[NL2-NL10] NL25 - AJ Miss on a Monotone Board

    • Kknight
      Kknight
      Global
      Joined: 30.04.2007 Posts: 374
      No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed)

      UTG+1 ($33.75)
      MP1 ($22.90)
      MP2 ($7.50)
      MP3 ($7.30)
      CO ($19.25)
      Button ($26.90)
      SB ($25.45)
      Hero ($5.05)
      UTG ($12.45)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with A:spade: , J:diamond: .
      [color:#666666]5 folds[/color], CO calls $0.25, [color:#666666]1 fold[/color], SB completes, [color:#CC3333]Hero raises to $1.75[/color], CO calls $1.50, SB folds.

      Flop: ($3.75) 8:club: , K:club: , 3:club: [color:#0000FF](2 players)[/color]
      [color:#CC3333]Hero bets $3.3 (All-In)[/color], CO folds.

      Final Pot: $3.75

      OOP on a scary board. I'm torn here. The only way I'm going to win this pot is with a c-bet, but isn't this a case of I'm only going to get called if I'm beaten??? I guess someone may call with a flush draw, but I don't know. On the other hand, it also seems a waste to check/fold and give away the pot.

      Thanks,
      Kknight

      P.S. - I've now had 2 or 3 profitable days/sessions in a row...thinks are starting to look up! :D Yay!!!
  • 8 replies
    • Berliner1982
      Berliner1982
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.07.2006 Posts: 5,644
      The Ace of club and any Flushdraw with a made Hand will call you here. And of course 2 Pair and a Set. And you only have Ace high. But you show no fear against this board. Still I guess I would give up the hand here.

      With any club in my hand I would push, but not without. But I like to hear other thoughts.
    • Kknight
      Kknight
      Global
      Joined: 30.04.2007 Posts: 374
      OK, I thought that might be the case and that of course is why I asked...but another question:

      Isn't part of the reason that we raise a bit more from the blinds (I raised an extra BB here since I'm OOP) to make it easier to push any flop? Is it too weak here to give up heads up with this big of a pot (bigger than my stack?)

      Some further thoughts:

      - Two pair doesn't seem likely here. If he is a fish that called with K8, K3, or 83, then he just got ridiculously lucky.
      - 33 or 88 is of course possible. I think most other pocket pairs will fold here (unless maybe one of the cards is a club.) JJ+ would've re-raised me before the flop I'd think.
      - If he has A :club: and a fourth club doesn't come, I may have him out-kicked since AK and possibly AQ would've re-raise me preflop. If he already has a made flush, I'm a goner...but we can't give up every time the board is 3-flush, can we? Would we check/fold AA here?

      So how often do I have to win for the c-bet to be +EV? Less than 50%, right? Do you think I'm beat more than 50% of the time? If you add in fold equity (especially for other pocket pairs that are ahead but don't know it,) doesn't that make this a +EV move?

      Of course the flip-side to all of this is that we are OOP, which makes it difficult. If we are in position in this same situation and they check to us do we c-bet?

      I'm not arguing your answer, I'm just trying to learn and understand ;)

      Thanks,
      Kknight
    • Puschkin81
      Puschkin81
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.04.2006 Posts: 4,786
      Hi Kknight!

      I think the all-in is ok here because you are indeed representing AA, KK or AK which aren't very unlikely holdings for a short stack like you. Even a flush draw would make a mistake to call here because you don't give the odds to call. That means only a flush or another K might call you. Nice hand!

      Good luck at the tables!
      Puschkin81
    • Berliner1982
      Berliner1982
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.07.2006 Posts: 5,644
      Looks like that I sometimes chicken out on boards like these. ;) But Puschkin I think its close and folding isn´t that big mistake either.
    • Kknight
      Kknight
      Global
      Joined: 30.04.2007 Posts: 374
      Boy, I pick some tough ones sometimes, don't I? ;)

      Thanks for the input from both of you. It seems that it is close enough that either option is a reasonable one.

      Thanks again,
      Kknight
    • Berliner1982
      Berliner1982
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.07.2006 Posts: 5,644
      Originally posted by Kknight
      Boy, I pick some tough ones sometimes, don't I? ;)
      Yeah you keep me busy sometimes, when I evaluate your hands, since I need a few minutes to just think about it. :D Keep that up , please.
    • Kknight
      Kknight
      Global
      Joined: 30.04.2007 Posts: 374
      :D Keep that up , please.


      I'll do my best :D
    • Kknight
      Kknight
      Global
      Joined: 30.04.2007 Posts: 374
      Oh and BTW Berliner, you have mail ;)