Horse Racing Strategy

    • danutz123
      danutz123
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.05.2006 Posts: 126
      It doesn't involve handicapping except to determine the horses extremely unlikely to finish in the money.

      The main theory behind it is that the betting public generally do a pretty good job of determining the chances any particular horse has to win. The problem with handicapping is that you have to overcome a 20% track take for wps bets just to break even -- all but impossible at my skill level.

      I use an exotic bet, the quinella. To win a quinella bet, each of two horses you pick has to come in first or second in either order. I dutch the bets, making separate bets in an amount for each combination with one key horse and each other horse, such that if the key horse comes in first or second with any other horse in the race (except the ones I've thrown out), I win the same amount, no matter which other horse, bomb or chalk, comes in.

      I wrote a spreadsheet with macros to extract the betting pool data from the net and determine the overall odds of all Dutched bets with any horse combined with all the other runners in the race at any given total bet amount. If the combined odds of the dutched bets is significantly higher than the win odds for the key horse with the 25% kibosh for exotic bets added back in at 1 minute before the race goes off, I will make the bets. The beautiful part of this strategy is that I'll get more back even if my horse places than I would on a win bet if he wins (assuming theres no significant extremely late money on the combination that ends up winning and placing).

      I haven't bet with this strategy yet, but I have found from playing with the data that very often there are opportunities where the combined Dutch bet quinella odds are quite a bit higher than the win odds for the key horse at post time. Risk of ruin can be determined by factoring in the odds of the key horse but it's still hard to judge with my level of statistics understanding. I have found in the races I have looked at to my happiness that there is a longshot bias in tvilling bets and the key horses with theoretically positive expectation are often the favourites (lowers variance and therefore risk of ruin). What do you think?
  • 14 replies
    • fun101rockets
      fun101rockets
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.06.2008 Posts: 1,162
      I think u should stick with poker.
    • IcMean
      IcMean
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.08.2009 Posts: 2,348
      5-7-1-6-9
    • alejandrosh
      alejandrosh
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.07.2008 Posts: 4,346
      bet the winner
    • aceonetheriver
      aceonetheriver
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.12.2008 Posts: 591
      6-8-2-7-10
    • NightFrostaSS
      NightFrostaSS
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2008 Posts: 5,255
      Originally posted by alejandrosh
      bet the winner
      Seems like a winning strategy to me
    • morris979
      morris979
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.01.2009 Posts: 98
      In which country are you applying this system?
    • PocketAcesJohn
      PocketAcesJohn
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.06.2008 Posts: 1,116
      Theres only 1 strategy and thats called:

      "The if you keep betting on horses you will lose money strategy"
    • danutz123
      danutz123
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.05.2006 Posts: 126
      Originally posted by PocketAcesJohn
      Theres only 1 strategy and thats called:

      "The if you keep betting on horses you will lose money strategy"
      Some good handicappers do win.

      Did you even read the OP? Did you notice that I bet in situations where I get paid off not just more if the horse wins or finishes second than I would for a win bet but where it pays more for 1st or 2nd than the win odds with the 20% track take added back in.
    • Hahaownedlolz
      Hahaownedlolz
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.04.2009 Posts: 1,755
      I highly suggest sticking to poker..


      Especially since i just watched High rollers: the stu ungar story.. They estimate he earned 30M through poker/gin rummy and gambled it away with betting on horses, and spending on drugs/prostitutes..


      I'd just stay far away from it.. It's still gambling, no matter how you do it.. You can't affect the outcome in any way.
    • ihufa
      ihufa
      Gold
      Joined: 18.03.2008 Posts: 3,323
      Dress up like a horse and bet on yourself winning, then try winning.
      The plan has two points where it gets (very) hard;
      Dressing up like an actual horse and winning against other horses.
    • Hahaownedlolz
      Hahaownedlolz
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.04.2009 Posts: 1,755
      Originally posted by ihufa
      Dress up like a horse and bet on yourself winning, then try winning.
      The plan has two points where it gets (very) hard;
      Dressing up like an actual horse and winning against other horses.


      LOL, this is hilarious if you haven't slept for 30 hours.. :D
    • cryoburn
      cryoburn
      Silver
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 322
      I never read much about it but there are quite a few good traders making loads of money on horse betting.

      I give the same advice as other posters, you should stick to poker.

      But that doens't mean you can't learn and study the system, the betting patterns and structure. Poker is gambling but you play the players. Betting on horses has a lot of more gambling involved since it relies very much on available information, privileged information, betting timings, odds and payout structures. Plus I would guess that as any type of betting it should be pretty addictive.

      You should be very well prepared before investing anything, be very objective and disciplined. Be aware of all the risks inherit to it. If you won't bother the work and losses involved don't mess around with it at all. :f_mad:

      Play poker instead.
    • opal99
      opal99
      Black
      Joined: 05.02.2008 Posts: 8,270
      Originally posted by Hahaownedlolz
      : the stu ungar story.. They estimate he earned 30M through poker/gin rummy and gambled it away with betting on horses, and spending on drugs/prostitutes..
      this is the way to go... dont waste money on horses^^
    • delete461
      delete461
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.07.2008 Posts: 1,036
      I have a friend who makes a good living betting on horse racing. He used to be a jockey himself, he goes to the tracks and watches the horses before the race and tries to pick what mood the horses are in before they race. He also knows a lot of the trainers very well and knows what track conditions suit who's horses better etc. His edge comes from knowing more about horses and racing than the betting public.
      Trying to get an edge by fiddling with the numbers and trying to outsmart the bookies as you are doing is silly imo, you should stick to poker.