Online poker, vs Live poker.

    • Styr
      Joined: 11.03.2009 Posts: 408
      When I say I do not like whining, I mean it. I also am aware of variance, and understand it. But the rest is a gigant black hole. A black hole so huge, that words can not be used to describe it.

      Maybe people who remember my previous posts remember me, that I have had downsprings, recovered from them, and made a comparatively profitable run, though I am still in a minus. (Mostly due to the years I was utterly at a loss as to what to do preflop, postflop, and of bankroll management.)

      Now to the point. On three occasions I have made an initial bankroll of $40 or $50 to around $700-900 within a week. And I was not even playing more than 3-4 hours per day on average. Not counting around $2000 I cashed out in months before. (Though that covered only a part of my losses).

      I lost around $60 in my last week of play, which I did not like, but found to be relatively normal. As to the nature of my work, I did not play for 2 weeks, until this Monday. It started in a relatively stable way, with even a $50 profit, but overall it was relatively stable, until three or four days ago, when it went beyond all reason. It is simply impossible to win any tournament anymore. Surely, I do win coinflips, bust out people who make bad plays with their aces, or other hands they believe to be the nuts. But what is it of use to me, when I myself bust out before making it into the money. Most of the time it involves flushing away my chips to some runner runner, on some occasions running into AA when holding KK. I get into a betting war holding top trips, only to find a straight draw, that hits, people from mental hospitals (I did not even know they had Internet access there.) calling with K3 against my QQ, the variations are endless.

      Now, that was online poker, or the last week of it, resulting in around -$400.

      I have on occasion been playing also live poker tournaments in my local casino, and have gotten into the money on most of them. Last tournament involved me splitting 1st and 2nd place out of 80, with a price money of about $500. And I was in profit from live tournaments even before that. Even there, the lost tournaments have been mostly due to being outdrawn.

      But even with a huge variance, I can not understand the happenings in online poker. It seems one would be better off playing roulette or blackjack. At least there you won't have to spend several hours just to lose. One spin(or shuffle), and you are done with it. Even better, if you can cheat in them. :P Not unlike poker, where you play for hours, and get kicked out either by an cretin, or simply get outplayed. The first should be on my advantage, the second I should be able to improve on. But at the end of the day, it is just screwed up. And this has been for the case for last three playing weeks, the only difference being, that before the middle of this week, I was able to correct it with winnings from other tournaments, but now for the last 3-4 days I haven't made it into the money, not even once.

      All the hands I win, are of really no importance, as the next second I lose two or three times with the best hand, and some cretin ends up being a bank for other players, hopefully giving it all away on, or close to the bubble.

      How can it be such a huge difference in playing online, and live?
  • 4 replies
    • Effanongen
      Joined: 09.02.2010 Posts: 45
      When I decide to play I can get raked up to 400$ a day on NL25, go figure :P
    • Meemawuk
      Joined: 27.05.2009 Posts: 758
      I play a lot of live poker and I honestly believe that people play more aggressive and are more inclined to bluff LIVE than online, so very often your TPTK is good. This idea is contrary to what you seem to be saying.

      I play a lot of MTT live and am yet to cash in 1. I get all in with overpairs vs draws and sets vs draws and even AK suited vs AQ offsuit and lose so frequently that I am not sure that mathematics even apply. The difficulty is that you can play great and it only takes 1 guy to suck out on you to eliminate you from a tournament.

      I am fortunate that my local casinos offer cash games where I frequently leave with 3-5 and at times 10x my original buy-in.

      Moral: Play cash, not tournament (both online and live) as in turns a much bigger profit. There are many pro players on the live tournament circuit who are barely covering their costs looking for that big score.
    • tokyoaces
      Joined: 01.04.2009 Posts: 1,883
      The long run is really long. Get back to us when you've played thousands of tournaments at a minimum.

      The edges in poker are extremely small. If you can break-even in poker, if you can beat the rate, you are quite a skilled player. Making a profit, even a small one, is actually rare.

      The variance in poker is large and is extremely ugly. There are plenty of graphs on the net where you can see this visually. If people could comprehend this I doubt anyone would still be playing. (Similar to how people fail to comprehend that slots, blackjack, roulette, and craps are -EV because they occasionally walk away a "winner".)
    • mishkagg
      Joined: 29.07.2008 Posts: 1,354
      Originally posted by Styr
      How can it be such a huge difference in playing online, and live?

      Live you make like 20-30 hands/hour at a full table. Online I make 800 hands/hour multitabling. Thus the variance online increases greatly. Live you can get AA once in 2-3 days. Online I get 10-15 AA/day.

      And when you open 15 sng tables a lot of things can happen. In SNG you go to showdown very often and this even further expands variance cause you're rarely more than 65:35 favorite and the 35% can happen like 20 times in a row, no problem.
      Like even AK vs 67s is 58.5% vs 41.5% to win but then the money goes in and the cards are shown you must think like "I am so crushing him!" when in reality it's pretty even.