Defending against implied odds

    • Bezeal
      Bezeal
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.03.2010 Posts: 26
      I will start by posting a hand as an example:

      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.01/$0.02 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)

      Known players:
      MP1 (Hero):
      $2.00
      MP2:
      $4.73
      MP3:
      $3.05
      CO:
      $2.00
      BU:
      $1.00
      SB:
      $1.61
      BB:
      $3.55
      UTG2:
      $2.53


      Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A, A.
      CO posts deadblind, UTG2 folds, Hero raises to $0.10, 4 folds, SB calls $0.09, BB folds.

      Flop: ($0.24) T, A, 4 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.18, SB calls $0.18.

      Turn: ($0.6) 3 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.50, SB calls $0.50.

      River: ($1.6) 9 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $1.22(All-In), SB calls $0.83.

      Final Pot: $3.65.

      The topic i want to discuss is the other side of the coin, considering odds and outs. We learn in the articles about calculating outs and odds, but what to do, when you are the one suspecting your opponent to have a draw (and yourself holding a big hand)?

      In the example hand i hit top set on the flop, and the only apparent draw being the flush draw (the small straight draw is unlikely IMO). So i want to both bet for value and protection. Therefore i bet 3/4 of the pot, only giving my opponent about 2,3 pot odds which isn't good enough for a flush draw.

      But then the spade comes on the turn. What do you do now? If i bet, villains call on the flop is correct because he then had enough implied odds calling the flop. But if i don't bet, i can't protect against a hand with only a single spade.

      So my question is this:
      What do you do when you bet for protection (giving bad odds to drawing hands), but the scare card falls on the turn?
      Do you continue betting or stop? If you continue betting, you could pay of the drawing villain, thereby making his call on the flop correct giving the implied odds.
      But then again if you stop betting, you could give a free card to a worse drawing hand, that suddenly have a new chance to hit (a hand you would have prefered protecting against drawing).

      (On a side note, villain in the example had J2 of spades so he drew out on me, but thats not the point of my topic).
  • 2 replies
    • GunFlavoured
      GunFlavoured
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.10.2008 Posts: 626
      You are thinking about this the wrong way. Remember that a protection bet is a value bet after all so really you want draws to call you with incorrect odds. If they can justify their call with implied odds then that's not your fault. Keep in mind he is not always on a draw here, you're playing against a range of hands. Just because your opponent made a correct call doesn't mean you made a bad bet. One example is if you bet with second set against top set, it could be correct for both you and villian to get your money in even though you're almost drawing dead. Also nice hand, well played.
    • roswellx
      roswellx
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.12.2008 Posts: 599
      Well played... As GunFlavoured said, he won't have a draw always there. He can have AT+ and any two pair, lower sets etc...So your bet on the turn is for value. The number of weaker hand combinations are much higher than the number of made hand combinations. So you charge them by betting. Results are irrelevant... See Range Merging about this topic. Google Range merging and start reading :)