[NL20-NL50] NL£20 Monster draw vs massively overbetting maniac

    • nibbana
      nibbana
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.12.2009 Posts: 1,186
      The game is a wild home game. Villain is drunk and making some strange plays and is well known to not understand the game fully. Standard for the last hour has been limp - limp - limp Villain bets 20BB's OR limped pre, flop - check - check - Villain bets 25BB's. He's shown some air hands but mostly trips/two pair/overpair hands with these bets on the flop.

      Home Game No-Limit Hold'em, £0.10/0.20 Blinds (3 handed)

      BU (~£50.00)
      SB - Hero (~£50.00)
      BB (£25.00)


      Preflop: Hero is SB with A, 7
      [color:#666666]1 fold,[/color] Hero calls £0.10, BB Checks

      Flop: (£0.40) 5, 8, 6 [color:#009B00](2 players)[/color]
      Hero Checks, [color:#CC3333]BB bets £6.00[/color], Hero ??

      My 1st question is... Is the best play always to shove here ?

      and if... Hero Checks, [color:#CC3333]BB bets £6.00[/color], Hero Calls
      Turn: (£12.40) J [color:#009B00](2 players)[/color]
      Hero Checks, [color:#CC3333]BB bets £18.80 (All-in)[/color], Hero ??

      Pot offers 31.2/18.8 meaning I need 37.6% equity for the call to be BE. (Is this correct!?)

      Given that he's raising all Pairs, Aces,K8+,Q8+,J8+,T9 preflop I believe his range for 2nd barreling here is Jx, 8x, 2pair hands and straights

      The range of genuine hands for Stove looks like
      J7s-J2s,T8s,97s+,82s+,J7o-J2o,T8o,97o+,82o+
      for 35.6% equity and a fold.

      But I can't work out how to factor in his bluffs into this accurately, any help would be really welcome.
  • 3 replies
    • DecMate
      DecMate
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.01.2009 Posts: 939
      for a start raise preflop. You should be shipping this over his raise, as you said he's a maniac so he could even be doing this with a 7. You still have fold equity, and if you are called it's never that bad.
    • nibbana
      nibbana
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.12.2009 Posts: 1,186
      Originally posted by DecMate
      for a start raise preflop. You should be shipping this over his raise, as you said he's a maniac so he could even be doing this with a 7. You still have fold equity, and if you are called it's never that bad.
      The reason for calling preflop is that he's much more likely to make his standard £4 or £5 bet preflop with his weak hands if I do, in which case I'm not averse to shoving for £25 as he's folded to this play a few times to a different player. As for the fold equity post flop, I'm not so sure any exists, in a hand earlier in the night the following happened

      Home Game No-Limit Hold'em, £0.10/0.20 Blinds (4 handed)

      UTG (£50.00)
      BU - Hero (~£45.00)
      SB - (~£15.00)
      BB (~£60.00)


      Preflop: Hero is BU with T, T
      UTG calls £0.20, [color:#CC3333]Hero raises £1.20[/color], [color:#666666]1 fold,[/color] BB Calls, [color:#666666]1 fold[/color]

      Flop: (£2.70) 8, A, A [color:#009B00](2 players)[/color]
      [color:#CC3333]BB bets £6.00[/color], [color:#CC3333]Hero raises ~£44.00[/color], BB Calls

      BB Shows J, 2

      So I'm not sure fold equity comes into it. But I still see that it's pretty obvious I should be shoving the A7 on the flop regardless as there are some hands that he'll call with that I'm ahead of already without making my draws.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      since you can´t fold and your A high might be good, you can´t fold turn
      I would likely just shove on the flop