[NL2-NL10] Overpair VS Set

    • drbloody
      drbloody
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.04.2010 Posts: 83
      Hi there guys, how ya all doin :f_eek: ?

      First to introduce myself, my name's Jan, I'm 21 and I come from Bosnia. I've played online for the past 3 years on PacificPoker, occasionally and mostly MTTs. My greatest success was 4th place on 5Kgntd, and there I went bad beat with pocket AA to two guys with KJ who flopped 9TQ...we were ~equal in chips. That's where I got totally pissed of at poker, until now, until here you made me realize what a fish I was, lol I actually thought I knew something about poker.
      I gathered my senses and went back to the very basics, determined to climb the stairs of poker one by one! I'm on BSS NL2, studying articles and playin that limit. This is one of my first posts on the forums, and a first post for hand evaluation. I'm new to pokerstrategy, and so happy to be here.
      You guys are totally amazing, you made me realize what a fishdonk I was my past 3years of online poker! You've changed my perception of poker to a whole new dimension...simply said it's your fault I am choosing this game for my life career :s_love: .
      Please disregard my silver status, I made it while wasting my starting capital :( on limits too high...didn't read and study.
      Went back to basics with articles, read and wrote lots, got prepped, and now I am playing NL2 and grinding up my bankroll, yep, I started with 5$, now @ 16.

      Here I come up with something that totally bugs me, guess its a standard situation in this limit. Any advice here, how to avoid loosing with overpair to trips?

      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.01/$0.02 No-Limit Hold'em (7 handed)

      Known players:
      MP2:
      $1.95
      MP3:
      $3.46
      CO:
      $3.79
      BU (Hero):
      $5.27
      SB:
      $2.01
      BB:
      $2.00
      MP1:
      $2.20


      Preflop: Hero is BU with K, K.
      3 folds, CO raises to $0.08, Hero raises to $0.24, 2 folds, CO calls $0.16.

      Flop: ($0.51) 6, 3, J (2 players)
      CO checks, Hero bets $0.36, CO raises to $0.78, Hero calls $0.42.

      Turn: ($2.07) 8 (2 players)
      CO bets $1.97, Hero calls $1.97.

      River: ($6.01) J (2 players)
      CO raises to $0.80, Hero calls $0.80.

      Final Pot: $7.61.
      Results follow:

      Hero shows two pairs, kings and jacks(K K).
      CO shows a full-house, threes full of jacks(3 3).

      CO wins with a full-house, threes full of jacks(3 3).



      LOVE YA

      dRb
  • 4 replies
    • drbloody
      drbloody
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.04.2010 Posts: 83
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.01/$0.02 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)

      Known players:
      BU:
      $2.00
      SB:
      $1.93
      BB:
      $2.65
      UTG2:
      $1.97
      MP1:
      $1.10
      MP2:
      $2.01
      MP3 (Hero):
      $2.00
      CO:
      $3.93


      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q, Q.
      UTG2 calls $0.02, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.08, CO calls $0.08, BU calls $0.08, 3 folds.

      Flop: ($0.29) 9, 4, J (3 players)
      Hero bets $0.21, CO folds, BU calls $0.21.

      Turn: ($0.71) 7 (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.34, BU raises to $0.92, Hero calls $0.58.

      River: ($2.55) 2 (2 players)
      Hero checks, BU raises to $0.79, Hero calls $0.79.

      Final Pot: $4.13.
      Results follow:

      BU shows three of a kind, fours(4 4).
      Hero shows a pair of queens(Q Q).

      BU wins with three of a kind, fours(4 4).

      :f_love:

      Cheers
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      Hi,


      Congratulations on realizing all that and starting over, takes a lot of heart. Hope it works out for you.


      KK hand

      Not easy to get away from this one without reads. We're deep with him but that doesn't tell much about the player, everybody perceives stack depth differently. Tags usually don't screw around too much especially when deep, while fish usually don't care much about it. If anything the fact that he chose to open raise to 4x instead of like 3x or pot hints at him following standard tags guidelines but maybe he raised that amount for other reasons.

      So on the flop he might be really strong or he might be screwing with us who knows. For sure we're not folding. Whether we call or 3-bet depends on reads with don't have, namely whether he's capable of being on a pure bluff on such a dry board (in which case calling to let him continue bluffing is the preferred line) and whether he's capable of raising for value with a worse hand like Jx or as a semi-bluff with draws (in which case we'd rather just 3-bet and get it in right there).

      The more taggish he looks the less he'll do all of that, the more worried we should be. If he looks fishy but not too aggro just 3-bet and get it in when in doubt to stack Jx hands, if he's fishy like batshit aggressive just call and shove over his bet on any turn. By default I'd probably just call since I think he's a bit more likely to be a tag than a fish so far.

      As played when he pot donks the turn frankly I wouldn't mind folding if I was a bit more sure of him being a reg, you won't see them do that with semibluffs nor pure bluffs almost ever. When in doubt I guess shoving over his turn bet is fine as well, in case we're ahead we want all the money in, it's not like he's not going to put us all-in on the river with his better hands anyway.


      As for the QQ hand

      I'd raise it up to 5bb preflop over the limper to begin with. C-betting the flop is mandatory obviously, lots of worse hands that can call.

      On the turn I'd bet bigger again, a lot of his range will still be stuff like Jx/spades/QT/T8 that you're giving too good odds to by only betting half pot. Prefer firing something healthy like $0.55-$0.60 instead.

      When he raises the turn as played you start needing some idea of how villain is playing, specifically whether he's capable of raising stuff that QQ beats on the turn.

      Looking rapidly at what he's done so far, he has exactly 100bb which usually suggests him likely to be some reg with autorebuy, he overcalled preflop which from those players usually means some kind of speculative suited connectors / pocket pair type of hands. The flop call doesn't tell us much except that a good amount of regs would just raise two pairs and sets at that point so they're somewhat less likely. By raising the turn he announces he has at least two pairs+ since very few regs will actually raise a draw at that point when they didn't on the flop. The sizing on the turn raise looks fine (he didn't minraise it or anything), reinforcing our idea that he probably somewhat knows what he's doing.

      Overall I'd say it's a textbook example of a spot where you need to get used to the idea of folding an overpair barring some read that he's dumb/aggressive enough to raise there with worse hands. The only caveat in that is that you bet so small you might sometimes induce people to raise your bet for the hell of it, but I doubt it happens too often from such a player. If you don't want to fold, just jam. Whatever worse hands he might be doing that with you don't want to let him have like 1/4 pot left in his stack (he might fold the river if he misses a draw or check back Jx or whatever).


      Hope it helps.
    • drbloody
      drbloody
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.04.2010 Posts: 83
      Merci pour votre evaluation soigneux tamairlarace,

      ca m'aide bien sur.

      ...though I need to learn much more to benefit from it fully.Ouch I didn't even see my raise mistakes on those hands, oups, 5bb over 1limper ofc.
      As I recall both of the players were quite taggish, hey I forgot to mention I do use PT3 (trial version for now).
      Just wasn't sure which values to post, and which values are of most use to you when evaluating.
      Also, I would greatly appreciate some advice on which values I could make most use of myself at this limit ? What to dump, what to add here.

      For the moment I use VPIP/PFR%/Afq(total)/BB Won/Call flop raise percen tage/and ofc hands played/

      Chaleureusement

      Jan :f_p:
    • MaestroOfZerg
      MaestroOfZerg
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510
      Hi,


      I wouldn't bother with many stats at nl2, the player pool is so wide and so filled with recreational player that it's somewhat rare to get a big enough sample on people for postflop stats to be accurate, except for some regulars maybe, and against them you pretty much just need to know that they usually don't get excited without a strong hand. I'd go with something like

      - vpip/pfr/AF(q)/hands
      - c-bet flop / fold to flop c-bet
      - maybe add something like fold to turn (c)bet% too, to spot people who peel every flop but almost always fold on the turn (it's quite common actually)

      C-bet stats can give you a good idea of how loose people are postflop pretty fast (turn and especially river stats are much slower to converge since hands don't always get to that point), which is important. That way you know who is playing fit-or-fold postflop (c-bet everything against them) and who doesn't need to hit the board to call a flop bet (don't c-bet if you don't have some equity to back it up). If you start seeing something like 20% fold to flop c-bet and 85% fold to turn bet, it's time to bomb every turn against that villain.


      Hope it helps.