[NL2-NL10] NL10 SH - JT flop nuts

    • StaticMoth
      Joined: 22.05.2009 Posts: 2,642
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)

      Known players:
      BB (Hero):

      Preflop: Hero is BB with T, J.
      MP3 raises to $0.30, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.20.

      Flop: ($0.65) Q, A, K (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.41, MP3 calls $0.41.

      Turn: ($1.47) A (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.10, MP3 calls $1.10.

      River: ($3.67) 6 (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.50, MP3 calls $2.50.

      Final Pot: $8.67.

      Villain is 17/17/1.8AF

      Since the board usually hits his EP open range really well, I decided to donk in expecting him to call almost certainly thinking I have some kind of an ace rag or even raise if he hit two pair.

      I guess I should've bet bigger on the river, since any ace was calling anyway.

      "Bonus question" - against such a regish player, would I bet/fold the river if he decided to raise big indicating AQ/AK ?
  • 3 replies
    • kymupa
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364
      Well.. first of all I like folding preflop. We are OOP and our hand sucks a little against his range.

      C/r flop is much better because he is always cbetting on that flop but he won't call you with 88 for example.

      Sth like $3 on the river is ok and against the regs at NL10 you can fold to a raise because they are pretty much raising only boats there.
    • StaticMoth
      Joined: 22.05.2009 Posts: 2,642
      Originally posted by kymupa

      C/r flop is much better because he is always cbetting on that flop but he won't call you with 88 for example.
      In case he has an underpair, he's obv folding indeed, but he very often has hit the board as well and c-r would be really strong and might scare him away with a bare ace ... Imo donking indicates that, well ... I'm a donk :f_biggrin: , who hit either a weak ace or just trying smth weird to push him off, so he'll just call down with his hand if I don't bet too big, because people always try to slowplay their monsters in lower limits OR go crazy and bet uberstrong ...

      I think this donking business is a "balance" between those two and not making my hand obvious ... ooor what?
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510

      Both arguments are valid and it's just not possible to define a winner without a better read on villain, since most of the decision hinges on two factors we can't really quantify properly: whether he's capable of ever folding something like two pairs on the flop, and whether he's actually going to c-bet stuff like KT or check those back.

      If he is capable of folding two pairs then indeed check/raising will look the scariest and might prevent us from stacking him, which would lose us more money than to not have him c-bet stuff like underpairs/bluffs in that spot. If he's not capable of ever laying down two pairs, then it doesn't matter what line we take against those hands and we should focus on actually getting the extra value out of underpairs/bluffs that can c-bet the flop.

      If he's going to c-bet stuff like KTs, then we don't lose value by checking. If he's going to check those back, then we're losing value against those hands by not forcing them to pay up for tying with us.

      Overall I'd tend to assume most nl10 players won't be able to fold two pairs on that flop and will blindly c-bet stuff like KT just because c-betting is what everybody advises, so I'd check/raise anyway. If you feel your opponent is somewhat brighter than the rest of the field, then donking out might easily become the better line.

      Hope it helps.