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[NL2-NL10] Bad Spot for Second Barrel, wrong opponent. WARNING - DETAILED!

    • DaPhunk
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      This spot I second barrelled without really thinking due to villains low f2cbet, knowing he calls a lot on flop. However, I did not fully think through his turn-calling range and folding range.


      IPoker Network $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
      The Official Hand History Converter

      SB: $9.90
      BB: $10.00
      UTG: $1.48
      UTG+1: $19.10
      Hero (MP1): $13.43
      MP2: $3.61
      CO: $8.61
      BTN: $15.33

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is MP1 with Q :diamond: T :heart:
      2 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.30, 1 fold, BB calls $0.20

      Here I give villain Any Two Face Cards except AK and maybe AQ and a couple of others, any PP below JJ sometimes JJ or QQ, a whole ton of SC's maybe 54s+ some Suited one gapers like T8s+ or even weaker and probably not so much pure junk.

      Flop: ($0.95) 8 :club: K :spade: 3 :club: (3 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $0.60, BTN calls $0.60, BB folds

      3-way flop I think Villain is estimating I cbet here a ton and calling with any form of draw and pair to try and show it down. so now he's on K5+, 8x and 77 to TT. He can also have various FD possibilities but no Straight draw. I guess he will often raise this drawy flop with two-pair and sets and sometimes TP.

      Turn: ($2.15) 4 :heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.20, BTN calls $1.20

      Given that Villain is a calling station I would say he is only folding his exceptionally weak holdings, 5's, 6's, 7's some 8x possibly 99 once in a blue moon. I doubt he folds FD's here even if I bet more. I guess he folds with just 30 to 35% of his range.

      Handrange on turn - 16.74% "JJ-99, 77-66, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, K6s+, QcJc, QcTc, Qc9c, JcTc, Jc9c, Tc9c, T8s, 98s, 9c7c, 86s+, 7c6c, 6c5c, K9o+, 98o, 87o"

      Calls with - 13.57% "JJ-TT, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, K6s+, QcJc, QcTc, Qc9c, JcTc, Jc9c, Tc9c, Tc8c, 9c8c, 9c7c, 8c7c, 8c6c, 7c6c, 6c5c, K9o+"

      Second Barrel -ev; that means he only folds 19% of his turn-range = Second Barrel is a bad move. I need to either checkraise to make him fold all his draws or C/F and bet river if it blanks. I'm not considering a 3rd barrel at this stage but I guess it could be almost as effective as a check/raise but cheaper?

      What about a Checkraise? If I checkraise I guess he calls with at most - 3.32% AcJc, KTs+, Kc9c, KJo+. This means is folding aproximately 80% of his hands so even if I checkraise big this is +ev.

      What about C/F turn bet blank river?

      I think he doesn't bet 9.35% "TT-99, 77-66, K7s-K5s, Th8h, Td8d, 9h8h, 9d8d, 8h7h, 8d7d, 8h6h, 8d6d, K9o-K8o, Th8d, Td8s, 98o, 87o, 8h6d, 8d6s"

      roughly 55% of his handrange. He calls blank riverbet with maybe 3.62% "TT-99, K7s-K5s, K9o, K7o" thats 61% Fold Equity on river. I'm winning the pot only 34% of the time from the turn though even if it is a safer alternative.

      River: ($4.55) 6 :heart: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN checks

      I'm too tired to go and calculate EV now though, and don't think I have my ranges right so can someone please help me work out what the best line is here? If I didn't think villain would play his sets and two-pairs straight forward I would likely opt for Check/Fold Turn bet River option.


  • 4 replies
    • johnbeattie85
      Joined: 11.09.2008 Posts: 716
      You are overthinking imo. If he calls that flop 3handed, he has a hand. If he has a hand, he is not folding that turn card, and you have zero semi-bluff equity. I don't think turn check/raise is +EV in this situation for similar reasons. You are overestimating your fold equity, underestimating the strength of his betting range, and not taking into account the times he slowplays 2 pair+ on the flop. I would just c/f the river. I don't really expect him to call twice with made hands and then fold a blank river, and you are ahead of many of his non-paired flush draws. Main advice – don't try to bluff in spots where the opponent is likely to have a hand and the board doesn't change in such a way to reduce the strength of his range.
    • DaPhunk
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      You're saying it is overthinking to put villain on a range and to try and work out the most +ev line with this in mind?

      Crazy stuff :p I don't see what is wrong with trying to think about a hand in a detailed manner in retrospect like this to try and improve my game. My normal line is to C/F turn and C/F river, was just wondering If a different line is more +ev.
    • johnbeattie85
      Joined: 11.09.2008 Posts: 716
      No not at all. I'm just meant it's a fairly straightforward spot, where making highly detailed and opponent specific range analysis isn't really necessary. But if analysing like this helps with your game, then great. : )
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510

      Long story short, I think he has too many Kx hands in his range for you to profitably 2/3 barrel him with no outs unless you know his flop calling range is so wide that he shows up with a ton of nothing hands that he could fold to a bet. You'll encounter players who just call every time on the flop no matter what to see a turn and then start "thinking", they just don't want to see only 3 cards, against them it's an easy 2nd barrel with anything you fired at the flop with.

      Against most tho, including this villain that still folds close to 30% to c-bets so he doesn't have complete bullshit too often, your situation looks pretty bleak on that innocuous turn. So I'd just give up on that hand and reconsider with something that has at least some outs, say a 5-outer like 43 or even 3 outs with Ax looks a lot better than QT because it has hopes to beat Kx.

      Hope it helps.