[NL2-NL10] nl10 FR TT

    • Escobario
      Joined: 17.01.2009 Posts: 183
      ok was going through a losing session from the other day (whre i tilted away a LARGE portion of my bankroll, lolz) when i found this hand, was really the only hand im not really sure what i should have done

      have 600 hands on the villian, a multitable reg at the limit, seen him around a fair amount, often joins people starting up tables and i assume hes one of the better players at the limit PTR has him as a 2-3bb/100 hand winner over many, many hands

      his stats over 600 hands are , VPIP 11, PFR 8, 4.2% 3bet, aggr factor 2, fold to cbet 57%

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      SB ($9.90)
      BB ($8.78)
      UTG ($4.99)
      Hero ($10)
      UTG+2 ($10.72)
      MP1 ($10)
      CO ($11.11)
      BTN ($10.41)

      Dealt to Hero T:spade: T:heart:

      fold, Hero raises to $0.40, fold, fold, fold, BTN calls $0.40, fold, fold

      FLOP ($0.95) J:diamond: K:diamond: J:spade:

      Hero bets $0.60, BTN calls $0.60

      TURN ($2.15) J:diamond: K:diamond: J:spade: Q:heart:

      Hero checks, BTN bets $1.55, Hero calls $1.55

      RIVER ($5.25) J:diamond: K:diamond: J:spade: Q:heart: 3:club:

      Hero checks, BTN bets $3, Hero folds

      BTN wins $5

      now obv i didnt think too deeply about it at the time (i was 16tabling on tilt after all), but his 3bet% leads me to assume he 3bets AA KK AK QQ probably 100% of the time. furthermore, his fold to cbet % leads me to believe hes calling one street at least IP on dry boards with pocket pairs. i wouldnt consider this a dry board, but it seems a fairly good board to float on in retrospect. Also, he prob has 600hands worth of stats on me, and during this time iv likely tightened up my cbetting range alot, so to him my cbet stats probably read between 85-95%

      picking up the OESD on the turn i didnt wanna get raised and have to fold the straightdraw, so i check called thinking i was behind, then folded the river. the more i look at it the more i think i should have called the river bet as well, if not just 2ndbarrel/folding the turn given his likely holdings.

      im guessing his range here is anything from 22-99 (i dont think hes cold calling against a lone UTG raiser without a pocketpair) and hes just trying to pick up the pot on the turn, then bluffing the river when i check again showing alot of weakness. however, theres also the possibilty hes sitting there with JJ quads, although i assume he would bet smaller on the turn giving me better odds to chase a straight or flush with quads, given that, the river should probably be a call

      any thoughts on the way this played out and that the villian is a fairly solid (compared to others) winning player at the micros?
  • 1 reply
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510

      Winning or not, a nit is a nit is a nit :p I doubt a 11/8/2 with 4.2% 3bet is floating you on KJJ 2t BUvsUTG without some kind of equity. I just wouldn't mess with the guy in that spot so I'd likely check/fold the turn barring a read that he's just indiscriminately calling on the BU with anything and floating flops in position. Our hand looks ok but it's not really unless he shows up with pure air.

      Hope it helps.