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[NL2-NL10] NL10 22 flops set OOP on rainbow

    • Genkidesuka
      Joined: 10.11.2009 Posts: 104
      Hand converted with online hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)

      Known players:
      BB (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is BB with 2, 2.
      UTG2 raises to $0.40, 6 folds, Hero calls $0.30.

      Flop: ($0.85) 8, 2, 6 (2 players)
      Hero checks, UTG2 bets $0.60, Hero calls $0.60.

      Turn: ($2.05) 5 (2 players)
      Hero checks, UTG2 bets $1.30, Hero raises to $4.20, UTG2 folds, Hero gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $3.35.

      Villain was a 6/6 nit over 140 hands. My thinking was his range was (JJ)QQ+ AK+, so:

      1) If he has QQ+ he's stacking off on the turn
      2) If he has AK he's not third barrelling river

      My line screams set though. Should I just wait for the river to check raise? Does villain fold an overpair in that spot? Seems to be 3rd street value vs what villain wants to pay to make sure I have the set
  • 2 replies
    • captainmono
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 6
      You could lead out half the pot on flop and then pot size bet on turn.
      But he is a nit, so I would c/c flop and bet turn.
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510

      Depends on the nit :p For sure some will fold an overpair, while others are just generally bored because they never play a hand and have a hard time letting go of a premium pair regardless of how strong your line looks. I'll usually just check/raise the flop so that I'm able to represent (semi-)bluffs better, which just means my line looks overall weaker. It's likely he did fold an overpair since I don't really expect him to fire the turn with air too often, either that or a turned flushdraw maybe.

      As played I'd either check/raise the turn or check/call it and donk out on the river, the board is kinda connected and nits usually pussy out of valuebets way too often for us to take the chance in my opinion. Leading out on the turn is fine as well, you can then bet the river as well and make sure villain has to call two bets with overpairs.

      Hope it helps.