[NL20-NL50] NL50 66 set - hero fold or not ?

    • MatiKosa
      MatiKosa
      Global
      Joined: 13.07.2008 Posts: 6,405
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Graj rękę

      $0.25/$0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (3 handed)

      Known players:
      BU (Hero):
      $54.07
      SB:
      $47.89
      BB:
      $28.90


      Preflop: Hero is BU with 6, 6.
      Hero raises to $1.25, SB calls $1.00, BB folds.

      Flop: ($3) J, Q, 6 (2 players)
      SB bets $1.50, Hero raises to $7.50, SB calls $6.00.

      Turn: ($18) 8 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $15.00, SB calls $15.00.

      River: ($48) A (2 players)
      SB bets $23.89, Hero ? ? ?


      85/46/1.7/50/50/(13) | VPIP / PFR/ AF / WTSD / W$SD / (Hands)
      Fold to Flop C-Bet: 0/2

      Although the sample is pretty small, it is quite reliable - this guy called nearly everything preflop.

      Flop
      I made a pot-sized raise, because there are a lot of draws on the board. He could also have a Qx or stubborn Jx. Nevertheless, the fish has got to pay to see the next card.

      Turn
      OESD with T9 caught a straight. But this is only a small portion of his whole range in my opinion. I wanted to make a PSB again, but I realized, that with $15-$18 he would have 1/2 PSB left on the river and we should get it in easily.
      Timing Tell: before call, he was thinking quite long, about 12-15 seconds (which in my opinion indicates a made hand, for example AQ/KQ - fishes tend to snap c/c with draws).

      River
      Generally speaking the worst card in the deck. Next OESD with KT has just caught a straight, but the worst problem is the third spade.
      Timing Tell: he shoved in about 1 or 2 seconds, instantly I would say.

      About ~~ 25% equity is needed for the call.
      I gave him two pair with {AQ, QJ}, straights {KT, T9} and ALL POSSIBLE spade-suited hands.


      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 19,355% 19,355% 0,000% 80,645% 6h6d
      Player 2: 80,645% 80,645% 0,000% 19,355% AQs, KsJs, KTs, Ks9s, Ks8s, Ks7s, Ks5s, Ks4s, Ks3s, Ks2s, QJs, JsTs, Js9s, Js8s, Js7s, Js5s, Js4s, Js3s, Js2s, T9s, Ts8s, Ts7s, Ts5s, Ts4s, Ts3s, Ts2s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 9s5s, 9s4s, 9s3s, 9s2s, 8s7s, 8s5s, 8s4s, 8s3s, 8s2s, 7s5s, 7s4s, 7s3s, 7s2s, 5s4s, 5s3s, 5s2s, 4s3s, 4s2s, 3s2s, AQo, KTo, QJo, T9o

      It seems it should be a fold. Or maybe I missed some hands in his range, for example KsQx / KsJx, with which he might turn them into a bluff. Reducing some marginal suited hands like 32s, 92s, etc. will increase my equity a bit.

      Hero fold or call ?
  • 4 replies