[NL2-NL10] 99 Nl4

    • LSFC4ever
      LSFC4ever
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.06.2009 Posts: 95
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.02/$0.04 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)

      Known players:
      MP3:
      $5.24
      CO (Hero):
      $5.00
      BU:
      $4.29
      SB:
      $5.41
      BB:
      $2.82


      Preflop: Hero is CO with 9, 9.
      MP3 folds, Hero raises to $0.16, BU folds, SB calls $0.14, BB folds.

      Flop: ($0.36) 8, 5, T (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.24, SB calls $0.24.

      Turn: ($0.84) Q (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.56, SB calls $0.56.

      River: ($1.96) 2 (2 players)
      SB bets $1.08, Hero folds, SB gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $1.96.

      So, my question is-is he bluffing the river enough, so i can make the call?He is 22\15\3.0\30\95-VPIP\PFR\AF\WTS\Hands.On the flop he can easy have, fd, pair of 8s, and alot of straightdraws-J9,67,QJ,Q9, plus i have blockers for alot of these straight draws.The turn card is really bad, because all Q high straight draws now have a pair, J9 has also got there.So, is my turnbet correct and can i call this riverbet with the thought he is beting busted draw?I guess he won't has busted draw that much in this situation, after all its NL4 and this is easy fold, but on the higher limits it might give me some hard time. so it's always nice to ask :)
  • 2 replies
    • kymupa
      kymupa
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364
      22/15 makes me think that he is a thinking player.
      With the turn cbet you will fold 8x, and maybe 67. Overcards won't fold there (KJ has OESD, AJ has double gutshot). You can't make fold FD to fold. So if you want him to fold a real hand you will have to barrel third time which is not good.

      When he donks on this blank river makes me think he has a hand - J9, Q8, QT or sth else that beat you very hard. I don't think he will bet with busted FD there and its hard for you to call with the two overcards.
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      Hi,

      Originally posted by kymupa
      22/15 makes me think that he is a thinking player.
      With the turn cbet you will fold 8x, and maybe 67. Overcards won't fold there (KJ has OESD, AJ has double gutshot). You can't make fold FD to fold. So if you want him to fold a real hand you will have to barrel third time which is not good.

      When he donks on this blank river makes me think he has a hand - J9, Q8, QT or sth else that beat you very hard. I don't think he will bet with busted FD there and its hard for you to call with the two overcards.
      Agreed on the whole thing.

      I wouldn't bet the turn either unless I was planning on turning my hand completely into a bluff and bombing a good amount of rivers.

      As played on the river 22/15 look like decent stats so far and your hand should look stronger to him than it actually is, so i very much doubt he's trying to make you fold anything by donking half pot. Not to mention it's not that easy for that type of player to show up with a busted draw, most of them would jump at the opportunity to check/raise such a flop with a whole lot of draws. I think he'll show you something like QJs or KTs/ATs making a "I don't want you to check back your marginal stuff, please pay up it's cheap" donkbet for value.

      If you want to think a little higher, it's actually really really hard for villain to actually have a nutted hand here. His range is somewhat capped by the fact that he didn't raise "for protection" at any point in the hand, which he would likely have done with all sets / two pairs / J9. So maybe, maybe sometimes he doesn't raise the turn with J9, but the rest of his range is mostly exactly hands like ATs/QJs that really cannot stand a river raise unless they put you on complete air. If I had bet stronger on both flop and turn, so that me having a huge hand was more credible, I would actually repop that river donkbet quite frequently.


      Hope it helps.