[NL2-NL10] NL10 99 vs 3bet OOP

    • N0pr3s3n7
      Joined: 14.05.2009 Posts: 1,271
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)

      Known players:
      MP3 (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 9, 9.
      Hero raises to $0.35, CO raises to $1.20, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.85.

      Flop: ($2.55) T, 3, 4 (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $1.70, Hero calls $1.70.

      Turn: ($5.95) 2 (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $3.40, Hero folds, CO gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $5.95.

      Main questions are in bold !!!!

      Villian is: 19/0/16/252 vpip/limp/pfr/hands
      9/50/50/- 3bet/fold to 3bet/four bet/fold to 4bet
      2/42/55/70/50 agf/WTSD/W$SD/Cbet/Fold to cbet

      Villian also 3bets as follows :( 5 handed games)

      CO - 40%(5)
      BU - 0%
      SB - 0%
      BB - 14%(28)

      My questions ISN'T if i played it right or no.I got the following questions:

      Do you think he will commit himself on the turn with AcKc since he has flushdraw , 2 overcards and a gutshot?since i didn't reraise him on the flop to represent any strong hand.

      Actually i tend to make reraises on anyflop that misses J,Q,K,A if i hold any pocket pairs to see if villian goes on or not.But since he will fold : AQ , AK , AJ which are total of 45 combos ( since i assume he might go on with AcKc AcQc AcJc) and TT,JJ,QQ,KK,AA which are 33 combos.Does a raise on the flop makes it profitable as I will 3bet him as follow:

      CO bets 1.70$
      Hero raises 4$

      4$ for a pot of 4.25$ which is like 1:1.06 he will have to fold every time ? :f_eek: :f_eek:
      and since it's 45:33 which is 1.37:1 I assume it would not be profitable ?
      But anyway i feel i have the strong reads he got one of the 48 combos(including AcKc , AcQc , AcJc , i also assume he will reraise all in AcTc and won't slowplay it anykind). What would be the best play if he just calls on the flop?Do i shove any non club river below J ?
  • 1 reply
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510

      It's perfectly reasonable for him to c-bet/commit on the turn with what should look to him like 2 overs and a flushdraw up against exactly a hand like you have, some pocket pair that called a bet on the flop to see what happens on the turn and might just go away (even if you don't fold, he has outs and so on).

      Don't check/raise with 99 unless you intend on going broke with it, and you can't go broke with it against people who will always fold their bluffs to you. In that case you're better off blindly calling down, since it's always better to go broke against a range which include bluffs rather than isolating yourself against better hands. 1:1 odds means if he folds as often as he calls, you break-even assuming you always lose when he calls, which is probably true. If he folds you get the pot, if he calls you lose your potsized bet. 50%*pot - 50%*pot = 0 ev.

      Following that if he just calls on the flop in my opinion you're screwed unless he really thinks you're full of shit, I wouldn't put any more money in the pot regardless of the odds, which is why it sucks to check/raise the flop to begin with.

      Hope it helps.