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[NL20-NL50] NL25 SH - KK with straight

    • tcs35
      Joined: 31.01.2009 Posts: 3,583
      Villain is defiantly a stations and I haven't really played an big pots against him. I am so confused because stations are only raising with the nuts and I obviously have the 2nd nuts.

      $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
      6 Players

      UTG ($34.77)
      Hero ($44.20)
      CO ($24.90)
      BTN ($31.61)
      SB ($25.10)
      BB ($25.40)

      Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 6 players) Hero is UTG+1 K:diamond: K:heart:
      1 fold, Hero raises to $1, 3 folds, BB calls $0.75

      Flop: 10:club: A:diamond: Q:heart: ($2.10, 2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $1.25, BB calls $1.25

      Turn: J:heart: ($4.60, 2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $3.25, BB calls $3.25

      River: 4:heart: ($11.10, 2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $7.25, BB goes all-in $19.90, $12.65 to Hero ($31.45)?
  • 2 replies
    • supeyrio
      Joined: 11.11.2009 Posts: 3,106
      its hard to give him credit but i think i would give it to him. from the way he plays, i strongly expect him to flip over Ax(most probably low kicker).
      he may also turn over a Kxs hands that gives him the straights.
      in any event, i think he is incapable of check raising air or in this scenario anything less than a 2pair, although i doubt sets or 2 pair is in his call open range in BB, and call flop call turn check raise river on such a board further supports the exclusion.
      he may check raise the "2nd nuts" or straights for value.

      so in conclusion, he's most probably going to flip over a straights or a flush.

      your KhKd against a range Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah7h, Ah6h, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah3h, Ah2h, K9s-K2s has 34.783% on such a board.

      if you call best outcome: tie; worse outcome: lose.
      hence you would need equity of arnd 50% for it to be a +ve EV.
      hence i think its a clear fold.

      please advice if you think my advice is wrong! thanks
    • caltabiano
      Joined: 09.03.2007 Posts: 1,992

      This is definitely a fold imo. It seems ridiculous, cause you're getting 3:1. But you're pretty much always beat, or going for a split. More often beat than a split of course :D

      If we indeed had as much equity as supey said, it would be an wasy call. But I really doubt his playing Kx like that. Most like he raises the turn.

      Is he so much of a station that you can extract that much money on the river from 2 pair? I'd usually bet a lot smaller, like $3 - $4 maximum. But some players will call anything with 2P :f_cool: