[NL20-NL50] WARNING - DETAILED THOUGHT PROCESS (Bad 2nd barrel spot)

    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      This spot I second barrelled without really thinking due to villains low f2cbet, knowing he calls a lot on flop. However, I did not fully think through his turn-calling range and folding range.

      Hand;

      IPoker Network $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
      The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

      SB: $9.90
      BB: $10.00
      UTG: $1.48
      UTG+1: $19.10
      Hero (MP1): $13.43
      MP2: $3.61
      CO: $8.61
      BTN: $15.33

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is MP1 with Q :diamond: T :heart:
      2 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.30, 1 fold, BB calls $0.20

      Here I give villain Any Two Face Cards except AK and maybe AQ and a couple of others, any PP below JJ sometimes JJ or QQ, a whole ton of SC's maybe 54s+ some Suited one gapers like T8s+ or even weaker and probably not so much pure junk.

      Flop: ($0.95) 8 :club: K :spade: 3 :club: (3 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $0.60, BTN calls $0.60, BB folds

      3-way flop I think Villain is estimating I cbet here a ton and calling with any form of draw and pair to try and show it down. so now he's on K5+, 8x and 77 to TT. He can also have various FD possibilities but no Straight draw. I guess he will often raise this drawy flop with two-pair and sets and sometimes TP.

      Turn: ($2.15) 4 :heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.20, BTN calls $1.20

      Given that Villain is a calling station I would say he is only folding his exceptionally weak holdings, 5's, 6's, 7's some 8x possibly 99 once in a blue moon. I doubt he folds FD's here even if I bet more. I guess he folds with just 30 to 35% of his range.

      Handrange on turn - 16.74% "JJ-99, 77-66, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, K6s+, QcJc, QcTc, Qc9c, JcTc, Jc9c, Tc9c, T8s, 98s, 9c7c, 86s+, 7c6c, 6c5c, K9o+, 98o, 87o"

      Calls with - 13.57% "JJ-TT, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, K6s+, QcJc, QcTc, Qc9c, JcTc, Jc9c, Tc9c, Tc8c, 9c8c, 9c7c, 8c7c, 8c6c, 7c6c, 6c5c, K9o+"

      Second Barrel -ev; that means he only folds 19% of his turn-range = Second Barrel is a bad move. I need to either checkraise to make him fold all his draws or C/F and bet river if it blanks. I'm not considering a 3rd barrel at this stage but I guess it could be almost as effective as a check/raise but cheaper?

      What about a Checkraise? If I checkraise I guess he calls with at most - 3.32% AcJc, KTs+, Kc9c, KJo+. This means is folding aproximately 80% of his hands so even if I checkraise big this is +ev.

      What about C/F turn bet blank river?

      I think he doesn't bet 9.35% "TT-99, 77-66, K7s-K5s, Th8h, Td8d, 9h8h, 9d8d, 8h7h, 8d7d, 8h6h, 8d6d, K9o-K8o, Th8d, Td8s, 98o, 87o, 8h6d, 8d6s"

      roughly 55% of his handrange. He calls blank riverbet with maybe 3.62% "TT-99, K7s-K5s, K9o, K7o" thats 61% Fold Equity on river. I'm winning the pot only 34% of the time from the turn though even if it is a safer alternative.

      River: ($4.55) 6 :heart: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN checks

      I'm too tired to go and calculate EV now though, and don't think I have my ranges right so can someone please help me work out what the best line is here? If I didn't think villain would play his sets and two-pairs straight forward I would likely opt for Check/Fold Turn bet River option.

      Villain;



      After all this thought I'm actually thinking I should very simply 3barrel seeing as I'm putting him on so many draws and 2nd pairs.
  • 4 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      really big posts :)
      c-bet is fine on that board
      I would likely c/f turn, since once he calls I think he isn´t going to fold his draws, Kx and likely not any pair that he called on the flop. So you have to fire river barrel and even then he might call you down
      Problem with c/r is that again he doesn´t really like to b/f his draws, Kx, maybe he can fold 8x and lower pairs. And once he calls I guess you have to shove river, but even then he might call you down
      So it is very high risk and since you don´t have any equity against Kx then I´d prefer c/f
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Ok, thanks. I think its good to try and think things through :)
    • letmewinplz8
      letmewinplz8
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.05.2010 Posts: 439
      Quick Question : If turn was a non club J could we consider the ch/rai?
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I could consider, but I think it is a littlebit too big overbet shove
      If I´d like to make him fold smt I would barrel both turn and river