You have the nuts, villain bets on river, bet sizing?

    • alenstrat
      alenstrat
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.03.2009 Posts: 821
      I have tons of situations I have the nuts and have been getting chips into the pot from my opponent on the flop and turn. The river comes and for example the villain bets, or if I bet first I bet, what should I be doing, shoving allin always? Value betting?

      I did shoving as an experiment for about a week every time I had the nuts on the river, with poor results, I was getting called less then 1/10 times shoving in the river against a small raise or when acting first on the river. I was getting way more value making another small value bet in the river, to which 8 or 9/10 times that bet was getting called by the curious villain.

      Should I be using a certain bet size as a rule?

      I realize opponent reads are important though, if you have a very fishy opponent the shove has a good chance of working, when he thinks "this guy is trying to bluff me".
  • 9 replies
    • grizzlybear
      grizzlybear
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.09.2009 Posts: 3
      looks like you answered your own question

      shove with nuts = poor results
    • Escobario
      Escobario
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2009 Posts: 183
      err i dont think he answered his own question... he just knows not to shove... theres a whole lot of area in between minraise and shove allin.

      sorry i cant really help i want to know the same thing! lol.
    • NightFrostaSS
      NightFrostaSS
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2008 Posts: 5,255
      Depends on stack to pot ratio and strength of your opponents river betting range obv.
    • Joronamo
      Joronamo
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.10.2008 Posts: 649
      Only jam when you can specifically put your oppenent on a hand.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      example:

      1) Villian bets 3 streets on AA3r78, you have 33. We know he is likely to have AX (AK/AQ) and won't fold. In this case we think he's strong and should jam.

      2) Villian bets flop, checks turn and bets river. We have 88 on A3698. Now in this case if villian was really strong he would have 3 barreled. By shoving we are chasing away all his AX hands. We shuld raise smaller, maybe 2.5-3X to hopefully get a call from AX.

      3) We have AJ on Q98s2T and villian is a fishy player who doesn't know the difference between absolute hand strength and relative hand strength. He bets flop checks turn and bets the river again. We should minraise here, hoping he stupidly makes a crying call with set/twopair. By raising bigger we isolate ourselves against JX/KJ
    • alenstrat
      alenstrat
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.03.2009 Posts: 821
      Thanks for the replies, that last answer was really good.

      Things are so obvious the majority of times, just that one doesn't see them straight away as a beginner. All things seem to tend towards pure easy logic in poker. I think the conclusion from that last post is : one just has to watch and observe a lot.

      Most situations are a repeat of other situations and by just asking yourself what the other guy could be holding and not focusing only on what you're holding you can often make the best decision. So obviously (not so obvious for me up until recently as a beginner) not all situations can be put in the same bag. You can't shove every hand, can't value bet every hand, and you can even check some hands (ie overpair or even trips where you sense something strange going on and might be way ahead or way behind).
    • jbpatzer
      jbpatzer
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.11.2009 Posts: 6,944
      Originally posted by alenstrat

      I did shoving as an experiment for about a week every time I had the nuts on the river, with poor results, I was getting called less then 1/10 times shoving in the river against a small raise or when acting first on the river.
      Now ask what's the optimal bet size for a bluff. If each of thee shoves had been with air, would you have turned a profit? I bet you would.
    • alenstrat
      alenstrat
      Bronze
      Joined: 13.03.2009 Posts: 821
      Originally posted by jbpatzer
      Originally posted by alenstrat

      I did shoving as an experiment for about a week every time I had the nuts on the river, with poor results, I was getting called less then 1/10 times shoving in the river against a small raise or when acting first on the river.
      Now ask what's the optimal bet size for a bluff. If each of thee shoves had been with air, would you have turned a profit? I bet you would.
      Very interesting point, but as I read somewhere, is the sum of all the pots that you win with those 8 or 9 successful bluff shoves greater or smaller then losing one or two full stacks on the shove bluff?

      And then again, here we seem to be doing the same thing again, putting all players or all shoves in the same basket. There are definitely player types you might want to shove against and others you won't.
    • roswellx
      roswellx
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.12.2008 Posts: 599
      Bets depend on your villain. If you're playing

      vs. loose and passive --> you either want to raise small or shove. Reason is they mostly won't be able to call you on the river. Because they are loose they won't have too much made hands in their range. I think shove > small raise.

      vs. tight and passive ---> you want to really crush him with your bets because you have the best hand and he has the 2nd best hand for sure. Your implied odds against this kind of players are huge. Shove > small raise

      vs. loose and aggressive --> I think I'm more inclined to min raise as this type of players mostly think your hand is weak... Tho on the river they don't get tricky much.. Small raise > shove

      vs. tight and aggressive ----> just ship whenever you can, they may think you're pushing them out and make a hero call with bluff catchers... balanced small raises and shoves drive them crazy :)

      I'm not saying this is the optimal play but I couldn't come up with something better :)