[NL20-NL50] NL50 FR AK river call/fold

    • Gabinr1
      Gabinr1
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.04.2009 Posts: 7,755
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.25/$0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)

      Known players:
      BU:
      $20.95
      SB:
      $87.80
      BB:
      $38.75
      UTG1:
      $112.95
      UTG2 (Hero):
      $52.85
      MP1:
      $116.55
      MP2:
      $42.70
      MP3:
      $60.80
      CO:
      $51.90


      Preflop: Hero is UTG2 with A, K.
      UTG1 folds, Hero raises to $2.00, 2 folds, MP3 calls $2.00, 4 folds.

      Flop: ($4.75) A, 8, 9 (2 players)
      Hero bets $3.50, MP3 calls $3.50.

      Turn: ($11.75) 5 (2 players)
      Hero bets $9.00, MP3 calls $9.00.

      River: ($29.75) 6 (2 players)
      Hero bets $13.00, MP3 raises to $46.30(All-In)



      Call or fold river? Why?
  • 3 replies
    • dandycal
      dandycal
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      I expect you to be beat many times, but I'd probably feel priced in to call his push on the river. I don't really see him having a straight there, but I guess 88-99 are definitely possible, and maybe 89.

      Is it too unlikely that he is raising with a busted FD/OESD here?
    • caltabiano
      caltabiano
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.03.2007 Posts: 1,992
      Originally posted by dandycal
      I expect you to be beat many times, but I'd probably feel priced in to call his push on the river. I don't really see him having a straight there, but I guess 88-99 are definitely possible, and maybe 89.

      Is it too unlikely that he is raising with a busted FD/OESD here?
      How about 77, T7, 76, 97, 87, maybe even 75. Sure, maybe he folds 77 on the flop, but there's still a bunch of combos. Of course this depends on the player also. Some players won't call offsuited connectors pre-flop and so the number of combos they can have diminishes greatly.

      I don't like giving people credit for bluff raising the river here, until the prove to me that they're capable of that. Most players aren't.

      I'm actually not even betting this river. I think he calls or raise us with too many hands that beat us and doesn't call enough with hands that we beat. I'd just check and consider c/c, since JT and the FD busted. But even that might be too thin of a call, because many busted FD improved into 2P or straight.

      So I'd rather c/f.

      Cheers
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I think c/c is fine on the river, since he can often bet himself with busted draws or worse Ax hands
      b/f is oki, although that is great board to bluff, since you likely kave there Ax and would never b/c river