HEM positional win rates

    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,697
      I have my HEM report tab open at the moment. It says that my bb/100 winrate from the big blind is -42.26.

      My overall win rate is 4.2/100 which is not too bad for shorthanded, small stakes, as far as I understand it.

      now, if we play 100 hands, with an average of 5.5 players at our table, we have around 18 orbits this means we pay the BB 18 times. So, if we fold our BB every time ( or if the pot is limped, invest no money in the hand) we would expect our winrate to be around -18bb/100 in the big blind (in fact it might even be less than this, since sometimes we might flop a decent hand and villain might check it down to us).

      So, unless I have misunderstood something, I would be better off just folding every single big blind and never investing any money from that position.

      Have I missed something? Is there an obvious explanation for this?

      Thanks in advance
      Tim
  • 7 replies
    • Berzerger
      Berzerger
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.03.2008 Posts: 910
      Well, technically it would be more profitable to just check/fold the big blind rather than continue playing it as usual. But it's even more profitable to learn playing it correctly, I mean you wouldn't fold queens from BB would you? You'll be out of position against all players except one, that's an obvious disadvantage so you'll have to have a strong hand to get involved, or one with lots of potential like small pocket pairs. I wouldn't recommend suited connectors as they don't play very well oop. Just look at your losing hands from BB and ask yourself "why am I losing money? How could this have been prevented?" Eventually the hands you play well out of BB will (over)compensate for the losses you take by posting the blind every orbit.
    • Leito99
      Leito99
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.07.2009 Posts: 754
      i agree
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Sample Size?
    • Ryyti
      Ryyti
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.03.2008 Posts: 2,971
      Originally posted by Tim64
      I have my HEM report tab open at the moment. It says that my bb/100 winrate from the big blind is -42.26.

      My overall win rate is 4.2/100 which is not too bad for shorthanded, small stakes, as far as I understand it.

      now, if we play 100 hands, with an average of 5.5 players at our table, we have around 18 orbits this means we pay the BB 18 times. So, if we fold our BB every time ( or if the pot is limped, invest no money in the hand) we would expect our winrate to be around -18bb/100 in the big blind (in fact it might even be less than this, since sometimes we might flop a decent hand and villain might check it down to us).

      So, unless I have misunderstood something, I would be better off just folding every single big blind and never investing any money from that position.

      Have I missed something? Is there an obvious explanation for this?

      Thanks in advance
      Tim
      If you fold every BB, your winrate would be -100bb/100. After all, you are talking about winrate from BB, right?
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Yes if you look at positional stats totally yes ;)
    • Tim64
      Tim64
      Black
      Joined: 02.11.2008 Posts: 7,697
      sample size = 35k hands.
      Berzerger, thanks for the advice.

      Really just wanted to understand why it was so big - hadn't thought about the fact it would be -100bb/100 if we folded everytime - good point.

      So actually one just wants it to be as small a negative number as poss, but it's always going to be negative, right?
    • pzhon
      pzhon
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      In all but the softest games, or when you play heads-up, you should expect to lose money from both blinds.

      If you don't recover at least half of the big blind, that usually indicates that you are misplaying from the big blind. That would give you a win rate of -50 bb/100. In full ring games, you tend to lose more from the big blind than you do in shorthanded games. Many players recover more than 2/3 of the big blind in 6-max games, for a win rate of -33 bb/100 or better. So, there may be room for improvement.