[NL2-NL10] NL10 QJo TP3K

    • Duudalinja
      Joined: 21.12.2009 Posts: 1,030
      $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
      5 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      UTG ($10.20)
      UTG+1 ($8.72)
      CO ($18.11)
      BTN ($5.38)
      Hero ($10.73)

      Pre-Flop: ($0.10, 5 players) Hero is BB Q:club: J:diamond:
      2 folds, CO raises to $0.30, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.20

      Flop: Q:diamond: 3:club: 4:club: ($0.60, 2 players)
      Hero checks, CO checks

      Turn: 10:diamond: ($0.60, 2 players)
      Hero bets $0.40, CO raises to $1, Hero calls $0.60

      River: 9:heart: ($2.60, 2 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $2.10, Hero calls $2.10

      Opp: 19/13/55/22 (vpip, pfr, cbet flop%, steal%) over 481 hands (at this hand sample size was way smaller)

      Preflop: First question here, what's the best move? 3bet/fold?

      What to do with his cbet if he does one? Raise/fold or call? Bet turn or check it again?

      If played like this, is it worth calling the river down? I had too many toughts, not worth writing `em all. :)
  • 2 replies
    • ExMagnusxL
      Joined: 03.04.2010 Posts: 59
      So preflop with his PFR% we can give him a range like (66+, A9s+, KTs+, QJs+, ATo+, KJo+) This gives an equity of 33% for you from the Equilator, however he may be raising looser than this since he is in position, therefore I would caution to fold here, but a call isn't terrible.

      On the flop, checking is the best option because if he hit that queen he is likely to have you dominated. His c-bet percentage indicates he is fairly passive when his hands don't hit so when he checks behind you it indicates weakness. This narrows his range down to something like (AJs-A9s, KJs-KTs, AJo-ATo, KJo). I eliminated all pocket pairs and two overcard hands as well as any hands that paired the queen because he would have c-bet those. As well we can likely eliminate the :club: FD. Here your equity is 67%.

      On the turn that T:diamond: is good for you because some of his range pairs (ATs, ATo, KTs = 18 combos)* with you holding the overpair; however it is also bad for you because it gives him the backdoor straight draw for (AJs, AJo, KJs, KJo = 30 combos)* and doesnt help (A9s = 2 combos + 1 combos with the :diamond: FD)*. So basically he will only fold A9s:spade: /:heart: , raising with his second pair or his draws for info and value if you are trying to float. Most of the time (59%) he will be on a SD, half of which are OE. So I think a 3-bet is required ~$4.00 would be best because if he has a pair (35% of the time he will) it is for value because your's is better and he will likely call because you have little FE. It also makes it very difficult to chase that straight OE or otherwise plus that one FD. This 3-bet gives pot odds of ~2:1 where his odds of catching at worst are 6:1. If he 4-bets you, which doesn't seem likely, he proly slow played you and bailing is the best option, though if it seems weak to you because of your history with him then shoving is okay to.

      As played, folding is the best option when that nine comes on the river because too much of his range catches the straight there. If played the way I have described trying to get the most value out of him is definitely the way to go because usually, if is he smart and rational, he will have folded that straight, if you are still scared though then c/c is still a viable option.



      *(got rid of the suited :club: combos)
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510

      While I think ExMagnusxL's analysis has merit, I disagree on some key points which results in totally different lines.

      First I don't believe you can discount all pairs on the flop at all, you'll tight players check back stuff as strong as Q9 there ("I don't beat many top pairs I'm gonna take a bluff-catching line") and for sure any pocket pair lower than Qx ("Oh my god there is an overcard on board"). I agree it's possible he checks back A-high, but I still think he'd just c-bet most air hands and most draws. Maybe sometimes he gets a bit tricky if he hit huge too.

      Given that his turn raise is kind of nonsensical and this a a common situation, where you'll basically see either slowplayed stuff, combo redraws, sometimes a random spazz with a weird hand and exactly TT. Since he's overall tight I wouldn't put too much random spazzes in his range, and I don't want to go broke with QJ against a range of slowplayed stuff / combo redraws and TT. I'd much rather see a river, check/fold if it completes draws and either check/fold or check/call a blank depending on just how likely I think he is to raise a combo draw on the turn AND follow up with a river bet on a blank.

      Hope it helps.