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[NL20-NL50] NL 50 float induce

    • elena90
      elena90
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.12.2008 Posts: 23
      Everest Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 4 players - View hand 662082
      The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

      BB: $51.00
      Hero (CO): $50.75
      BTN: $81.90
      SB: $51.00

      Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with 6:spade: 6:club:
      Hero raises to $1.75, 2 folds, BB calls $1.25

      Flop: ($3.75) 3:spade: Q:heart: Q:club: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $2.50, BB calls $2.50

      Turn: ($8.75) 7:heart: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero checks

      River: ($8.75) T:spade: (2 players)
      BB bets $4.50, Hero calls $4.50


      Villain
      Hands 126, vpip 17, pfr 14, wtsd 20, AF 2,4, 3bet 6, fold BB to steal 72 fold to cbet 33 3/9, checkrai F 0%
      I think villain is pretty basic TAG. Although the sample size is small I think his weakness is too loose
      and passive play from the blinds. I have also noted that he's able to float, though I haven't seen him do this OOP,
      but I'm pretty sure he's capable of doing so.

      When he calls from the BB I give him following range:22-99, A2s-ATs, 54s-QJs, 97s-KJs, Q9s-KTs, JTo-KQo, QTo-KJo, KTo,
      A9o and ATo.
      My plan for the hand is to bet the flop check back the turn and call a normal sized bet on the river.
      Is this line good vs this player and the way the board developes? When the T hits on the river his value range is
      very narrow because I don't think he will bet 88 or 99 here. So his value range is Qx, and sets (and random Tx), which means
      33? combos. OTR I need 25%. In order to get this there must be only 11 float combos he would play like this? Is my math correct
      here or am I completely clueless? :D 11 combos I would get super easy if my assumptation of him floating easily these kind
      of flops is right.

      Any advice regarding my thought process, math and the chosen line is appreciated!
  • 2 replies
    • supeyrio
      supeyrio
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.11.2009 Posts: 3,106
      Is definitely btwn a call n a fold. But i would prefer to double barrel n check/fold the river. Since we hv a weak hand, we would like to protect and also we can get to a free showdown by checking behind if villian has a strong hand n wants to check raise us given we hv shwn much aggression on both streets alrdy. So by bettin turn, we get more info from villian, gt a chance to win the pot immediately n get a free showndown if vilian checks the river. If we get checked
      raised or villian leads out om river, we can chuck away our holdings as we only beat 3 on the board
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I would prefer betting 4$ on the turn and then folding to c/r.
      This way you protect your hand, he can c/c with worse pp-s and flushdraws and you can take your free showdown.
      I think you´re often beat on the river, but getting that odds you can likely call although I think he doesn´t bluff there very often