Game analysis - fundamental flaw and two extrems

    • Dippy19
      Dippy19
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.12.2007 Posts: 1,346
      The following stats and graphs are from NL10-NL25 SH.

      IMPORTANT FACT:

      So, I used to play NL100 and had a really interesting graph. My red line was steadily going up and my blue line was running around zero. I think we can derive from that that a lot of my non showdown winnings came on the expanse of my SD winnings. I think I was a lot less experienced then(important for a further conclusion).

      ANALYSIS:

      Now after a little break I started playing NL10-NL25. Since my main flaw was playing too aggressive, I decided to play more passive and tighter, which should also be more suitable for micro stakes. Now after a decent sample size here I am:





      From the graph it's obvious what I'm doing wrong. My red line is killing me. If I could get it to ~0 then I would actually have a relatively nice winning graph. So basically I leave too much dead money on the table. In conclusion, my passivisation has gone too far.

      Now I realized this 2 days ago, so I started working on getting my red line up. Since it's been only 2 days I don't have a real sample yet, but I'll continue anyway. This is what happened:





      Now my red line is going up, but my blue line has taken it's place. It is a fact that these 2 days I have been running below EV and got coolered a lot:



      But if you take into account that my missing EV comes on the expense of my SD winnings my blue line is around 0 again, so basically I'm moving between two extremes and I can't find that golden middle solution where my red line would be at 0 and my blue line would be moving up. Now totally objectively looking at these 2 days I have suffered a lot of coolers, so if I had a bigger sample I might have a positive blue line as well. Here the little note I made next to my NL100 experience comes into play, since I think I'm way more experienced now and understand many spots much better, am better at hand reading etc., is it possible that if I continue my current play, I can get both lines moving up?

      QUESTIONS:

      1.Is it possible to outplay your opponents so much that you get both red and blue line moving up?

      2.Can anyone see anything in my stats that I could improve to find that golden middle solution instead of jumping between 2 extremes?

      FINISH:

      For the next couple of days I will try to get a bigger sample for my new aggressive style and see how the lines react so that maybe I can come to a better conclusion.


      Thank you for any constructive feedback.
  • 13 replies
    • Fongie
      Fongie
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 4,978
      This is pretty interesting. What adjustments did you make exactly to go from a steady downwards to a steady upwards red line? If I were you and able to so obviously change from one style to another, I would definately use this to play 2 hour sessions and play 1 hour of each style, it should have equal advantage which one you start with for image purposes :P That should even out the total graph in the middle too :f_p:
    • qakaripodon
      qakaripodon
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.10.2009 Posts: 31
      I had the same problem and was experimenting a bit with my playing style to get the blue line up and my nonsd line into the breakeven state..

      here i will list some things that make me succeed in that matter.. :P





      :spade: Edit the settings of poker tracker to tell you the stats of the table (VPIP & PFR), into the right corner of the table, after you do this figure it out what is loose and what is tight...If the table is playing nitty like 15/5, open your OPEN-RAISING range.., if the table is loose go into the value open-raising range..so make a dynamic range not a static one.

      :spade: When you're in mp2+ look for these spots : 1.Opponents behind you are tight and blinds are folding their bbs a lot...and open hands that play well postflop..

      :spade:D on't steal opponents in the blinds that have a tendency to resteal more than normal...steal only with hands you want to go further with them

      :spade: Isolate (if there's ONE limper) and has a tendency to limp/fold(add this stat to your pop-up hud)

      :spade: 3-Bet oppponents that steal too much from BU and CO and have tendency to fold to a resteal(add this stat too to your pop up hud)

      :spade: C-Bet flops that you percieve that hasn't hit your opponent and flops that they won't call too much with draws...

      :spade: If flop goes check/check..and you decide to stab the pot(in a limped pot) in the turn..do it,and if you get called and a card that doesn't very much improve your opponents hand range hits..bet again

      :spade: Get hold em manager and if one player limped..and youre in the big blind for example and you have middle pair..or bottom pair..you should check and if he bets open his pop up stats and see what's his "Steal Limped Pot %" ..if its too high, then you can adapt and play accordingly thus resulting in better playability of your middle/bottom pairs , draws etc..


      ok..these are some steps that will improve your winrate and will help you in succeeding in your intention about the graph..it also will open your open raising range and people wont give you too much credit thus resulting in making your blue line go up...


      Also think about the metagame aspect, dont raise too much like you were a robot cuz opponents will notice this and play back at you with nonstella holdings...

      Good luck, have fun..

      p.s.: Get Hold 'Em Manager, its better,faster,stronger :D
    • justkyle88
      justkyle88
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 7,596
      If I were you and able to so obviously change from one style to another, I would definately use this to play 2 hour sessions and play 1 hour of each style, it should have equal advantage which one you start with for image purposes Zunge raus That should even out the total graph in the middle too


      This doesn't mean he is going to make a profit though. And if he is table selecting and moving table, he won't have an image imo.

      Are you taking your normal aggressive spots to win pot when your playing your passive style?

      Also,
      Spade Isolate (if there's ONE limper) and has a tendency to limp/fold(add this stat to your pop-up hud)

      What stat is this called? I can't find it in PT3.
      I think this is very useful to get dead money.
    • Dippy19
      Dippy19
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.12.2007 Posts: 1,346
      @ Fongie: :f_biggrin: Funny idea, but like Kyle said, it doesn't mean I'll make a profit. About my adaptions... I started looking for all the spots where I might get abused from the "good" players and playing back with lines I learned from hands on this forum.

      @ qakaripodon: Thanks, some useful info there. I already do most of the stuff you mentioned, but also some new things there.

      @ justkyle88: Table selecting on NL20, I don't think so ;) The point of this is to improve and if I can't outplay the regs on NL20 there isn't a point in playing.


      So I guess what I'll basically do now is implement the rest of what qakaripodon wrote and a modified version of what Fongie wrote. By modified version I mean I'll watch for the table dynamic and change between styles if my perceived table image changes or the general tendencies of the entire table change.
      The only thing I'm worried about is that this might be hard to do even with playing anymore than 2 tables :f_p:

      I'll try it out in the evening and see how it goes.
    • justkyle88
      justkyle88
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 7,596
      GL Dipp19.
      I'm playing NL25 if you want to sweat sometime.
    • gavinonymous
      gavinonymous
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,146
      check raise flop = 1/773.

      to me this indicates when you check the flop it means 99% you are giving up.

      check raising the flop more often might help your opponents guessing - and keep them from floating/donking you successfully.

      just a thought.
    • sk345di
      sk345di
      Global
      Joined: 07.05.2009 Posts: 225
      Originally posted by Dippy19

      @ justkyle88: Table selecting on NL20, I don't think so ;) The point of this is to improve and if I can't outplay the regs on NL20 there isn't a point in playing.

      Or take the money from the fish on nl20 and outplay the regs on nl50
      Or take the money from the fish on nl50 and outplay the regs on nl100
      .
      .
      .
      Or take the money from the fish and play against Phil Ivey

      Just a thought
    • Dippy19
      Dippy19
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.12.2007 Posts: 1,346
      Originally posted by justkyle88
      GL Dipp19.
      I'm playing NL25 if you want to sweat sometime.
      Add me on skype: dippy20

      Originally posted by gavinonymous
      check raise flop = 1/773.

      to me this indicates when you check the flop it means 99% you are giving up.

      check raising the flop more often might help your opponents guessing - and keep them from floating/donking you successfully.

      just a thought.
      Raiseing donk bets isn't accounted here, since it's not a c/r.

      I'll keep this in mind and try to find good spots for c/r on the flop, thanks.
    • justkyle88
      justkyle88
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 7,596
      added.
    • TribunCaesar
      TribunCaesar
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.04.2007 Posts: 13,264
      Originally posted by Dippy19


      QUESTIONS:

      1.Is it possible to outplay your opponents so much that you get both red and blue line moving up?

      2.Can anyone see anything in my stats that I could improve to find that golden middle solution instead of jumping between 2 extremes?

      Thank you for any constructive feedback.
      1.yes, but: you shouldn't try to on these stakes. It's not the max EV move vs bad opponents imo

      2.
      - 26 vpip is too high for these stakes ( pfr too high as well)
      - you defend too much out of the blinds
      - your wtsd is too high
      - you don't raise enough vs cbets

      I don't use PT3, so it's pretty hard for me to analyze those stats. Get HM asap ;)

      Tribun
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      Originally posted by TribunCaesar

      - you defend too much out of the blinds
      This jumped out at me, too. You are defending the big blind 38% of the time. That must include many unprofitable hands. Stop defending with those.

      I suggest that you look at your stats by position, and not worry so much about the unimportant distinction between showdown and non-showdown winnings.
    • nefarious26
      nefarious26
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 413
      Originally posted by pzhon
      Originally posted by TribunCaesar

      - you defend too much out of the blinds
      This jumped out at me, too. You are defending the big blind 38% of the time. That must include many unprofitable hands. Stop defending with those.

      I suggest that you look at your stats by position, and not worry so much about the unimportant distinction between showdown and non-showdown winnings.
      yes i would be pretty sure that your losing most of your non showdown money in the blinds defending to light, put the first graph up again with only the blinds and again without the blinds i bet its shocking
    • Chenghao
      Chenghao
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.10.2009 Posts: 274
      Initially you decided that

      "
      Now after a little break I started playing NL10-NL25. Since my main flaw was playing too aggressive, I decided to play more passive and tighter, which should also be more suitable for micro stakes. Now after a decent sample size here I am:"

      This explains why the redline graph was above for a while then went into break even then goes down.

      I think the problem is that you go in with the mindset of : I have my redline down so i want i to be up. So you tune your aggression to prevent your redline from dropping. Hence this leads you to put aggressive plan into a situation which demands passive plan , after all aggression is good " as you can win by having the best hand or FE ( when they fold)"


      SUN-TZU: THE PRINCIPLES OF WARFARE"THE ART OF WAR"
      Chapter Six: Weakness and Strength
      (by googling : sun tze art of war water"
      http://www.sonshi.com/sun6.html

      The army's formation is like water.

      The water's formation avoids the high and rushes to the low.

      So an army's formation avoids the strong and rushes to the weak.

      Water's formation adapts to the ground when flowing.

      So then an army's formation adapts to the enemy to achieve victory.

      Therefore, an army does not have constant force, or have constant formation.

      Those who are able to adapt and change in accord with the enemy and achieve victory are called divine

      - adapted for poker : adapt to your opponent instead of having a fixed plan !