[NL2-NL10] NL10 SH, KK, overpair, wet(ish) board, pot-sized bet on the river

    • Yuris125
      Yuris125
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.03.2009 Posts: 319
      Hi,

      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      Play hand

      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)

      Known players:
      MP3:
      $10.25
      CO:
      $10.00
      BU:
      $8.49
      SB (Hero):
      $13.85
      BB:
      $8.45
      MP2:
      $18.39


      Preflop: Hero is SB with K, K.
      MP2 raises to $0.30, 3 folds, Hero raises to $1.00, BB folds, MP2 calls $0.70.

      Flop: ($2.1) 2, 9, 4 (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.30, MP2 calls $1.30.

      Turn: ($4.7) 5 (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.60, MP2 calls $2.60.

      River: ($9.9) 9 (2 players)
      Hero checks, MP2 bets $13.49(All-In), Hero calls $8.95.

      Final Pot: $32.34.

      Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF/Hands)
      MP2 - 24/20/1.3/341, 0/8 fold to 3bet

      This seems to be pretty straightforward until the river. Didn't see value in betting, decided to play check/call. When he shoved, wasn't sure if it still was a call, but talked myself into it. The reasoning was: with a rather wet board, he probably would raise flop for protection with a top pair or a set. Calling 2 bets and shoving river doesn't make much sense with these hands. If he had a flush, he probably would raise turn for value and protection. At the same time, the board just invites a bluff as a response to a river check. Of course he could slowplay A:club: x:club: , but I thought he didn't have a flush often enough for me to fold here. Another reason for calling was that although his overall AF is 1.3, it's inf on the river, so it does look like he likes river bluffs

      In this particular case, it was a good call. However, do you think it's correct to call here in general?

      Thanks
      Yuri
  • 4 replies
    • johnbeattie85
      johnbeattie85
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.09.2008 Posts: 716
      Hi,

      Don't really like check/call. In this situation he has very few hands on the river to bluff with. Maybe stuff like a pair with backdoor clubs or something. If he shoved TT-JJ, it was most likely a poorly conceived value bet. If this villain thinks TT-JJ are good enough to shove, he is also going to call your bet. The problem with checking is that a lot of players will check stuff like TT-JJ and even QQ behind. So you miss value when ahead, and get owned when he has AcKc. If you check, it would normally be to check/fold since you don’t think he will call worse stuff.

      If villain is never folding to 3bets and playing back, as might be the case here, I think checking the turn to induce would be the best option.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      sucks when he shoves river and you have to realize he is not really doing that with TT/JJ. So you have to hope he is turning his middle pp-s or hands like Ax that he floated on the flop into bluff. So I think river is c/f, since I don´t see villains just bluffing enough times and hands that he is shoving for value beat yours

      Interesting hand, would like to know what he had :)
    • Yuris125
      Yuris125
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.03.2009 Posts: 319
      Originally posted by johnbeattie85
      If villain is never folding to 3bets and playing back, as might be the case here, I think checking the turn to induce would be the best option.
      And then check/raise all-in? I thought about it, but decided against it, because he could easily have a high club, and giving him a free card didn't look like a good idea. I'm not sure how often he plays back, after all his overall AF is just 1.3, it's just river where it's so high. Although I know that 300 hands is not enough sample size to adequately assess his AF on each street

      If I don't check/raise on the turn, should I just shove on the river instead of check-calling? check-fold looks weak, I wouldn't expect him to play sets this passively, so a flush is the only hand which beats me and makes sense

      Also some more interesting numbers... his Fold to Cbet is 39%, Fold to Turn CBet 0%. And I was playing quite loosely, 30/25, so he could easily suspect me of having nothing (although I would rarely 3bet a UTG raiser without a premium hand, and definitely not someone who doesn't fold to 3bets :) )

      Originally posted by Kaitz20
      Interesting hand, would like to know what he had :)


      A 2 :)
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by Kaitz20
      Interesting hand, would like to know what he had :)


      A 2 :) [/quote]I give too much credit to nl 10 players
      Nh