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[NL20-NL50] NL50 A9s odds play

    • Gabinr1
      Joined: 05.04.2009 Posts: 7,755
      $0.25/$0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)

      Known players:
      MP2 (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A, 9.
      3 folds, Hero raises to $2.00, 3 folds, SB calls $1.75, BB folds.

      Flop: ($4.5) 6, 8, 7 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $3.00, SB raises to $11.25, Hero calls $8.25.

      Turn: ($27) 3 (2 players)
      SB bets $25.50, Hero calls $25.50.

      River: ($78) 7 (2 players)
      SB bets $72.70(All-In), Hero folds, SB gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $78.

      Villain is a rock.

      10/7/3.4 (VP$IP/PFR/3bet)
      2.8/50/1.2k (AF/ FTCBET/ Hands)
      25/60 (WTS/W$SD)

      I want to know if I played this hand +EV accordingly to the odds and implieds.

      So I'm deepstacked HU with a rock. He raises my cbet, that must definitely be a set, overpair or made straight. I don't think he has a made straight and with AA,KK,QQ he would have probably raised preflop, so we exclude that.

      Should I 3bet preflop and play my draw aggressively? This is not good against a set, we have 39% equity on the Flop, IMO, only if we have Fold Equity this would be good, something we probably don't because the Rock probably puts us on overpair and would not lay down the set or made hand.

      On the turn I call 1/2 because of the implieds, I'm sure I can get much more out of villain if I hit the River being IP and everything.
  • 3 replies