Shoving SB into BB

    • jbpatzer
      jbpatzer
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      Joined: 22.11.2009 Posts: 6,944
      I've just started playing SSS on NL10, and I've been thinking about whether it's profitable to play push or fold when everyone folds round to you in the SB. I've tried it, pushing very wide (probably about 65%) and I've been called once (and won! :D ) out of so many shoves that I've lost count (I've played about 5K hands in total). I just watched pzhon's nice 'Golden Rule' video, and it made me think of the following question: How tight would the BB have to be calling for it to be profitable to shove ATC from the SB? Now, if I had SnG Wiz, I could answer this myself. Any of you nice people want to tell me the answer? I'm guessing that pushing ATC is probably very profitable, at least on NL10.
  • 28 replies
    • jbpatzer
      jbpatzer
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      Joined: 22.11.2009 Posts: 6,944
      Used the Equilator to answer my own question. By my calculation, if you shove ATC from the SB for 20BB, BB has to be calling with the top 20% of hands or tighter for this to break even. That's

      55+, A3s+, A7o+, K8s+, K7o+, QTs+, QJo+

      I don't believe anyone at the low stakes is calling that wide from the BB.

      The only hand that ever called me was KK when I shoved A2s, and even then I hit the A! :D
    • Waiboy
      Waiboy
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      Joined: 18.09.2008 Posts: 4,877
      Hey jb

      I'm no SSS'er, but isn't this all covered off by the Sklansky-Chubokov model?

      Here's the link to the Steals and Resteals SSS silver article and for 20BB the article lists this as your shoving range:

      22+, A2+, KT+, K9s+, QTs+

      Sorry if this is missing the point or grossly incorrect... just remembered the notion from my brief foray into SSS.
    • jbpatzer
      jbpatzer
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      Joined: 22.11.2009 Posts: 6,944
      Oooops! Delete!
    • jbpatzer
      jbpatzer
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      Joined: 22.11.2009 Posts: 6,944
      Originally posted by Waiboy
      Hey jb

      I'm no SSS'er, but isn't this all covered off by the Sklansky-Chubokov model?

      Here's the link to the Steals and Resteals SSS silver article and for 20BB the article lists this as your shoving range:

      22+, A2+, KT+, K9s+, QTs+

      Sorry if this is missing the point or grossly incorrect... just remembered the notion from my brief foray into SSS.
      I can believe that's the Nash equilibrium for shoving SB into BB, but if the BB calls too tight, it must be exploitable by shoving looser. I just wanted to know how tight they have to be for it to be profitable to shove ATC. I'll have a look at that article too though. Thx.
    • Anssi
      Anssi
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      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 2,173
      If he calls with 11.6% or less, you can push any2. If he knows you push any2, he can call with 57.5%.
    • jbpatzer
      jbpatzer
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      Joined: 22.11.2009 Posts: 6,944
      Originally posted by Anssi
      If he calls with 11.6% or less, you can push any2. If he knows you push any2, he can call with 57.5%.
      Thanks. Is that from SnG Wiz?
    • pzhon
      pzhon
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      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      Originally posted by Waiboy
      I'm no SSS'er, but isn't this all covered off by the Sklansky-Chubokov model?
      The Sklansky-Chubukov numbers answer a different question. Sklansky asked (and Chubukov answered) how much you can push from the small blind if you have to turn your hand face-up first. That's an additional penalty. Any hand you can push even after you let your opponents play perfectly can also be pushed when you don't reveal it.

      Here is a [URL=http://www2.decf.berkeley.edu/~chubukov/rankings.html]table of Sklansky-Chubukov numbers[/URL]. The blinds are 1/2, so the Sklansky-Chubukov number of 23 for JTo means that if the stacks are under 11.5 bb, then turning your hand up and pushing is better than folding. Pushing is better than folding regardless of the range with which your opponent will call.

      Some hands are correct pushes even if they are not Sklansky-Chubukov pushes. A hand like 76s does not have a high Sklansky-Chubukov number, since turning it face up lets your opponent call with trash like J4o. In practice, when you push without showing your hand, your opponents won't know to call with J4o. An opponent could call with a range which would punish pushing with 76s, but this would lose money against the other hands you would push. So, the Nash equilibrium pushing range for 20 bb is not just the 25% you can push with the Sklansky-Chubukov handicap: 22 Ax KTo K9s QTs. The 20 bb Nash equilibrium is to push about 41% 22 Ax K3s K9o Q5s Q9o J6s J9o T6s T9o 96s 98o 86s 75s 65s 54s, and to call a 22% range.

      Note the SB loses 18.3% of a big blind on average by playing push/fold. The Nash equilibrium does not mean the SB wins the blinds back, and the SB is out of position against the BB preflop. When the stacks are very short, the SB gains chips, since the advantage of posting a smaller blind dominates. When the stacks are deeper, then SB loses chips as being out of position is more important. When the stacks are deeper, the SB loses more, and you should look for alternatives to playing push/fold.

      The idea of Sklansky's thought experiment was that when your opponent has a wide range, you may be able to push many times the size of the pot with a decent hand. This applies to restealing against players who steal with a wide range. I plan to discuss this in a future video.

      Incidentally, all of these models assume that there is no rake. You want a little more equity when you are called when there is a rake.
    • Andresart
      Andresart
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      Joined: 05.01.2009 Posts: 66
      The biggest problem from sklansky is that it is even more profitable to open raise ATC than sklansk, and they need something like 60% of 3bet sb vs bb to make you descend your %OR if he just raise/fold. This, playing SS of course.
    • pzhon
      pzhon
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      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      Originally posted by Andresart
      The biggest problem from sklansky is that it is even more profitable to open raise ATC than sklansk, and they need something like 60% of 3bet sb vs bb to make you descend your %OR if he just raise/fold. This, playing SS of course.
      It is a good point that a small raise may be more profitable than shoving. However, it doesn't take that many 3-bets to deter you from raising ATC. If you minraise in a 1-2 blind structure, then you risk 1.5 bb to try to steal 1.5 bb, and the BB only needs to defend 50% of the time to prevent you from having an immediate profit. If you raise to 3 bb, then you risk 2.5 bb to steal 1.5 bb, and the BB only needs to defend 1.5/(1.5+2.5) = 37.5% of the time to prevent you from having an immediate profit.

      In microstakes game, many players don't understand the positional advantage of the BB against the SB, and they do not defend enough against small blind raises. The average in some games is about 30% defenses. That means if you don't have any history with someone, you should show an immediate profit raising to 3 bb with ATC. In higher stakes games, definitely by the time the big blind is $2, you will not show an immediate profit, and you will find many players who defend often enough in lower stakes games, too. Quite often, they defend by calling, and you may be able to hit something or find a profitable continuation bet often enough to raise widely even if you don't show an immediate profit.

      It is definitely worth considering whether players have a weakness against an open push.
    • OONOShortstack
      OONOShortstack
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    • pzhon
      pzhon
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      For it to be worth confusing your opponents, they have to notice what you are doing, they have to recognize how to adjust, they have to be willing to change to exploit you, and yet they must be unable to see through your mixed strategy. That is quite a parlay, and not one you should usually worry about with a big blind of 10 cents. Normally, you should not spend much money making plays you think are suboptimal in order to throw off your opponents' reads. You should just exploit them.
    • OONOShortstack
      OONOShortstack
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      ,
    • Andresart
      Andresart
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      Joined: 05.01.2009 Posts: 66
      Position is overrated playing w 20bb, because there is not pot control, and each one can put all his stack in without making overbets.

      I prefer to minraise cause not many people defend calling vs OR to 2.5bb, or even to 2bb. There is a huge benefit OR 100% in SB, if you make numbers (as you might have done :P ) you ´ll se that vs one person who folds 80% in steal bvb, you are winning 1.25bb/hand you do it. Imagine you have 2 clean sb vs this guy/100 hands. Your WR is 2.5bb/100 just doing it.
    • Andresart
      Andresart
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      Joined: 05.01.2009 Posts: 66
      and people do not tend to sklansky AA, so their ranges are really desequilibrated. This, when a villain has a pair of notes from you, you are loosing loads of money (if he is competent).
    • pzhon
      pzhon
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      Joined: 17.06.2010 Posts: 1,151
      Originally posted by Andresart
      There is a huge benefit OR 100% in SB, if you make numbers (as you might have done :P ) you ´ll se that vs one person who folds 80% in steal bvb, you are winning 1.25bb/hand you do it.
      In 5 trials, you steal the blinds 4 times for 6 bb, so to make 6.25 bb total, you need to win 0.25 bb the fifth time, out of position against a top 20% hand. That is too optimistic.

      I don't think you will successfully steal the blinds that often unless you make a large raise. A raise to 3 bb may yield 65-70% folds, which is enough to show a small immediate profit, but nothing like 1.25 bb/hand.
    • OONOShortstack
      OONOShortstack
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      .
    • pzhon
      pzhon
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      The Nash pushing range is 41%. I'm not sure what the other percentages you gave mean.

      You can view the Nash pushing range as an unexploitable strategy. However, this does not mean it is optimal in practice. First, you may do better than to play push/fold. Second, since most of your opponents are not calling with the Nash calling strategy, you can adjust your pushing range to do better. Third, you might give up some hands which are marginally profitable according to the Nash equilibrium because the Nash equilibrium was calculated with no rake.
    • OONOShortstack
      OONOShortstack
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      .
    • OONOShortstack
      OONOShortstack
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