[NL2-NL10] Instructional sample hands #9

  • Poll
    • What is the correct move here and why?

      • 25
      • 23
      • 4
        leave the table
      Total: 52 Votes
    • Puschkin81
      Joined: 14.04.2006 Posts: 4,786
      You know these situations:

      We have a pocket pair and an overcard appears on the board. How to handle this situation? How to react if our opponent pushes all-in after we made our continuation bet? Today's topic is how we have to react according to the stats.

      Hero: $40
      Villain: $200 (VPIP: 20 % PFR: 7% AF: 3,0 WTS: 30)

      Preflop: Hero is dealt J J (9 Players)
      3 folds, Hero raises to $8.00, 2 folds, BU calls $7.00, 2 folds

      Flop: ($18) Q 2 4 (2 Players)
      Hero bets $12.00, BU bets $200.00 (Allin), Hero ???
  • 8 replies
    • eindude23
      Joined: 02.08.2007 Posts: 4
      i put in half of my stack so BU might think i would call anyway so he raises me all in. to handle this situation best it would be best to know how BU recently played and if he had any bad beats so he could be on a tilt. i think his handrange, without any pieces of information of his recent play, is: a set or an overpair. if he were on a tilt his handrange also includes: lower pocket pair or a flushdraw

      i would fold because i dont want to loose the other half of my stack and i am a big underdog against his handrange(if he is not on a tilt;) )
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      If AF is 3,0 then it means that he raises with his draws? and his WTS is 30- that means that he would win 30%? According to these stats I have to call, because he could do then with a draw or smaller pocket pairs.
    • ciRith
      Joined: 25.03.2005 Posts: 18,556
      I call. He is pretty aggressive with 3,0 af.
    • Taswell
      Joined: 01.08.2007 Posts: 81
      With those STATS, he is an aggressive calling station ! I would call his all in !
    • Kknight
      Joined: 30.04.2007 Posts: 374
      I voted "Leave the table"...because someone had to :D
    • Kknight
      Joined: 30.04.2007 Posts: 374
      Seriously though, I'd probably call since that ridiculous overbet seems designed to psychologically scare me away. Maybe he's got A :club: K :club: ? Although if that were the case I'd have expected him to re-raise preflop. Maybe A :club: T :club: ?
    • Berliner1982
      Joined: 12.07.2006 Posts: 5,644
      With that Player my equity should be better then 25% here, so I can call. Otherwise I fold. Its a close decision here without any more reads on this player.
    • Puschkin81
      Joined: 14.04.2006 Posts: 4,786
      It was a close decision in our voting. The correct answer is: call

      We make a continuation bet but villain pushes all-in. According to the strategy we would have to fold here. But let's have a look at the stats.

      VPIP: 20 %
      PFR: 7%
      AF: 3,0
      WTS: 30

      Of course we have to ask ourselves what kind of range villain would push all-in with? How much equity do we need to call profitably?

      Since Villain is very aggressive he will play some pocket pairs this way and hope we just have AK or AJ. Also hands like AQ or KQ are in his range. In addition he might push flush draws.

      Villian's range is:

      TT-99, AQ, KQ, 76s-JTs (of clubs)

      Against this range we have an equity of:
      41 %.

      Now we calculate the pot odds:

      amount we have to call: 20 $
      Pot: 62 $

      ==> Odds: ~ 1 : 3

      That means we only need 25% equity. We call.