[NL20-NL50] NL25 SH: AA - River pairs top pair, any value?

    • tcs35
      Joined: 31.01.2009 Posts: 3,583
      I am just wondering whether I can make a thin value bet on the river considering how many hands he seems to continue with post flop. I think he can have busted flush draws, many pocket pairs, etc.

      FCB: 51%
      FTCB: 38%

      $0.13/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
      5 Players
      Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

      UTG ($40.95)
      Hero ($28.50)
      CO ($25)
      BTN ($30.19)
      BB ($12.78)

      Pre-Flop: ($0.25, 5 players) Hero is UTG+1 A:heart: A:club:
      1 fold, Hero raises to $1, CO calls $1, 2 folds

      Flop: 4:diamond: J:diamond: 3:spade: ($2.25, 2 players)
      Hero bets $1.50, CO calls $1.50

      Turn: 5:club: ($5.25, 2 players)
      Hero bets $3.25, CO calls $3.25

      River: J:spade: ($11.75, 2 players)
      Hero ($22.75)?
  • 1 reply
    • MaestroOfZerg
      Joined: 17.11.2008 Posts: 5,510

      All-in-all I wouldn't really expect villain to put us on some busted diamonds and call us down with 88 or something. Since it's hard to give him QQ-KK and busted diamonds won't call a bet from us, I think it's really thin to bet that river.

      It's not out of the question if your read is right and you make it small enough. Do be careful about postflop stats tho, they are all conditioned by his preflop range. Tight players only get involved with strong hands preflop, so they always have something decent postflop, which explains them not folding too often. I expect we'll run into Jx+ a good amount when we bet the river and he doesn't fold.

      Hope it helps.