Variance in Omaha

    • pitslz
      Joined: 25.02.2009 Posts: 550
      How much I should expect to be +-EV in PLO... today i had awful day again and went on tilt few times, quite few times went into wrong spot, everybody hit everything and when i hit there is no action... I'm loosing quite a lot when a start 3betting... because I don't flop anything. I've played at full tilt, pokerstars. Now i play in another poker room and again I'm running quite a lot - EV ( -96euro EV: -30euro for 2k hands playing .01/.02 and .02/.04)
      Showdown winnings -55euro mostly from tilt and 3bet pots and cbets in these pots, i just don't hit anything there.
      Please give me some advice or examples :)
  • 4 replies
    • Jackalof
      Joined: 08.06.2008 Posts: 1,462
      Im not sure what your question is but:

      1) Tilt plays a huge role in PLO, imo its more important than in other types of poker because of badbeats you encounter every day in every session. I reccomend reading poker psychology books and articles to understand tilt and cope with it;

      2) Yes, variance is sick, thats why you should only be playing for the long run. It has been told million times before, of course, but still: short-term downswings do not matter as long as you use appropriate BRM, make correct decisions (having correct odds in pots you're involved, identifying correct spots to bluff, etc.) and do not tilt.

      3) The very majority of your 3-bets should happen you being in position. That is very important. This way you can use pot control in case multiway pot develops or flop is unfavorable to your hand but give you some backdoor equity;

      4) Balance your 3-bet range. 3-betting AA** only is very exploitable.

      5) Don't 3-bet pocket pairs (except AA**, premium KK QQ), will make life alot easier since pocket pairs rarely improve to sets and give you hard time on flop.

      6) Good luck at the tables. :f_p:
    • Jim9137
      Joined: 13.11.2007 Posts: 5,608
      I've been running some odd 30-50 buyins under the allin-ev after I started experimenting with aggressive 3-betting. Especially vs. weak players and players who go allin frequently on the flop with random crap holdings (like dry jacks or very gappy rundowns) will increase your variance, since you can never be sure if that flop hit them or not.

      I've been wondering how much you should c-bet in 3bet pots. 60%? 90% in HU pots? It seems a bit spewy to cbet fold to KQT boards with 9865 or something... :f_frown:
    • pitslz
      Joined: 25.02.2009 Posts: 550
      Sick 30 buy-in under EV. I've watched some videos and improved my game a lot, but today i got almost broke, no fish, no cards i didn't hit at all. Maybe i just can't handle the swings here in PLO, because it would be dummy to say that in .05/.1 there is no fish :f_biggrin: , there is ... it's me :f_confused:

      Did mistake to light 3bet OOP but decided that's weak to fold to light 4bet.
      This is the donkiest hand today
      $0.05/$0.10 Pot Limit Omaha Hi
      6 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by

      UTG goodkarma12345 ($2)
      UTG+1 Afrikanabs ($11.32)
      CO knoxo ($10.15)
      BTN UnoPablito ($9.85)
      SB Hero ($9.88)
      BB Pastaki ($8.44)

      Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 6 players) Hero is SB 6:spade: Q:club: K:club: Q:spade:
      2 folds, knoxo raises to $0.35, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.90, Pastaki raises to $1.45, knoxo folds, Hero calls $0.55

      Flop: 5:heart: 2:spade: 7:spade: ($3.10, 2 players)
      Hero bets $3.25, Pastaki calls $3.25

      Turn: 3:diamond: ($9.60, 2 players)
      Hero bets $5.18, Pastaki goes all-in $3.74

      River: A:diamond: ($18.52, 2 players, 1 all-in)

      Final Pot: $18.52
    • Jim9137
      Joined: 13.11.2007 Posts: 5,608
      This is the graph:

      The ever continuing story of the monttu. :f_love: