[NL20-NL50] NL50 Rush, JJ overpair on flop

    • GunFlavoured
      GunFlavoured
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.10.2008 Posts: 626
      Is this line ok here keeping in mind the tight ranges for Rush players (I didn't have stats at the time). I put villian on maybe JJ+, AK unless he was light 3-betting which
      is unlikely since I was UTG. His bet size seemed to indicate a bit of weakness maybe? Anyway, my plan was to bet/fold the turn since anything better would reraise or call for pot control. Is line ok? I probably would have played a bit different if villian bet more on the flop. Thoughts?

      $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Holdem
      9 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      Stacks:
      Hero ($75.95)
      UTG+1 ($181.25)
      MP1 ($51.75)
      MP2 ($76.35)
      MP3 ($114.40)
      CO ($103.75)
      BTN ($88.90)
      SB ($62.35)
      BB ($51.15)

      Pre-Flop: ($0.75, 9 players) Hero is UTG J:spade: J:heart:
      Hero raises to $1.75, 3 folds, MP3 raises to $5.50, CO calls $5.50, 3 folds, Hero calls $3.75

      Flop: 10:club: 5:diamond: 7:spade: ($17.25, 3 players)
      Hero checks, MP3 bets $8.50, CO folds, Hero calls $8.50

      Turn: 3:diamond: ($34.25, 2 players)
      Hero bets $17.25, MP3 folds

      Final Pot: $51.50
  • 6 replies
    • Gabinr1
      Gabinr1
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.04.2009 Posts: 7,755
      put villian on maybe JJ+, AK unless he was light 3-betting which is unlikely since I was UTG.
      If you put villain on this range why do you still call the 3bet? You are almost always behind and you have to play out of position.


      Postflop:

      What do you expect to achieve with a donk bet on the Turn? If he calls your bet, what do you do on the river?
    • GunFlavoured
      GunFlavoured
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.10.2008 Posts: 626
      Originally posted by Gabinr1
      put villian on maybe JJ+, AK unless he was light 3-betting which is unlikely since I was UTG.
      If you put villain on this range why do you still call the 3bet? You are almost always behind and you have to play out of position.


      Postflop:

      What do you expect to achieve with a donk bet on the Turn? If he calls your bet, what do you do on the river?
      I called preflop since I was getting almost 4:1 + decent implied odds if I do hit a J. I chose bet/fold postflop since my hand could be ahead but I don't want to be bluffed off it by AK. If villian calls or reraises I'm beat but if I check/call I'm faced with a tough decision on the river not knowing where I stand. Maybe the range I put him on was too tight? Also, I think check/folding this flop (or turn) is too weak.
    • Gabinr1
      Gabinr1
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.04.2009 Posts: 7,755
      O, I didn't see that there was another cold caller. I would also call preflop. Your implieds are bigger. It's hard to stack a good player out of position when you have a set and he has overpair. In a 3 way hand, the pot will be bigger so the pot will get full fast, so it's good. Also you might have the luxury to get set over set against the cold caller.

      Also you are deep, didn't see this either :f_p: (I must pay more attention to the the details from the start).



      Let's see this from an mathematical point of view, you have to pay $3,75 to see the flop. You hope to spike a set. If you do you have to get at least 1/10 postflop to be +EV on the long term, so you have to win at least $32 more (because the pot already has +$5.5 from CO). If you think you can achieve that than it's profitable.

      The minus is that you're out of position and your hand strength it's revealed if you c/r F or donk Turn.


      If you get the set and MP3 has KK,AA than we can speculate that he will bet 2/3 of the pot, around $13. If CO calls you need only 6 more dollars (13+13+6=32)to make profit long term. That will be easy, 6 dollars are bound to enter the pot in next streets.

      What happens if CO doesn't call? You will have to get $19 more. Now it depends on the board.

      If it's draw heavy, you can just call the Flop and check again if the draws don't hit on the turn, he will absolutely bet again to protect. If the draw hits... I don't really know what to do, to a donk he will probably fold, to a check he will probably check behind, that a risk you must take if your going with this line. But if the Flop is draw heavy, than a C/R would not look so bad on the Flop.

      If it's a dry board, a check raise will surely scare the opponent. A check/call seems ok, but what next...?

      It's hard to get the value you want out of position.



      PS: I write all this for me as well as for the author. Verbalizing my knowledge. And also learning new stuff.

      I hate playing out of position so I'm always in search for new ways of getting better at it.
    • Gabinr1
      Gabinr1
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.04.2009 Posts: 7,755
      Didn't take in consideration the size of the pot on the turn in the last situation where the CO folds and the board is dry. 17+26=43, a donk on the Turn of $19 seems ok, but the best lines IMO are C/R or C/C. Seems you get the value either way. If he checks back Turn, than you have an easy donk that he will most probably call and you get your value :s_biggrin:
    • GunFlavoured
      GunFlavoured
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.10.2008 Posts: 626
      I agree that it is always going to be hard OOP but I still think it would be easy enough to get a reasonable amount of value out of an over pair. From my experience most players will go into check/call mode if their flop cbet is called and most will find it tough to fold the turn or river so I don't think that is an issue. I'm more interested the donk bet on the turn. Let's assume that villian has AK, QQ+ (probably a wrong assumption). Therefore there are 6x AA, 6x KK and 6xKK and 16x AK combinations available. Assume villian will fold AK and call with other over pairs, villian will fold 15/34 (44%) combinations (might not fold AK ). If I bet 1/2 pot on the turn I think this is +EV if he is folding at least 33% of the time, not taking into account if he calls and I hit a J on the river. Let me know if I'm looking at this right. Not 100% sure about using 16x AK combinations etc.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I think you can also lead out on the flop postflop or c/r and play for stacks
      c/c is also reasonable. I´d prefer c/rai on the turn than leading out.