[NL2-NL10] NL10 88(bu), fr

    • TetraQuark
      Joined: 21.05.2008 Posts: 1,520
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (7 handed)

      Known players:
      BU (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is BU with 8, 8.
      MP1 raises to $0.40, MP2 folds, MP3 calls $0.40, CO calls $0.40, Hero calls $0.40, 2 folds.

      Flop: ($1.75) 4, K, 8 (4 players)
      MP1 bets $1.10, MP3 calls $1.10, CO folds, Hero raises to $5.00, MP1 raises to $9.50, MP3 folds, Hero raises to $14.00, MP1 calls $4.50.

      Turn: ($30.85) 7 (2 players)

      River: ($30.85) 6 (2 players)

      Final Pot: $30.85.

      Results follow:

      MP1 shows three of a kind, kings(Kh Kc).
      Hero shows three of a kind, eights(8c 8d).

      MP1 wins with three of a kind, kings(Kh Kc).

      Hi guys!

      Just wondering if I can find a fold here. Guy is 15/8/1.4/38(wts) 543hands

      I am having real hard time laying down a set in situations like this. On one side the brain is telling me "look at the statistics you moron" and on the other "this is nl10, ppl will go broke often enough with AK, AA, QQ , JJ". But lately I am runnig into these kind of situations really too often.
      What do you advise? Thanks for help.
  • 3 replies
    • johnbeattie85
      Joined: 11.09.2008 Posts: 716
      This is fine. He could just as easily have 44, and very occasioanly AA or AK. I guess you could argue that he would limp 44 preflop, but think it's pretty hard to fold after putting the raise in. You don't really know what hands he raises/limps from that position, and don't know if he overplays AK AA type stuff.

      If you are running into these situations often, you are most likley set mining low pocket pairs in the wrong spots. ie - you don't want to try hit bottom set vs someone that will only stack off with sets or better in that situation.
    • kymupa
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364
      Well after you have raised you can't fold there unless you know he is stacking off only with KK here. I don't think 15/8 guy is raising 44 preflop from that position. So if he is capable of playing like that with KK+, AKs, AKo you have 80% so it's an easy shove. And I doubt he is folding KK+, AKs, AKo here because it's NL10.
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510

      Truth be told I doubt a 15/8/1.4 would actually make that small 3-bet with Kx and like kyumpa said he probably won't show up with 44 too often. That said it's still very possible he would play AA like that because AA is the nuts on any flop.

      Even assuming he only plays KK+ like that, you have only 3 combos of KK out there and 6 combos of AA, so you're still a decent favorite over KK+ on that board, which means you have to go broke with middle set after putting so much money in already.

      As for general advice it's hard to say, it all comes down to a gut feeling for most of us. If you don't have it yet you'll learn through playing and stacking people and getting stacked yourself. All I can tell you is it cannot be a big mistake to get set-over-set'd, ever, so when in doubt you shouldn't be looking to make those folds in my opinion. I'm sure you run into situations where it's a lot closer tho.

      Hope it helps.