Average downswing time?

    • Styr
      Styr
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.03.2009 Posts: 410
      For how long, on average, does a down-swing last? A month? A year? Ten years?

      I have profited for three consecutive 2 week sessions, basically increasing my starting bankroll each time by 10-20-fold. And all this with the occasional bad beats happening.

      But for the last 2 sessions, lasting over a month, it is a pure loss. Does not matter how I play, what my cards are. At the VERY best I make it even. Usually I would get a significant payout increase at several different tables, if someone gets kicked out, as I have a solid stack. Yet the small stacks double up, I lose several times to a 2-3 outer, and get nothing else, but my money back. That is, if I am lucky enough.

      Even if I win, it is usually a hand, that does not make any difference whatsoever. Like kicking out a small stack, while being in the chiplead. Yet when I am against a well stacked player, then more often than not, I lose, no matter what my cards are.

      I really do not like to limit the question to two choices, so I added a "month" as a choice, though seeing it with my own eyes, I am certain that a life in a d-swing prison is not out of the reach.
  • 14 replies
    • roswellx
      roswellx
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.12.2008 Posts: 599
      Downswings cannot have a fixed period of time as every hand played is independent from the previous one. Think of it this way you played 1000 hands and you were down 10BIs then you continued playing 100000 hands and you are up 35BIs. In this example if you zoom into the 1k hands part you'll become depressed that you were losing money constantly. If you zoom out and see a bigger picture you'll see that actually you're a winning player. Now it's possible that bad beats are stretched to 100k hands or maybe 1million or maybe lifetime. On the other hand, a player may never experience a downswing and winning constantly despite his poor play. This is called variance and part of the game and is a good thing for the good players and bad players. Good players will play a lot of hands and in the end their skill will beat the variance. Bad players will play a lot and keep sucking out and/or will hope to hit their miracle cards. What matter is how skilled and patient we are to beat the variance. I hope this clear some fogs in your head and start to not worry about downswings but accept the reality of bad play and take counter measures...
    • Styr
      Styr
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.03.2009 Posts: 410
      May not make any sense, I know, but it is endless.

      Example:

      1st place: $26
      2nd place: $6
      3rd place: $4
      4th place: Waste 1 hour of ones life; support mentally ill people.

      Hand 1

      PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 3.3 Tournament, 125/250 Blinds 25 Ante (4 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com



      Button (t7350)
      SB (t1085)
      Hero (BB) (t2055)
      UTG (t1510)

      Hero's M: 4.33



      Preflop: Hero is BB with 8, K
      2 folds, SB calls t125, Hero bets t2030 (All-In), SB calls t810 (All-In)

      Flop: (t2220) 3, 7, 2 (2 players, 2 all-in)

      Turn: (t2220) 7 (2 players, 2 all-in)

      River: (t2220) 7 (2 players, 2 all-in)

      Total pot: t2220

      Results:
      SB had 3, 8 (full house, sevens over threes).
      Hero had 8, K (three of a kind, sevens).
      Outcome: SB won t2220

      The following hand:

      PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 3.3 Tournament, 125/250 Blinds 25 Ante (4 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com



      UTG (t7325)
      Button (t2220)
      Hero (SB) (t970)
      BB (t1485)

      Hero's M: 2.04



      Preflop: Hero is SB with K, A
      1 fold, Button calls t250, Hero bets t945 (All-In), BB calls t695, 1 fold

      Flop: (t2240) 8, 6, 3 (2 players, 1 all-in)

      Turn: (t2240) 3 (2 players, 1 all-in)

      River: (t2240) 5 (2 players, 1 all-in)

      Total pot: t2240

      Results:
      Hero had K, A (one pair, threes).
      BB had J, 6 (two pair, sixes and threes).
      Outcome: BB won t2240


      Basically this is my daily schedule. Every day for the last 3 or 4 weeks.
    • Leito99
      Leito99
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.07.2009 Posts: 754
      there are no downswings in poker, just badly played hands

      someone here on PS has this signature and i agree

      and i played enough poker to get sucked out on 10 times in a row but hey its your turn next so whatever
    • Berzerger
      Berzerger
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.03.2008 Posts: 910
      Originally posted by Leito99
      there are no downswings in poker, just badly played hands
      Technically not true, but the idea remains the same. If you play a session under the impression that you're currently on a downswing, you'll play worse. Just keep reminding yourself that every hand is random, and you'll only achieve results by playing correctly.
    • gadget51
      gadget51
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.06.2008 Posts: 5,622
      To quote a well known coach; 'Decision correct, result irrelevant.' So just keep making correct decisions. That's about it really.
    • taavi1337
      taavi1337
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.05.2009 Posts: 2,920
      Originally posted by gadget51
      To quote a well known coach; 'Decision correct, result irrelevant.' So just keep making correct decisions. That's about it really.
      the Truth
    • Hahaownedlolz
      Hahaownedlolz
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.04.2009 Posts: 1,755
      It's over 9000


      Seconds if your lucky, hours if your not.
    • Meemawuk
      Meemawuk
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.05.2009 Posts: 758
      Originally posted by Leito99
      and i played enough poker to get sucked out on 10 times in a row but hey its your turn next so whatever
      I dont agree with this, and neither should many people who play on this site. Correct strategy means you're not getting your money in behind often enough to earn your fair share of suckouts.
    • PocketAcesJohn
      PocketAcesJohn
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.06.2008 Posts: 1,116
      Getting bad beats = Your playing well

      Giving bad beats = Your plaaying bad.


      Be happy you get bad beats =)
    • tcs35
      tcs35
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.01.2009 Posts: 3,583
      Length of downswings are not measurable and if they are lasting a long time it's probably that you have been playing bad. I have been running bad recently and I agree with my previous statement. Even though people are sucking out it cause me to lose other pots and lose more.

      Hope this helps
    • alberts1955
      alberts1955
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.04.2010 Posts: 251
      i usualy have no more than 1day downswings :)
      but the sadest part of it is, that i always run totaly hot before a 1day downswing starts
    • SirPaulius
      SirPaulius
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 603
      Originally posted by PocketAcesJohn
      Getting bad beats = Your playing well

      Giving bad beats = Your plaaying bad.


      Be happy you get bad beats =)
      nothing to add
    • 8979687
      8979687
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.11.2008 Posts: 2,225
      Originally posted by Meemawuk
      Originally posted by Leito99
      and i played enough poker to get sucked out on 10 times in a row but hey its your turn next so whatever
      I dont agree with this, and neither should many people who play on this site. Correct strategy means you're not getting your money in behind often enough to earn your fair share of suckouts.
      Depending on what variant you are talking about. Sometimes in SNGs you just have to
      be on the wrong end of the odds but its better than losing for sure the next hand when
      the blinds finish you off.

      Not just that, you can run into the top of peoples ranges for days at a time.
    • andreibalint
      andreibalint
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.04.2009 Posts: 872
      In theory a downswing can last forever, because the cards have no memory, they don't know that they were bad the last time.

      However, as the sample size increases it becomes asimptotically (whatever, how's it in english?) less probable it's because of the variance and more probable you're losing money.

      there are no downswings in poker, just badly played hands


      Sounds good on TV, but not quite real. A lot of "pros" like to play small ball poker and rarely go all in without the nuts, so it may be a little "more" true for them, but remember the stakes they are playing!