How much should you bet?

    • Hahaownedlolz
      Hahaownedlolz
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      Joined: 24.04.2009 Posts: 1,755
      This isn't really specifically about sng strategie but more poker in general.



      How much % of the pot should you bet for an opponent's flush/OESD so it's -EV for them?

      And how much % of the pot do you bet when you know for sure you opponent has a flush/OESD on the flop or turn ?



      When i know my opponent has a flush/OESD i usualy bet big. Along the lines of 50-80% of the pot on each street.
  • 13 replies
    • 8979687
      8979687
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      Joined: 11.11.2008 Posts: 2,225
      http://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/sng/761/1
    • Hahaownedlolz
      Hahaownedlolz
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      Originally posted by 8979687
      http://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/sng/761/1
      I'm looking for the exact math behind it. Which isn't in that article..
    • Unam
      Unam
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      Joined: 17.08.2006 Posts: 8,999
      Hi Hahaownedlolz,
      if you know for sure that he has an OESD + FD, then is the favourite to win the hand against any pair. You should try to see the turn for free, cause he should push your raises with his 56% chance of winning against your overpair. OR you should bet an amount, that leaves you with a stack, that would force him to make a bad call on the turn if you pushed there (I don't think these stacksizes arepossible in SNGs)
      From turn to river, he has 34%, so you should not give him 1to3 odds on his call, so you should bet more than half the pot on the turn.

      Manu
    • Hahaownedlolz
      Hahaownedlolz
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      Originally posted by Unam
      Hi Hahaownedlolz,
      if you know for sure that he has an OESD + FD, then is the favourite to win the hand against any pair. You should try to see the turn for free, cause he should push your raises with his 56% chance of winning against your overpair. OR you should bet an amount, that leaves you with a stack, that would force him to make a bad call on the turn if you pushed there (I don't think these stacksizes arepossible in SNGs)
      From turn to river, he has 34%, so you should not give him 1to3 odds on his call, so you should bet more than half the pot on the turn.

      Manu
      Thanks for replying but i actualy meant an OESD or flush draw xD . Besides that it's pretty hard to put an opponent on both. And if the flop is very dangerous that it's likely and i only have top pair.. Well i actualy don't know if i would bet or not for sure. Depends on that particular situation i guess.


      Anyway, isn't it about 20% chance to hit your flush draw from flop -> turn and turn -> river ? so that means if the pot is 1000 chips you have to bet atleast 250+ chips ? And if you have a flush yourself that you shouldn't call bets when someone bets more then 20% of the pot?
    • Unam
      Unam
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      HI, hahaownedlolz,
      I think it is going to help you more, when I give you these two links and you ask me if you have further questions:
      http://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/bss/1563/1/
      http://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/bss/1564/1

      Manu
    • Hahaownedlolz
      Hahaownedlolz
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      Joined: 24.04.2009 Posts: 1,755
      NVM this thread. I was looking for a mathematical explanation. I know odds and outs. No offense but if your going to link me to some article don't bother.. i've read them i know the probability of hitting a flush/OESD. I just wanted to make sure i got it right, and how much EXACTLY it is profitable to call with a FD or OESD and how much you should atleast bet.

      If you read this, feel free to still ANSWER the questions i asked. If you don't want to bother giving a mathematical explanation and aren't going to answer my questions and just link me to some article then please don't bother.
    • noclaninator
      noclaninator
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      Joined: 01.12.2008 Posts: 312
      There will be no links to PS articles in this post I promise you.

      Per card as you know it is about 1 in 5 to hit a flush draw. Simple, 9 cards help u and 39 don't. To deny him direct pot odds you only need to bet a bit more than 1/4 of the pot. Same will work for OESD.

      However, this isn't the entire truth. This does not take into account implied odds. Not so much for flushes but for straights if your opponent hits often it won't be apparent and you will pay out more money (as you should). If you bet more than 20% of your stack then he wont have the implied odds either.

      In a typical SNG it does not take much to destroy the pot odds and implied odds of draws. If the blinds are 15/30 and you have a 1500 stack then you raise to 90 or 120 and get one caller. The pot is already 300. Betting potsize on the flop and half potsize on the turn is enough to destroy the pot odds and implied odds as well.

      Also if you put your opponent on a draw and it misses, dont forget to check the river for value if you are out of position :D
    • Effanongen
      Effanongen
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      Joined: 09.02.2010 Posts: 45
      Originally posted by Hahaownedlolz
      NVM this thread. I was looking for a mathematical explanation. I know odds and outs. No offense but if your going to link me to some article don't bother.. i've read them i know the probability of hitting a flush/OESD. I just wanted to make sure i got it right, and how much EXACTLY it is profitable to call with a FD or OESD and how much you should atleast bet.

      If you read this, feel free to still ANSWER the questions i asked. If you don't want to bother giving a mathematical explanation and aren't going to answer my questions and just link me to some article then please don't bother.
      Honestly mate, there's alot of factors which decides what you have to do. If your opponent hits his draw 20% of the time in a 1000 chip pot, it would make sense to bet 200 + chips, as many as you can get in that he still calls. On the other hand, if you don't plan on folding when it does hit, you will be making a mistake by betting 200. If you fold the best hand when the flush hits you're making a mistake as well. 2/3 pot is usually a good amount to go for if you're not sure.

      + You can never be sure, he might have the set already..
    • lennonac
      lennonac
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      Joined: 02.05.2009 Posts: 1,421
      Originally posted by Hahaownedlolz
      NVM this thread. I was looking for a mathematical explanation. I know odds and outs. No offense but if your going to link me to some article don't bother.. i've read them i know the probability of hitting a flush/OESD. I just wanted to make sure i got it right, and how much EXACTLY it is profitable to call with a FD or OESD and how much you should atleast bet.

      If you read this, feel free to still ANSWER the questions i asked. If you don't want to bother giving a mathematical explanation and aren't going to answer my questions and just link me to some article then please don't bother.
      Come on its really not that hard.

      If you know how to work out odds then you know how much to bet to make it unprofitable, dont you?

      The problem is it is never that easy, nothing is in poker. Implied odds have a huge role in draws.
      Like say they have 25% chance of hitting so you bet 1/2 pot to give him incorrect odds. But if he feels he can get you stack when he hits then he will have good odds to call.


      Basicly what I am saying is your question has no answer :)
    • Hahaownedlolz
      Hahaownedlolz
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      Joined: 24.04.2009 Posts: 1,755
      Well thanks for answering everyone. Guess i will just keep betting big when someone is on a draw :]

      I should probably be more careful when i have draws myself, especially with a flush draw you probably won't get payed off since it's usualy pretty obvious. Ahwell, guess i will just keep grinding xD
    • Unam
      Unam
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      Originally posted by Hahaownedlolz
      NVM this thread. I was looking for a mathematical explanation. I know odds and outs. No offense but if your going to link me to some article don't bother.. i've read them i know the probability of hitting a flush/OESD. I just wanted to make sure i got it right, and how much EXACTLY it is profitable to call with a FD or OESD and how much you should atleast bet.

      If you read this, feel free to still ANSWER the questions i asked. If you don't want to bother giving a mathematical explanation and aren't going to answer my questions and just link me to some article then please don't bother.
      Hi,

      it is not, that I do not want to answer your question, I just don't understand it, the two links I gave you explain you first how to calculate odds mathematically (you asked for maths) the second one tells you why odds alone aren't everything, or what you have to think of as well.

      So again, if you explain me what you want to know (besides what is written in the articles), then I will try to help you.

      But these questions are answered in the articles.
      Originally posted by Hahaownedlolz
      How much % of the pot should you bet for an opponent's flush/OESD so it's -EV for them?

      And how much % of the pot do you bet when you know for sure you opponent has a flush/OESD on the flop or turn ?
      Manu
    • PocketAcesJohn
      PocketAcesJohn
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      Joined: 19.06.2008 Posts: 1,116
      To much focus is been put on pot odds here....Theres still a little somthing called implied odds, which imo is more imporatant =)
    • Unam
      Unam
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      Joined: 17.08.2006 Posts: 8,999
      Originally posted by PocketAcesJohn
      To much focus is been put on pot odds here....Theres still a little somthing called implied odds, which imo is more imporatant =)
      I would not say more or less important, but that is why I posted the article as well.