Expectation of coolers and setups

• Bronze
Joined: 13.04.2008
I would like to know how often I can expect a setup mathematically and what is the minimum action required to profit including them.

For example with marginal hands betting/calling down may run into a bad river or a monster and make you question the play. When a tonne of setups happen and cause you a losing streak it seems like variance but in the long run how often will coolers happen on the average?
• 4 replies
• Bronze
Joined: 02.01.2010
Depends on the probability of getting the strong hand and the stronger hand. The probability of 2 events happening at the same time is P1xP2 where P1 and P2 are individual probability of each event. This is because the 2 events are not independent of each other.

Hope that helps, even if just a bit!
• Black
Joined: 03.03.2008
you run into coolers just as often as everybody else, it shouldn't have an effect on your winrate. i know it sucks, but it sucks for everyone equally
• Bronze
Joined: 13.04.2008
This may be apply more to rush games where everyone plays tighter, and faster, so marginal hands may lose some value.
• Black
Joined: 16.10.2007
As often as you overset/setup someone else!

Running bad in these spots is often the main way you experience negative variance and can be realllllllllly frustrating!!

You just have to convince yourself that if roles were reversed the money would go in as well so effectively it's an EV 0 spot, even though it's happened to you 5 times in a row in 20BB pots >:X