EV, is being above/below overrated or misunderstood?

    • alenstrat
      alenstrat
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      Joined: 13.03.2009 Posts: 821
      Just was thinking about EV today, since I'm having my first big under EV swing the last week or so (like $50 below EV on NL5 which is a lot for one week). I also just dloaded pokertracker which gives me so many more stats then elephant and these made me think of some things.

      Shouldn't a normal player be naturally over EV? I'm probably not inventing anything, but this logic came into my mind thinking about it today. For example, on AA I have 91% win rate according to pokertracker. This means I'm over EV doesn't it? But wouldn't you naturally have a higher win rate then EV when you reach showdown mostly when you're ahead and fold before showdown when behind (like a good player should/would)? And so forth with all hands, thus creating a natural positive gap between EV and actual winnings for a winning player? For example when I first saw my EV graph on pokertracker, and saw I had been above EV in NL2 I was like, what the hell, does this mean I was just lucky and didn't play well? And lol, I was pretty sure I wasn't a very lucky player. And just now in NL5 the two lines crossed sickly, two totally opposite sloping lines.

      And on the other hand, if you are under EV, it just might mean that you haven't been folding hands that are preflop +EV enough when behind before the showdown. If the money was always in preflop and your aces are getting 60% win rate, then yes of course I'd believe you that you are having bad luck. But I think many of the -EV calamities people post on the forum might be just them veering off ideal play for that period of time and taking hands to showdown when they're beat? (not excluding me from here) If the logic above is a correct, a bad or losing player should be naturally under EV too, or it could also be a good player that veered off ideal play/unplugged some leaks for whatever reason.

      I'm not sure what conclusion to come about bad beats, since getting a streak of turn/river bad beats when 90%+ ahead on the flop, doesn't show so directly, ie you'd need to have a "post flop" EV to really gauge the effect of these on a downswing.

      I guess the conclusion would be, if my logic is correct of course, that running under EV should also be a situation you examine carefully instead of taking it as an unjust disaster that happened to you.

      I did read the article on how EV is calculated, can't really relate the math to all this theoretical situation I'm proposing though.
  • 10 replies
    • degre
      degre
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      Joined: 30.04.2009 Posts: 413
      Personally I've stopped buggering myself with EV the past year. Pretty much every player here in the long run will stay under EV, it just happens when you play ABC poker as you try to go in with the best hands and you will get suckouts. You might have a period in the short run where you're above, but in the long run...

      As you learn the game you'll play less the cards and focus more on the players, there EV will just loose any meaning.
    • bradomurder
      bradomurder
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      Joined: 17.10.2008 Posts: 1,329
      Originally posted by degre
      Personally I've stopped buggering myself with EV the past year. Pretty much every player here in the long run will stay under EV, it just happens when you play ABC poker as you try to go in with the best hands and you will get suckouts. You might have a period in the short run where you're above, but in the long run...

      As you learn the game you'll play less the cards and focus more on the players, there EV will just loose any meaning.
      What????

      No! in the long run every player will aproach EV. It stands for expected value, the value to be expected
    • degre
      degre
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      Joined: 30.04.2009 Posts: 413
      I'm talking about my experience and, so far, most of the graph I've seen on this site of long runs are running below EV.
    • alenstrat
      alenstrat
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      Joined: 13.03.2009 Posts: 821
      If I'm correct, at least on pokertracker the EV we're talking about is "allin EV" which compares how much two hands were expected to win preflop, but it doesn't take into account action after the flop? So how can it be a reliable stat when post flop situation are so important?
    • pondlife78
      pondlife78
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      Joined: 14.02.2009 Posts: 24
      You are not correct =) . All-in EV is the EV at the point you go all-in. It includes the flop and turn cards and is your percentage of winning multiplied by how much you will gain if you win minus the the opposite.
      If you have AJ and hit 4 of a kind jacks then on the turn get the rest of your money in against someone with AA your EV is based on your 100% chance of winning. It is not 20% of what you will win as that statistic would be truly useless ( although all-in EV isn't massively useful over time anyway as the whole point is that it should even out)
      Hope that makes it clearer
    • fusionpk
      fusionpk
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      Joined: 21.01.2010 Posts: 1,683
      Originally posted by pondlife78
      You are not correct =) . All-in EV is the EV at the point you go all-in. It includes the flop and turn cards and is your percentage of winning multiplied by how much you will gain if you win minus the the opposite.
      If you have AJ and hit 4 of a kind jacks then on the turn get the rest of your money in against someone with AA your EV is based on your 100% chance of winning. It is not 20% of what you will win as that statistic would be truly useless ( although all-in EV isn't massively useful over time anyway as the whole point is that it should even out)
      Hope that makes it clearer
      This ^^

      For example if you have an overpair and someone moves in and has a smaller overpair, they have about 4% equity (assuming no draws), to hit there set, if they hit this 2 outer you will drop under EV. However, they are expected to hit this 4% of the time, so in the long run this *should* average out.
    • Anraxas
      Anraxas
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      Joined: 21.03.2010 Posts: 989
      I have been thinking about this allot latelya and I think you will go under EV in the long run because of they way you play.

      If you play bss:
      You'll probably only be all-in by the time you hit the river, meaning that every hand you play will be right on the EV line, because nothing can change anymore as there are no more cards to come on the table.
      When will there be a diffrence between the EV and your actually winnings? when you go all-in preflop/flop/turn. Now this normally only happens when you have monster hands.
      Lets say you have pocket Aces, if you go preflop all-in and you win then you'll stay on the EV line. if you go preflop all-in and lose, you'll go under the line.

      The only way to go above the EV is to suckout. But because we play tight agressive, we'll have far less suckouts then other players have when playing.
      example: yesterday a guy broke my pocket K's with 86os. no way that anyone here would call a potsized raise (preflop) with 86os. thus eliminating a chance for you to suckout... (btw this hand was right on the EV line because when we got all-in on the flop he had hit his double pair, so he had the best hand)

      in short (i could go on but I think my opinion is clear)
      yes we'll suck out sometimes, but when we go all-in we'll have the best hand most of the time. thus giving us much more chance to go below EV then above it.
    • Fladdermouse
      Fladdermouse
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      Joined: 31.01.2009 Posts: 2,867
      Originally posted by Anraxas
      Lets say you have pocket Aces, if you go preflop all-in and you win then you'll stay on the EV line. if you go preflop all-in and lose, you'll go under the line.
      This is your mistake, when you win a preflop all-in with pocket aces, you will be above your EV-line, because you only have like 80% against another pocket pair.

      8 out of 10 times you should be a little bit above EV and 2 times your winnings will be a lot below EV. In the long run your winnings will be close to your EV line.
    • Anraxas
      Anraxas
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      Joined: 21.03.2010 Posts: 989
      Originally posted by Fladdermouse
      Originally posted by Anraxas
      Lets say you have pocket Aces, if you go preflop all-in and you win then you'll stay on the EV line. if you go preflop all-in and lose, you'll go under the line.
      This is your mistake, when you win a preflop all-in with pocket aces, you will be above your EV-line, because you only have like 80% against another pocket pair.

      8 out of 10 times you should be a little bit above EV and 2 times your winnings will be a lot below EV. In the long run your winnings will be close to your EV line.
      ok that indeed changes things :)
    • MrMardyBum
      MrMardyBum
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      Joined: 14.03.2009 Posts: 2,206
      All this all-in pre-flop stuff with Aces is wrong.

      As someone previously mentioned it's the point you go all-in that matters.

      So if you go all-in pre-flop you will AWAYS have +EV. However if you get called pre-flop and then go all-in on the flop and your opponent has hit a set (for example) then you WILL BE -EV!

      Also, forget EV line on your graph hardly means anything. Just concentrate on reviewing your hands and seeing where you could of saved money. You'll get a lot further.