Statistics actually works!

    • bakoy
      bakoy
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.01.2008 Posts: 91
      So, here's the story. Got the second starting capital at 888, playing like once a month, won a few of the 40man sit n gos and cashed in a couple of MTTS to bring my bankroll to around $150

      To take part in the recent 20k pokerstrategy freeroll, I decided to make a $60 deposit to get some bonus action, and also to be able to withdraw after I release my bonus, to leave all my BR at Full Tilt.

      So I decide to play a kind of LAG style at NL 6, 10, and 20 (to get a lot of action and clear the bonus quickly).

      However, this didn't really work out and I lost nearly half my bankroll in a couple of days (running substantially below EV), so I decided to move to S&G's which is where I excel. After running incredibly unlucky I had nearly decimated my bankroll and was left with nearly $60 in my account, down from $250 I had just after I made the deposit, with only $15 equivalent in bonus earnings (out of a max of $45)

      Not wanting to lose my investment and also not wanting to wait years to rebuild my BR playing $1 S&G's, I decided to move back to the cash games, but this time only at NL 2, and playing very abc TAG poker.

      You can see the results of this in my cash game graph around hand 5k. Not only am I playing better (all in EV is trending upwards) but I am also running quite hot, and closing in on the gap between actual and expected profit.

      Just goes to show that yes, variance does actually follow the rules of statistics and eventually your all-in EV will move back up! :)




      PS: Right at the bottom I am $70 below EV :(
  • 10 replies
    • Hahaownedlolz
      Hahaownedlolz
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.04.2009 Posts: 1,755
      NO WAI! so you mean EV and your winnings are supposed to be equal in the long run? Who would have thought that..
    • mishkagg
      mishkagg
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.07.2008 Posts: 1,354
      Don't worry about lines. I've had 25k hands stretches where the lines are like 5-6 BI between each other. As far as I know you need over 100k hands for them to be very very close.
    • taavi1337
      taavi1337
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.05.2009 Posts: 2,920
      NOBODY is unlucky or lucky in poker.
    • gudalemandele
      gudalemandele
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2008 Posts: 171
      NOBODY is unlucky or lucky in poker.

      Of course people are lucky and unlucky??
    • cryoburn
      cryoburn
      Silver
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 322
      Yes of course there are lucky and unlucky in poker!

      But I try to keep thinking it will even out in the long run. But I can't avoid being pessimisting about my "luck" because i've played 183k hands on NL4 and I'm 48 BI under EV. That's like -240$ under EV that I "unluckly" am missing. When will it even out? Maybe I need to put in more 100k hands?

      Therefore I'm more inclined to believe that as in poker as in life some people are luckier than others. Not because of fate, karma or whatever but for random circumstances, true chance.

      Although I believe as well that skill overcomes luck in poker in the long run.
    • m4rr3co
      m4rr3co
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2009 Posts: 35
      there's just no reason to talk about luckness in the world of poker...if you want to play having it in mind, raise it to 25bb with 72o at UTG +1 and go for it ¬¬". We, TAGS, don't play with luck, we play with strategy and right cards...if we, somehow, lose following the right strategy, that's just as normal as being hit by a bird's shit while you walking to your job!
    • redskwerl
      redskwerl
      Black
      Joined: 03.03.2008 Posts: 3,802
      i mostly rely on luck
      seems to be working thus far
    • m4rr3co
      m4rr3co
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2009 Posts: 35
      Originally posted by redskwerl
      i mostly rely on luck
      seems to be working thus far
      i can feel your sarcasm dude! >.<
    • Atoks
      Atoks
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.06.2008 Posts: 1,354
      Originally posted by redskwerl
      i mostly rely on luck
      seems to be working thus far
      +1
      I'd never have won as much money if I didn't have luck.
    • bakoy
      bakoy
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.01.2008 Posts: 91
      You will also notice that I have considerably less variance and better EV when I change my style to ABC TAG poker... just goes to show!