blind v blind mandatory shove? Or mistake?

    • joaks14
      Joined: 14.04.2010 Posts: 1
      This hand came up in the final 2 tables of the CarbonPoker 100k freeroll
      (my apologies for ragged looking recreation, I've yet to find a good hand history converter for Merge)

      8 Handed, final 2 tables -- folded to blinds
      Not many flops had been seen in past few hands, mostly shove / fold as everyone has low M (7/8 players have M<4 )

      Other considerations, this player was new to the table (5 hands, although he could have been watching both tables) I'd been playing tight due to the action / inability to get a hand.

      SB (Hero) -- 223586 chips M=2.2 (effective 1.76)
      BB (Villan) -- 361580 chips M=3.6 (effective 2.88)

      Blinds are 20k / 40k with 5k ante so 100k preflop

      I shove (3h 6c) for an additional 178k
      BB calls (Qh Jd)

      No improvement and I bust in 16th

      My M is extremely low, vs 1 random hand I figure I had enough fold equity to make this profitable, considering I can take almost 2/3 his stack.

      Standard play? Or is my M so low that I should consider showdown value over fold equity?
  • 5 replies
    • rhinoneil
      Joined: 16.04.2008 Posts: 1,159
      I think this is a shove here however as you said villain is new to table so not only has he not seen how tightly you have been playing but you have not seen how he plays.
      IMO his call is very loose, so all in all, wp, ul.
    • alberts1955
      Joined: 13.04.2010 Posts: 251
      actualy hes call isn't that loose.
      if bb is reg winning player, he will know that sb is pushing almost ATC, so usualy hes QJ is ahead of sb range :)
      anyways u push ATC there if every1 is folded to u
    • ihufa
      Joined: 18.03.2008 Posts: 3,323
      nothing is mandatory
    • NightFrostaSS
      Joined: 25.10.2008 Posts: 5,255
      nothing is mistake
    • pzhon
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      The BB's call with QJo is standard without a read that the SB is nitty. The big blind was getting about 5:3, and although I don't know the prize structure and other stacks, I don't think he needs to be particularly risk-averse.

      To gain chips by pushing 63o, you need the BB to call tighter than 69%. (I used SNG Wizard in chip mode.) That's a safe bet, but you do want more folds because you are somewhat risk-averse. I don't think you will get more than 50% calls. If the BB calls 50%, then you gain more than 60% of a big blind by pushing, and I think that's easily enough to make pushind correct despite your risk aversion.

      QJo is well within a 50% calling range, so getting called by QJo doesn't tell you that pushing 63o is wrong.

      The chip-based Nash pushing range is 85% which does not include 63o, but that assumes you will get called 82% of the time.