts: 659
      i am aware of my game skill deficiency, and just to say in my defence, i do analise and i am quite satisfied with my earnings, its more or less in frame of expectancy, with rakeback included and high volumes that i play.

      it can't really be seen on this graph, but my NL30 winrate over 80 k hands, 12 tabling is solid 3.9/100, while adjusted EV is 5.0/100.

      however, i'm not satisfied with my game there, as this neverending downswing/tilt reduces my play level, and i'm aware of it...

      but that is not an issue here, i just want to know how many of you thinks EV calculation is accurate and relevant, and if so, in what amount can i blame it for my gutted winrate.
    • ihufa
      ihufa
      Gold
      Joined: 18.03.2008 Posts: 3,323
      playing breakeven makes variance dangerous. but i don't think 35 buyins in 230k hands is a whole lot
    • roswellx
      roswellx
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.12.2008 Posts: 599
      It's big blinds not buyins :)
    • Kruppe
      Kruppe
      Black
      Joined: 20.02.2008 Posts: 2,144
      :( sorry about to hear about such a huge downswing.

      HEM alev is accurate, but it's only part of the story, it ignores a lot of things that constitute your actual EV, so you could say it's not completely relevant.

      however, it's statistically closer to your EV than your winnings, and over 200k hands alev usually gives a good indication of your EV.

      what's weird is that the swings in your alev line are so huge. usually a 4000bb downswing in the alev line means you're a clear losing player, and the inverse: a ~5000bb upswing in the alev line in about 80k hands, like on your graph, usually means you're clearly +EV. but it is possible that the huge swings in your alev line are just variance.

      the graph does suggest that you've run very bad, but it also suggests that you are ~breakeven EV-wise, although you can interpret it differently if you know that you improved after certain points in the graph or had stretches of tilt, e.g. if you know that for the first 30k hands you were on some kind of perma-tilt and are less tilty nowadays plus you've improved a lot skill-wise since the first 30k hands, then the graph suggests that you are +EV.

      i'm down several k in cashgames so far this year after 160k hands or so, but my alev is at +3000bb or something (which is still bad), and my alev line is less swingy than yours.

      a downswing can go on for ever, it just gets less likely.

      it's possible that the lines will meet, but running at expectation alev-wise from now on would mean the gap between winnings and alev staying exactly the same, not closing.
    • caltabiano
      caltabiano
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.03.2007 Posts: 1,992
      Well, I'm a lot under EV for over 550k hands and the graph doesn't even show any sign that it's planning a meet up of the lines :D
    • Joshquan
      Joshquan
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.01.2009 Posts: 479
      its statistically unlikely for you to have fell far from the ev line but therefore statistically unlikely that you will go back up to meet it, it is just as likely that you will go equally further away from it again.

      Past events dont affect the future in this case, be happy to run ev from now on, which for the last 50-100k hands you have been doing.
    • erptech
      erptech
      Platinum
      Joined: 15.03.2008 Posts: 659
      Originally posted by caltabiano
      Well, I'm a lot under EV for over 550k hands and the graph doesn't even show any sign that it's planning a meet up of the lines :D
      wow, thats encouraging :D


      @ kruppe

      yeah, exacly, in the first 30 k hands i was playing badly and on super tilt, on a limit i deffinitely couldn't handle. i did improve, and i would say a lot since then.
      right now, i'm not so worried about me being winning or losing player, just the fact that month after month i end up being under ev and with no sign of getting normal (normal=B/E). i don't actually expect my winnings to skyrocket up compared to aiev, just wanna know what is your exp, what would be the reasonable volume for such thing to occur, because in my understanding its inevitable statistically.
    • mafaz
      mafaz
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.12.2007 Posts: 222
      EV shows quite little. If your running bad, getting all in with KK vs AA a lot. Losing to sets with AA and so on that EV line will never be positive, but id doesnt mean your playing bad....

      Flips... when you win them your above your EV line when loose them your below. I dont think it shows much.... Maybe in 250K hands yes.

      I dunno that ev line is overrated you shouldnt pay attention to it.
    • alejandrosh
      alejandrosh
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.07.2008 Posts: 4,346
      I don't really know what's the reasoning in looking at the all in ev thing.

      1. we can't control running above or under it
      2. the idea is to always be improving so being reminded that I suck isn't going to help me.

      I wan't the all in EV line out of HEM :D
    • NightFrostaSS
      NightFrostaSS
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2008 Posts: 5,255
      Originally posted by alejandrosh
      I don't really know what's the reasoning in looking at the all in ev thing.

      1. we can't control running above or under it
      2. the idea is to always be improving so being reminded that I suck isn't going to help me.

      I wan't the all in EV line out of HEM :D
      QFT i hate that AIEV crap
    • Kruppe
      Kruppe
      Black
      Joined: 20.02.2008 Posts: 2,144
      5 million hands, and it will probably look like the lines are very close :)