[NL2-NL10] NL200- Hero Call King High River?

    • qakaripodon
      Joined: 07.10.2009 Posts: 31
      Aright, I open raise KQo from mp2
      co&bu fold, small blind calls (82/0/45 - vp$ip/pfr/wtsd)

      flop = i cbet 1/2potsize cuz he can't have much, board is fairly dry and i can rep AJ,KJ,QJ+overpairs and my image has been fairly tight last recent hands, he calls
      at this point his range is weak Jack, middle pair, and plenty of draws

      turn = comes 7, he checks i check behind because i dont think he'll fold any of the flop range because he is kinda fishy and i pot control

      river = 7 pairs the turn 7 and the board reads 2, J, 6 7 7
      and he tanks a little and pots it ..

      based on the board (TWO flush draw missed, straight draw missed) his flop-turn play and his pot size in the river combined with aggresion stats

      imma be more inclined towards a hero call here..

      so what's my play here?

      No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (7 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

      CO ($314.80)
      Button ($34)
      SB ($131.95)
      BB ($201)
      UTG ($59)
      MP1 ($242)
      Hero (MP2) ($40)

      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K, Q
      2 folds, Hero bets $6, 2 folds, SB calls $5, 1 fold

      Flop: ($14) 2, J, 6 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $7, SB calls $7

      Turn: ($28) 7 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero checks

      River: ($28) 7 (2 players)
      SB bets $28, Hero ???
  • 3 replies
    • Gerv
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678

      preflop is standard if Fish is on blinds
      On the flop you should be more thinking about if you will barrel on a Turn , Ace, Ten besides the K//Q

      This guy plays 82/0 so even thinking about ''repping stuff'' is in my opinion pretty backfiring because this guy is only looking at his own hand.

      Since I dont know the sample size nor fold contibet (I assume you have 100-200ish hands on him seeing AFq 71% of 7 trials) I cannot discuss the Turnplay.
      You said you wanted to Pot control but you have King hi hence little SD value

      What I would do is either cBet/shove this 7 if I know he is going to call me with Flushdraws (=worse) ánd can fold some low PPs

      or I would check back Flop and evaluate the Turn to determine whether betting has some merits on the Turn/River respectively.

      As played he needs to have a non-nut flushdraw 33% of the time betting here. 5 out of 7 times he bet on the River (thats the 71%) so despite the fact that your sample may be a little low and biased (different board textures)
      You can make a call here.

      Best regards,
    • qakaripodon
      Joined: 07.10.2009 Posts: 31
      Hi Gerv again

      as for the barreling i will never barrell a turn ten( if checked ill take the free card) ace( as you said he wont fold anything that called flop) and ill definetly won't barrell a :diamond: ..

      Thanks for the review..by the way I made the call..he showed 5 :club: 3 :club: :f_confused:

      p.s: one more question..do you know how to calculate If I want to know for example *how much success needed%* with a certain play..for example in a 1/2$ game a limper limps..I isoraise to 8$..!?
    • Gerv
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      You risk $8 to win $5 (Blinds+1bb) so you need 61% FEQ (8 divided by [8+5]) to be profitable if you are only aiming for the limper and the rest of the field to be folding