[NL2-NL10] AK NL25 4waypot (part 1)

    • pablomeza
      pablomeza
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.08.2009 Posts: 508
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.1/$0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (7 handed)

      Known players:
      MP1:
      $16.36
      MP2:
      $26.20
      MP3 (Hero):
      $5.90
      CO:
      $14.15
      BU:
      $11.45
      SB:
      $7.64
      BB:
      $5.00


      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K, A.
      MP1 calls $0.25, MP2 calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.50, 2 folds, SB calls $1.40, BB folds, MP1 calls $1.25, MP2 calls $1.25.

      Flop: ($6.25) 4, Q, J (4 players)
      SB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets $0.75, Hero...?

      Almost 1:10 odds to call on the flop, with 5 clean outs (3T's and 2K's non clubs) and a possible 7 if villain isn't holding a flushdraw, and sometimes even the A's help? No stats available whatsoever but given the preflop limp + call usually means FISH :D .

      If I call I am playing in position and can evaluate the situation afterwards. If K :club: or A :club: hit and villain bets again then I fold (unless something retarded like the Flop bet), if villain checks I check behind and try to see a cheap showdown by calling/check behind the River. If any of my non :club: outs hit I go broke with TPTK?
  • 3 replies
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Let's keep it simple:
      AQ,AJ,KQ,KJ,KT are common holdings of Villain. They block one live card of yours. Adding a possible flushdraw in one of the 3 opponents and you solely have like 3 outs (The Ten for your gutshot)

      Even then you are not done since people can outdraw you

      Even though you get 10:1, mucking is better because the 2 players still have to act to you. If you were to close the action then it depends on the player stats

      Good luck!

      - Gerv
    • pablomeza
      pablomeza
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.08.2009 Posts: 508
      Thanks Gerv for the prompt review.

      I got a completely different one than the one you told me on the spanish pokerstrategy section, could I get your opinion on it?

      "by silv3erd4v3:

      I prefer directly the allin here. our stack is 4.40 and if you push you have a ratio higher than 2:1 from flop to river so you could go all in if you had 8 outs or more. Your outs are not clean that is true and you probably have to discount alot of them but 2 players checking without showing any strength in such a board and one of them making a 'blocking' bet smells to me like in the worst case you're up against KJ or AJ or a weak Q (AQ raises preflop). Pushing gives you some fold equity against some of those and if he's drawing he doesn't get to do it for free.

      Calling isn't a bad idea, you get the odds but I always prefer to isolate myself against one rather than stay against 3, because it implies a TPTK might not be strong enough. That's the issue of multiway pots.

      The push isolates you against a hand I doubt is very good and a push here would require you to need something like:

      - 6.25+4.40 / 4.40 = 2.45
      - Minimum equity necessary = 100/1+2.45 = 29%.

      If you put in a range of AK vs 44,AJ,KJ,QJ,KQ in the equilator which would be the worst case scenario, you get 24% and you'd only be missing 5%. That 5% you could get from the fold equity against Jx's, but if you add draws you get more than the 29% you need so I always push here."

      It does seem like a good choice and I did consider that pushing would really only isolate me against the best range. but apparently even then you have enough odds to call given the FE you generate.

      I definately do think his range includes draws no? That bet is just so weak and could mean anything.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Hello Pablo,


      Sorry for the delay ; World Championships are live but are ofc no excuse
      Your outs are not clean that is true and you probably have to discount alot of them but 2 players checking without showing any strength in such a board and one of them making a 'blocking' bet smells to me like in the worst case you're up against KJ or AJ or a weak Q (AQ raises preflop)
      Bad and Good players are ''automatically'' checking to the preflop aggressor. This doesn't imply any signal of strength because of the relative position they have.
      The whole checking to PFA has good and bad merits but for now I disagree about that ''checking to PFA is equal to weakenss postflop''


      Pushing gives you some fold equity against some of those and if he's drawing he doesn't get to do it for free.
      Depending on your equity (ranging from 16% to 24%) you need 31.8% FEQ with 16% EQ towards 26%

      Estimating FEQ with 2 checkers and 1 leader is not rocket science though we know Total FEQ = [FEQ player 1] * [FEQ player 2] * [FEQ player 3]
      For example:
      All Players have 75% FEQ = 42.1% Total FEQ
      All players have 65% FEQ = 27.4 total FEQ
      But some players have nearly >90% whilst others have <40% because of their handranges


      Calling isn't a bad idea, you get the odds but I always prefer to isolate myself against one rather than stay against 3, because it implies a TPTK might not be strong enough. That's the issue of multiway pots.
      I agree with this


      The minimum equity calculation is wrong and should be 38.5%
      7 to win 4
      3.5 to win 2 => sounds like 3/2 => 1.5 => [1.5+1]^-1 => 100/2.5 = 40% roughly


      Mind you that as soon as your shove fails to isolate 1 player, your equity is around 15% at best

      Final summation: I still like folding more than calling. Shoving it in without closing the action + without any information about the checkers can in theory be a bit +EV but the range is between -8bb per hand towards +0.5bb if you run simulations and numbers

      Best regards,
      Gerv