Has variance " memory"

    • Schris7
      Schris7
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      Joined: 15.01.2007 Posts: 730
      My topic will focus on two things.

      First is about the "memory" variance has . I am a sng player so i will speak about sngs but you can throw your experience about cash game as well.
      So after having a sample of some 5k sngs size i was wondering that for a while ..
      In theory u will say that of course every flip u make is 50% chance to win or loose but didnt u ever feel after winning or loosing a flip many times in a row that this time the odds are with u to win(or loose) even if u re on a 50% ?

      Didnt u ever feel that after having a really hot session(s) the next one will be a downswing cause its normal to have a downswing so u can balance the variance or the opposite(having a very bad session so the next will be a winning one)? Observing my results at least for me i can say that always (or almost always) after a very good or a very bad session(always speaking about the luch and not if i made bad moves) the next session is the opposite.
      I never had long win or loss streches (like 7 days+ in a row winning/loosing ).


      The second thing i want to mention is the psycology of the "variance memory effect"(damn that should have been my tittle !).
      As writen above u cant expect to be in favour of a coin flip just because u lost the previous last 10coin flips but in reality a part of me believe its time to win (or probably hope it ).
      How all these affect the psycology?For me if i have a very hot session the next one will be more hard to play cause thinking of the "variance memory effect" i mostly know a downswing will come ,but that works the same way around having a bad luck session i am more eager to play the next day.
      I have to mention that my playstyle doesnt chance or getting affected cause of that effect.

      Conclusion. Math is math so whatever i say 50% will remain 50% ,so i guess the problem is the psycology.
      Then whats your problem if your gameplay doesnt getting affected, u will ask?My problem is that i loose motivation when i win or gain when i loose.A "clever" guy will say then "loose more often"
      Anyway i was wondering if there are players with the same problem and what they do to fix that .I wish i could be a robot with no feelings(when i play poker) then i would be a much better player . :D


      p.s. sorry for the bad english i did my best :D
  • 21 replies
    • Fongie
      Fongie
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      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 4,978
      There is no justice in variance, it's all in your mind.
      I think the best way is just for you to play a lot. It sounds simple, but once youve played a lot of sessions you stop caring about it and know that the next session can be winning or losing no matter what happened the last one, just from experience.
    • SirEdwardKnight
      SirEdwardKnight
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      Joined: 13.05.2010 Posts: 8
      I can say that i have this problem!My solution?Win one big pot!It rebuilds my confidence instantly! :D
    • pinnryder
      pinnryder
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      Joined: 10.11.2009 Posts: 597
      Originally posted by Schris7
      My problem is that i loose motivation when i win or gain when i loose.
      Ok, to be honest I have to say that I think this is very weird...
      When I'm on a run and winning a lot I am more self confident with my game and I want to play more to keep my hot run up and keep winning.
      But maybe I play a bit more cautious when I'm on a loosing streak (I know I shouldn't but that's a different topic).

      On a different matter a "flip" is never exactly a flip. The pair is mostly a favourite (except against suited connectors), so in the long run you will win more with your PP when you have a "flip"...
    • Schris7
      Schris7
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      Joined: 15.01.2007 Posts: 730
      Originally posted by Fongie
      There is no justice in variance, it's all in your mind.
      I think the best way is just for you to play a lot. It sounds simple, but once youve played a lot of sessions you stop caring about it and know that the next session can be winning or losing no matter what happened the last one, just from experience.

      well i think i ve played a lot but still the feeling is the same :)



      Originally posted by pinnryder


      On a different matter a "flip" is never exactly a flip. The pair is mostly a favourite (except against suited connectors), so in the long run you will win more with your PP when you have a "flip"...

      you re going into details and u miss the whole point i believe.
    • GunFlavoured
      GunFlavoured
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      Joined: 19.10.2008 Posts: 626
      I know what you mean... After a hot session you think if I play anymore I'm 'due' for a downswing. Ideally if you KNOW your game is faultless you should ignore all results and treat it as one big session. Obviously that's not possible. Maybe when you have winning sessions you could make a habbit of studying instead of playing the next session. This way you will skip the downswings and have only upswings ;)
    • 8979687
      8979687
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      Joined: 11.11.2008 Posts: 2,225
      Originally posted by GunFlavoured
      I know what you mean... After a hot session you think if I play anymore I'm 'due' for a downswing. Ideally if you KNOW your game is faultless you should ignore all results and treat it as one big session. Obviously that's not possible. Maybe when you have winning sessions you could make a habbit of studying instead of playing the next session. This way you will skip the downswings and have only upswings ;)
      Firstly, you can not possibly "know you are playing faultless" when in fact there is no such thing.

      The rest of that post is a level I am sure.

      The question is how much of this current slide downward is our direct fault for faulty play
      and review and find these leaks and plug them. But it is like a sinking ship with 3 holes in
      the side and only 2 plugs. You plug two holes and the water comes in the third so you
      take one of the plugs and move it and this dance goes on forever. This is poker and
      its learning curve.

      That aside I agree with the one long session but not avoiding playing so back to the main post..

      I had a fantastic run for 2 weeks straight where every single day
      was a winning session. And good profit every day. It lead me to try
      my best to focus on the fact that it will not live forever and that I
      will go through a rough time eventually and to remember these good
      times when my next rough time comes.

      I did not however dread playing for fear it was around the corner.

      I also failed in my atempt at focusing on the good when bad came as when I moved up
      and got bitch slapped and not even that badly I tilted and got pissed. I agree totally
      with Fongie. Once I play enough of the new limit to see a standard pattern of rising
      over time with the dips doing their natural thing I will just playon unphased.

      But along with the playing on and more volume has to come in more study and self control
      otherwise our play gets worse as the effects of the negative get a hold of us.

      Someone on these forums said it before I forget who so sorry for no quote but you
      can not play your way out of a downswing. And that is especiialy true if we take a long
      term sample (lifetime) and see that over all our profit has been going up so there is
      no such thing as a downswing in the firstplace.
    • Hahaownedlolz
      Hahaownedlolz
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      Joined: 24.04.2009 Posts: 1,755
      Originally posted by Fongie
      There is no justice in variance, it's all in your mind.
      I think the best way is just for you to play a lot. It sounds simple, but once youve played a lot of sessions you stop caring about it and know that the next session can be winning or losing no matter what happened the last one, just from experience.

      My sick run at the $1000 freeroll would strongly disagree with that :D . I'm not talking about winning 3 coinflips in a row. I'm talking about winning AK off VS AK off VS JJ by making a flush on the river. I rivered a flush like 3 times with nonsuited cards.. it was rediculous.. Never seen anything even close like that.
    • andreibalint
      andreibalint
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      Joined: 11.04.2009 Posts: 872
      Quick question: Why do you ask questions you already know the answer at?
    • usora
      usora
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      Joined: 08.06.2009 Posts: 29
      I'm not that experienced player and i didn't play so many hands so i can tell how big upswings and downswings can be so can you tell me is this normal. I'm playing mostly heads up SnG lately and in last 4-5 days i had terrible downswing i'm constantly losing all-ins when i am 70 -80% favorite. For instance AK vs A2 or AQ vs QT or KK vs 77. I dont know exact number but in 50 cases where i am 70% favorite i lost 35 times. Its really frustrating lose so much with things like that. Is this normal is that happening to you guys as well??
    • jbpatzer
      jbpatzer
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      Joined: 22.11.2009 Posts: 6,944
      I can't quite believe this thread. They're independent events. There's no memory. It's psychological.

      You're a hair's breadth away from saying it's rigged.
    • jbpatzer
      jbpatzer
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      Joined: 22.11.2009 Posts: 6,944
      And while I'm on the subject, how can this possibly be the 'top thread of the week'! You have lots of videos by earnest young German men saying how we should be playing the +EV line because we will make money that way in the long run. And then this!

      Does variance have memory? No

      Is the moon made of cheese? No

      Sorry to vent, but really! Pffffff
    • 8979687
      8979687
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      Joined: 11.11.2008 Posts: 2,225
      You have a thing for earnest young German men I take it?

      In all seriousness this thread can be good for newer players or people going through a rough time.
    • Schris7
      Schris7
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      Joined: 15.01.2007 Posts: 730
      jbpatzer u could be less sarcastic and if u cant then dont bother to post .

      I clearly say in the end its psycological issue and that i wanted to hear opinions of people that maybe have the same problem .
    • Atoks
      Atoks
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      Joined: 01.06.2008 Posts: 1,354
      First off (and I don't mean offense) this thread is mixing apples and cherries. Math and science are one side while feelings and mental approach on another. It is a hugely demanding task to make one work for another, either way u approach it. Humans as a species have a remarkable talent to "create bridges" between gaps that are so far apart it is amazing we are even able to comprehend (a little bit) of either side of the breach.

      On the one hand OP takes on variance (cause/effect/consequence/w.e. u want to call it) which in itself has so many factors that it is impossibly arrogant to say (OP said it a few posts later) that going into details does not matter. Details matter the most. I'm sure that if any of us would be more successful even by 0,1% at the start of our poker experience, we'd all have completely different bankrolls to the ones we have. Details are key and will always be key.

      On the other OP tries to make sense of what he is feeling (and how to improve on that) through what kind of results he gets through using the amount of knowledge about sngs, which produces a random result. It is (at best) unhealthy to approach poker in this way mentally. Result of ur action is the most unimportant thing at poker. What Schris7 (and so many others) are doing is self-destructive. It is never possible to be certain that because u've won AKo vs. 77 (u can insert any kinds of hands for preflop here) once that u will also win it the next time. Or perhaps even ever again.

      And there in lies the problem of many poker players (even me). Shaping the proper mentality is probably the test many more fail at than learning and understanding correct play in every situation. It seems this happens because of that remarkable human trait I mentioned at the start of this post. I guess a good starting guideline for how to improve ur poker approach would be to go against ur basic instincts and try to see things in a more empirical sense. Emotions have very little to no room in poker. Yet we can't ever ignore or block them out completely.

      This is an immensly complex topic. Mainly because people are so different and what works for someone might not work for anyone else. If one is absolutely certain that they want to pursue a poker career, this is only one of the (very hard) problems that have to be resolved properly. People think poker is just about math and statistics. Or grinding and starting at a screen. Or having no life and spending every waking hour clicking and watching money fall into the players laps. Depending on who u are it is more/less about ur mentality as well. This thread illustrates that, and how important a solid mental approach should be, perfectly.

      Stop building castles in the clouds when u win. Stop demolishing ur foundations when u lose.
    • Yoghi
      Yoghi
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      Joined: 10.09.2007 Posts: 14,387
      No it doesn't and it won't in the future
    • jbpatzer
      jbpatzer
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      Joined: 22.11.2009 Posts: 6,944
      OK. Point taken. Was feeling a bit grumpy. And with regard to the 'earnest young German men' remark, I always find it a bit galling when they're so manifestly better than me at poker. I'm a 44 year old maths professor, so I see you university students far too often already! Seriously, I'm willing to learn from anyone, and appreciate all the help I've had from this site.
    • Jaime001254
      Jaime001254
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      Joined: 02.07.2008 Posts: 366
      http://nlvm.usu.edu/en/nav/frames_asid_305_g_3_t_5.html
      i really like this simulation... you can see sick runs without losing money ;)
    • fun101rockets
      fun101rockets
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      Joined: 01.06.2008 Posts: 1,162
      Originally posted by Atoks

      Stop building castles in the clouds when u win. Stop demolishing ur foundations when u lose.
      thats basic human nature though
    • Atoks
      Atoks
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      Joined: 01.06.2008 Posts: 1,354
      Originally posted by fun101rockets
      Originally posted by Atoks

      Stop building castles in the clouds when u win. Stop demolishing ur foundations when u lose.
      thats basic human nature though
      Yep. That's why I wrote earlier in the post that u have to resist ur basic instincts in order to build up the proper mentality.
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