While it is nice to short stack on a table with a lot of dumb big stacks that can't adapt to your play, that just isn't possible anymore. Playing such a supertight starting hand range just isn't possible anymore. I had fun with a graphing calculator figuring out what you should raise if your opponents play optimally against you. I made the following assumptions:

-You will raise x% of your hands to 3bb

-Each opponent reraises 0.5x% when you raise

-If you get reraised then you go broke with 0.5x% or exactly half of what you raised with. This will result in every all in you play being neutral EV since both handranges are exactly the same.

Using these assumptions I came up with the following formula to calculate the exact % of the time I should be raising from each position. Here it is. Skip a bit if you are not a math nerd like me.

y = x(1.5(1 - 0.5x)^p - 3/2(1 - (1 - 0.5x)^p))

This formula will calculate your average profit per hand where x is the amount of the time that you raise and p is the number of players left to act after you. To explain this dog's breakfast formula:

(1 - 0.5x)^p represents how often every player will fold to you and you take down the blinds. This is multiplied by 1.5 which is the amount that you win by taking down the blinds.

1 - (1 - 0.5x)^p thus represents how often you will be reraised. In this scenario you will either go broke (which is breakeven) or you will fold (and lose 3bb). Half the time you go broke and break even which is why it is 3/2.

1.5(1 - 0.5x)^p - 3/2(1 - (1 - 0.5x)^p therefore represents the EV calculation per hand assuming you raise x%. However this formula does not take into account how often you fold. You could just play AA KK QQ and the average profit per hand based on this formula would be huge but the total number of hands you play would be nothing. All this must be multiplied again by x to come up with the final formula.

And here are the approximate numbers for each position to raise assuming a 9 handed table.

utg1: 7.7%

utg2: 8.7%

mp1:10.1%

mp2:11.9%

mp3:14.9%

co :19.3%

bu :27.9%

This formula probably does not make sense for sb. In the sb you play out of position with a wide range that contains many hard-to-play hands. I would recommend just playing push-or-fold to save the headache since you don't lose much by doing it. It is maximum profit to shove about 45% of hands. If you don't play push-or-fold then you actually have to play less than 45% of hands since you will be out of position. I will be shoving or folding every hand I play from the sb unless there is opportunity to exploit the player in the BB.

These are just numbers though. The harder part is WHICH hands do I raise? Which hand is better 77 or AT suited. How do I even go about deciding which hands to play?

Help keep the SSS alive; if for nothing more than to learn something new about poker.

-You will raise x% of your hands to 3bb

-Each opponent reraises 0.5x% when you raise

-If you get reraised then you go broke with 0.5x% or exactly half of what you raised with. This will result in every all in you play being neutral EV since both handranges are exactly the same.

Using these assumptions I came up with the following formula to calculate the exact % of the time I should be raising from each position. Here it is. Skip a bit if you are not a math nerd like me.

y = x(1.5(1 - 0.5x)^p - 3/2(1 - (1 - 0.5x)^p))

This formula will calculate your average profit per hand where x is the amount of the time that you raise and p is the number of players left to act after you. To explain this dog's breakfast formula:

(1 - 0.5x)^p represents how often every player will fold to you and you take down the blinds. This is multiplied by 1.5 which is the amount that you win by taking down the blinds.

1 - (1 - 0.5x)^p thus represents how often you will be reraised. In this scenario you will either go broke (which is breakeven) or you will fold (and lose 3bb). Half the time you go broke and break even which is why it is 3/2.

1.5(1 - 0.5x)^p - 3/2(1 - (1 - 0.5x)^p therefore represents the EV calculation per hand assuming you raise x%. However this formula does not take into account how often you fold. You could just play AA KK QQ and the average profit per hand based on this formula would be huge but the total number of hands you play would be nothing. All this must be multiplied again by x to come up with the final formula.

And here are the approximate numbers for each position to raise assuming a 9 handed table.

utg1: 7.7%

utg2: 8.7%

mp1:10.1%

mp2:11.9%

mp3:14.9%

co :19.3%

bu :27.9%

This formula probably does not make sense for sb. In the sb you play out of position with a wide range that contains many hard-to-play hands. I would recommend just playing push-or-fold to save the headache since you don't lose much by doing it. It is maximum profit to shove about 45% of hands. If you don't play push-or-fold then you actually have to play less than 45% of hands since you will be out of position. I will be shoving or folding every hand I play from the sb unless there is opportunity to exploit the player in the BB.

These are just numbers though. The harder part is WHICH hands do I raise? Which hand is better 77 or AT suited. How do I even go about deciding which hands to play?

Help keep the SSS alive; if for nothing more than to learn something new about poker.