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[NL2-NL10] NL10 AKo missed flop

    • Duudalinja
      Joined: 21.12.2009 Posts: 1,030
      $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
      5 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by

      UTG ($37.48)
      CO ($6.56)
      BTN ($4.27)
      Hero ($10.13)
      BB ($9.85)

      Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 5 players) Hero is SB A:diamond: K:spade:
      2 folds, BTN calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.40, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.30

      Flop: 6:spade: Q:heart: 3:heart: ($0.90, 2 players)
      Hero bets $0.50, BTN calls $0.50

      Turn: 10:diamond: ($1.90, 2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $0.95, Hero folds

      Let's assume I have no stats, but how should I handle such a missed flops and bets? I see lot of money floating away in similar situations where I don't really control things going on.
      This situation is just one of many others, so any advices?
  • 2 replies
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510

      Read-less it's a pretty tough question, I'd say it's more important to realize that you can't play that optimally until you get better reads. Sometimes you'll barrel the turn and realize after a few hands that villain never folds the turn after calling the flop, mostly because he never calls without a strong piece. Sometimes you'll realize villain nearly always folds the turn after calling the flop, because he calls the flop c-bet with pretty much anything. When in doubt don't panic, just pick a play based on board texture and learn what you can from what happens, so that you're a bit better informed the next time around. You can't go wrong per se.

      Here we can't really check/call against a seemingly passive player unless he bets quite small, since those players usually aren't betting the turn to much when checked to, meaning they'll show you Qx+ a good amount if they end up betting. So we're mostly thinking about whether we want to barrel again or not. We picked up a gutshot to go with our overcards, so even tho all our "outs" might not be clean it's a pretty good argument for firing again. On the other hand it's nl10 and villain limp/called preflop so he's probably not in love with the fold button, he's never folding Qx or hearts most likely, he might dump stuff like 6x/3x and low gutshots or he might not. He might fold a lot of nothing hands that he called the flop with if he calls flop c-bets very wide.

      So it's not a clear cut decision and it's fine, it's to be expected without reads. Just pick any option and learn from it. I'd just bet that turn and see what happens the first time.

      - If you check and he bets, note that he did that. If he does it again next time and overall doesn't seem to be folding a lot to flop c-bets, adjust by not c-betting with hands you can fire twice with and just fire twice with anything that has decent equity, and/or start check/calling your marginally good hands on the turn to catch his turn bluffs.

      - If you check and he checks behind, chances are you'll see the showdown and if he bets the river, I'd say he's very likely to show busted hearts so I'd entertain calling with AK-high.

      - If you bet and he raises easy fold, not much you can learn from that.

      - If you bet and he folds, chances are he calls the flop somewhat light just to see a turn then folds, or he's willing to fold small pairs/weak draws on the turn, which should make you more likely to barrel turns against him.

      - If you bet and he calls you only learn he doesn't seem to be giving up on the turn after calling the flop, which might mean he's very cally or that he doesn't call the flop without a strong piece. Hard to say which without a showdown and those possibilities will require very different adjustments, so don't overdo it until you get better information. Again hopefully you see a showdown and if you don't no big deal.

      Whenever you see a showdown, process it fully. What did he call the flop with and possibly the turn with, did he bet the turn with it when checked to(or not), did he bet the river with whatever he had. Start constructing ranges and drawing conclusions.
      Say you bet flop bet turn check river and he checks it back with:

      - 43o, you learn he's very loose preflop so he'll show up on the flop with a ton of crap, he really doesn't like folding so you shouldn't barrel him without decent equity and you should valuebet every 2nd pair+ hands for at least two streets.

      - KQ, you can be suspicious when he bets that he's bluffing or really strong since he obviously sucks at valuebetting, which means you can usually bluff-catch a bit more with marginal hands and just plain get out of the way if you have nothing or there are no (busted)draws to bluff-catch against.

      - 9h7h, you can assume he's never folding draws until they miss and usually doesn't bluff with busted draws even in position when checked to, which means it's not a good idea for you to 2-barrel drawy boards unless you also bluff the river, it's a very good idea to valuebet those boards very thinly, and it's a bad idea so bluff-catch against him when draws miss.

      - ... and so on and so forth, it's just poker.

      Hope it helps.
    • Duudalinja
      Joined: 21.12.2009 Posts: 1,030
      Thanks for such a lesson! :respect: :)