AA vs KK = +EV for KK

    • SSSC2NV
      SSSC2NV
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      Joined: 29.03.2009 Posts: 136
      I know people say this shit all the time, but for real.. WTF.

      I've seen this 3x today, 5x in total..

      AA vs KK pre flop, board is dry.. UNTIL THE RIVER. K hits on the river EVERYTIME!

      I just dont get it, I understand once in a while, but come on.. that frequently? and the same series of events? Strange man...
  • 15 replies
    • mirked
      mirked
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      Joined: 22.02.2009 Posts: 605
      Originally posted by SSSC2NV
      I know people say this shit all the time, but for real.. WTF.

      I've seen this 3x today, 5x in total..

      AA vs KK pre flop, board is dry.. UNTIL THE RIVER. K hits on the river EVERYTIME!

      I just dont get it, I understand once in a while, but come on.. that frequently? and the same series of events? Strange man...
      Variance.
      And 5 times in total? - That's nothing
    • SSSC2NV
      SSSC2NV
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      Joined: 29.03.2009 Posts: 136
      thats in 45 mins... 4 tabling...lol
    • 8979687
      8979687
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      Joined: 11.11.2008 Posts: 2,225
      Nope you are wrong... The most dangerous hand for AA is Q5 suited....

      Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, 6.5 Tournament, 15/30 Blinds (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

      SB (t1500)
      BB (t1500)
      UTG (t1500)
      UTG+1 (t1500)
      MP1 (t1500)
      MP2 (t1500)
      MP3 (t1500)
      CO (t1500)
      Hero (Button) (t1500)

      Hero's M: 33.33

      Preflop: Hero is Button with A, A
      UTG calls t30, 2 folds, MP2 calls t30, 1 fold, CO calls t30, Hero bets t210, SB calls t195, 1 fold, UTG calls t180, 1 fold, CO calls t180

      Flop: (t900) 3, 8, 5 (4 players)
      SB bets t900, UTG raises to t1290 (All-In), 1 fold, Hero calls t1290 (All-In), SB calls t390 (All-In)

      Turn: (t4770) K (3 players, 3 all-in)

      River: (t4770) 5 (3 players, 3 all-in)

      Total pot: t4770

      Results:
      Hero had A, A (two pair, Aces and fives).
      SB had J, J (two pair, Jacks and fives).
      UTG had Q, 5 (three of a kind, fives).
      Outcome: UTG won t4770
    • tcs35
      tcs35
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      Joined: 31.01.2009 Posts: 3,583
      It is only a small sample. When you can show this happening over a large sample it may be different :)

      Keep grinding
    • taavi1337
      taavi1337
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      Joined: 29.05.2009 Posts: 2,920
      Originally posted by SSSC2NV
      K hits on the river EVERYTIME!
      Now that you've discovered this secret you can easily beat anyone.
    • SSSC2NV
      SSSC2NV
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      Joined: 29.03.2009 Posts: 136
      Originally posted by taavi1337
      Originally posted by SSSC2NV
      K hits on the river EVERYTIME!
      Now that you've discovered this secret you can easily beat anyone.
      HAHAHA thank you! Now I will go exploit the secret!!
    • DomenViBritannia
      DomenViBritannia
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      Joined: 11.05.2010 Posts: 24
      I think there was no need for mockery there Mr. Gold level.
    • igrbavac
      igrbavac
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      Joined: 20.10.2009 Posts: 19
      I've started saving my AA preflop all in called hands , want to get very large sample so I can prove that variance is not what happens on full tilt. For now out of 88 AA hands (over all of them I was 81% favourite) I won 47 and lost 41 which makes 53,4% . On that small sample chances for such differences are close to 0. But I want to get to a sample of let's say a thousand AA hands. Then tolerable difference should be +/- 2% . If it wolud be like 27% I'm seriously thinking of contacting a lawyer...
    • SSSC2NV
      SSSC2NV
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      Joined: 29.03.2009 Posts: 136
      hahaha should be interesting to see the outcome of that.. I think you'll spend more money on the lawyer than you could ever win.. lol
    • 8979687
      8979687
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      Joined: 11.11.2008 Posts: 2,225
      Here are two screens for you.

      This is over 1309 $6.50 SNGs on Full Tilt.

      Here is all hands ever played sorted by highest won hand % and go figure AA is at the top of the list.

      This is not sorted by most chips won just highest percent the hands win period when dealt as my hole cards.




      I used to have a DB o over 4k games and the same thing happened.

      Out of all these games if I set it to just show the ALL INs preflop the sample is smaller but
      still shows AA in first and winning by far the most often.

      I know 93s is in this list but note it is only been all in 7 times so obvously it has a high win %.



      That Q5 suited hand I posted is an example of what seems like is happening ALL the time.

      I have gone through a sample of over 200 SNGs where AA was just doing soo poorly and it contributed
      big time to a lack of success. AA KK QQ were just getting toasted over and over again but over just
      1300 games you can see it balances out. And over 4k SNGs it balanced out as well.

      Would someone who has HEM and has a sampe size of several thousand games or piles of hands just
      post your results like this and we can see it will be the same.
    • GunFlavoured
      GunFlavoured
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      Joined: 19.10.2008 Posts: 626
      After 65K hands of rush poker I filtered my results by hands AI pre-flop and KK is my biggest losing hand. I guess that pretty much sums up rush though, bunch of nits who only raise AA and set mine. Even though KK sucks for me when AI pre-flop it is still my second biggest winner (behind AA).
    • shortstackhero
      shortstackhero
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      Joined: 27.05.2010 Posts: 1
      hey dude i can sorta swear online poker is rigged. i was playing on full tilt and, yes, i'm losing to runner runners so often i got on my own version of full tilt. hence, i end up going to a 5/10 cents table with 10 dollar buy in, and i still lose. Then i start swearing all over the place and say things like 'online poker sucks', 'i'm through with online poker once my account is finished'. I went all in at every hand. EVERY HAND. i'd say things like 'come take my money and cash out whenn you're on the up' to induce them to all in me. initially they did not make a call on me. eventually, some decided to be brave and went iin with me on good odds. all better odds. i had 10 callers in all, and i only lost twice. ALL on considerably worse odds. i won 50 plus dollars on that table alone, on a 10 dollar buy in. i never ever had such a good run when i'm playing serious - reading opponents well, calculating bet to pot odds, playing in good positions and making good bluffs, getting out of the hand when in trouble despite having good hands (and most of the time i;m right after that fella showed his cards) - just to lose on runner runners and the 3 outers and stuff. i swear online poker is rigged and i'm desperate to cash out. problem is i cant do it. i've emailed full tilt cashier and will be hoping for a reply these few days. i even saved my disgusting hands on powerpoint but i wasnt able to attach it here. approach me for it if you guys want. i'lll show u how i won my 8 out of 10 hands, all on the same table, same stretch of time, and all on lower odds.
    • strosdegoz
      strosdegoz
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      Joined: 24.11.2007 Posts: 184
      I had over 40 bad beats yesterday playing SSS
    • shane0878
      shane0878
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      Joined: 30.06.2009 Posts: 164
      Could i be that we only ever remember the bad beats.
      Like who remembers every time you raise AA and only get the blinds.
      I don't.
      But remember alot of my AA loosing to 93 off suit.
    • GunFlavoured
      GunFlavoured
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      Joined: 19.10.2008 Posts: 626
      Originally posted by shortstackhero
      hey dude i can sorta swear online poker is rigged. i was playing on full tilt and, yes, i'm losing to runner runners so often i got on my own version of full tilt. hence, i end up going to a 5/10 cents table with 10 dollar buy in, and i still lose. Then i start swearing all over the place and say things like 'online poker sucks', 'i'm through with online poker once my account is finished'. I went all in at every hand. EVERY HAND. i'd say things like 'come take my money and cash out whenn you're on the up' to induce them to all in me. initially they did not make a call on me. eventually, some decided to be brave and went iin with me on good odds. all better odds. i had 10 callers in all, and i only lost twice. ALL on considerably worse odds. i won 50 plus dollars on that table alone, on a 10 dollar buy in. i never ever had such a good run when i'm playing serious - reading opponents well, calculating bet to pot odds, playing in good positions and making good bluffs, getting out of the hand when in trouble despite having good hands (and most of the time i;m right after that fella showed his cards) - just to lose on runner runners and the 3 outers and stuff. i swear online poker is rigged and i'm desperate to cash out. problem is i cant do it. i've emailed full tilt cashier and will be hoping for a reply these few days. i even saved my disgusting hands on powerpoint but i wasnt able to attach it here. approach me for it if you guys want. i'lll show u how i won my 8 out of 10 hands, all on the same table, same stretch of time, and all on lower odds.
      Wow! Please send me that powerpoint now! How did you possibly win 8/10 hands in one session?????? Full Tilt will be pretty much screwed once we show them this evidence!

      Originally posted by strosdegoz
      I had over 40 bad beats yesterday playing SSS
      Yeah but when you play SSS, every beat is a bad beat. You're bound to be ahead when you fold 99.99999% of hands.